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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 17, 2026 20:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
1 – 1
Final score
1. FC Köln
#12 · 8 pts
K. Mets (ast. H. Wahl) 69'
(pen.) 86' L. Waldschmidt
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave 1. FC Köln a 50% win probability (draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 28%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Köln. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Köln.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
1
1.79
Actual xG
1.25
0
Saves
4
49%
Possession
51%
8
Corners
5
11
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
46'
L. Maina / J. Thielmann ↕
51'
M. Bulter / R. Ache ↕
↕ L. Ritzka / M. Saliakas
65'
⚽K. Mets · ast. H. Wahl
69'
70'
K. Lund / A. Castro-Montes ↕
Andreas Hountondji
71'
Tomoya Ando
76'
↕ A. Hountondji / C. Metcalfe
77'
79'
L. Waldschmidt / I. Johannesson ↕
79'
F. Chavez / S. Sebulonsen ↕
84'
86'
(pen.) L. Waldschmidt⚽
Mathias Pereira Lage
87'
87'
Said El Mala
↕ M. Pereira Lage / M. Kaars
87'
Danel Sinani
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
28.35%
FC
21.12%
X ←
50.53%
1.
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 21.12% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.68
1.79
+1.11
1.
1.91
1.25
-0.66
FC St. Pauli dominated by xG (1.79 vs 1.25). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
22
G 6.20
3 K. Mets K. Mets 1 ⚽ D 7.30
5
1 👟 D 7.20
15 T. Ando T. Ando D 6.60
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka 65' M 6.30
7 J. Irvine J. Irvine M 6.90
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen M 6.60
11
M 6.70
28
Mathias Pereira Lage 87' F 6.60
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F 6.70
27 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 77' F 6.60
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay F
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 13' M 6.30
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie D
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars 11' F 6.30
2 M. Saliakas M. Saliakas 25' D 6.20
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
1 M. Schwäbe M. Schwäbe G 8.70
17 A. Castro-Montes A. Castro-Montes 70' D 6.30
39
D 7.20
22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 6.30
28 S. Sebulonsen S. Sebulonsen 79' D 6.30
16 J. Kamiński J. Kamiński M 6.90
6 E. Martel E. Martel M 6.90
18 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson 79' M 7.20
29 J. Thielmann J. Thielmann 45' M 6.70
13 S. El Mala S. El Mala F 6.30
9 R. Ache R. Ache 51' F 6.20
Bench
32 K. Lund K. Lund 20' D 6.90
37 L. Maina L. Maina 45' M 6.30
7 L. Waldschmidt L. Waldschmidt 1 ⚽ 11' F 7.30
30 M. Bülter M. Bülter 39' F 7.20
5 T. Krauß T. Krauß M
Best on the pitch
M. Schwäbe
M. Schwäbe
G · 1.
8.70
· 45 pass
K. Mets
K. Mets
D · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 61 pass
L. Waldschmidt
L. Waldschmidt
F · 1.
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 12 pass
M. Bülter
M. Bülter
F · 1.
7.20
· 9 pass
D · FC
7.20
1 👟
· 61 pass
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson
M · 1.
7.20
· 44 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 28 20% — — —
K. Mets D 90 7.30 1 — 1 61 52% — — —
D 90 7.20 — 1 — 61 55% — — —
T. Ando D 90 6.60 — — 2 46 39% 4 1 —
L. Ritzka M 65 6.30 — — 1 27 21% — — —
J. Irvine M 90 6.90 — — — 40 32% 1 — —
M. Rasmussen M 90 6.60 — — 1 51 40% 1 — —
M 90 6.70 — — — 29 21% 1 — —
Mathias Pereira Lage F 87 6.60 — — 2 13 9% 2 1 —
D. Sinani F 90 6.70 — — — 38 30% — 1 —
A. Hountondji F 77 6.60 — — 3 9 8% — 1 —
C. Metcalfe M 13 6.30 — — — 3 1% 1 — —
M. Kaars F 11 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
M. Saliakas D 25 6.20 — — — 15 8% 1 — —
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Schwäbe G 90 8.70 — — — 45 34% — — —
A. Castro-Montes D 70 6.30 — — 1 17 10% 2 — —
D 90 7.20 — — 1 65 57% 2 — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 90 6.30 — — — 74 62% — — —
S. Sebulonsen D 79 6.30 — — — 36 28% — — —
J. Kamiński M 90 6.90 — — — 30 27% — — —
E. Martel M 90 6.90 — — — 58 48% 4 — —
Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson M 79 7.20 — — — 44 36% 5 — —
J. Thielmann M 45 6.70 — — 1 9 5% — — —
S. El Mala F 90 6.30 — — 2 12 11% — 1 —
R. Ache F 51 6.20 — — — 8 7% — — —
K. Lund D 20 6.90 — — — 14 14% 1 — —
L. Maina M 45 6.30 — — — 17 16% — — —
L. Waldschmidt F 11 7.30 1 — 1 12 7% — — —
M. Bülter F 39 7.20 — — — 9 8% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Köln.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
The model assigned 28% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 21% to a draw, and 50% to an 1. FC Köln win.