← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30 April 17, 2026 22:30
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
1 – 1
Final score
1. FC Köln
#14 · 32 pts
K. Mets (ast. H. Wahl) 69'
(pen.) 86' L. Waldschmidt

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave 1. FC Köln a 50% win probability (draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 28%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Köln. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for 1. FC Köln.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
1
1.79
Actual xG
1.25
0
Saves
4
49%
Possession
51%
8
Corners
5
11
Tackles
14
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
46'
L. Maina / J. Thielmann ↕
51'
M. Bulter / R. Ache ↕
↕ L. Ritzka / M. Saliakas
65'
⚽K. Mets · ast. H. Wahl
69'
70'
K. Lund / A. Castro-Montes ↕
Andreas Hountondji
71'
Tomoya Ando
76'
↕ A. Hountondji / C. Metcalfe
77'
79'
L. Waldschmidt / I. Johannesson ↕
79'
F. Chavez / S. Sebulonsen ↕
84'
86'
(pen.) L. Waldschmidt⚽
Mathias Pereira Lage
87'
87'
Said El Mala
↕ M. Pereira Lage / M. Kaars
87'
Danel Sinani
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
28.35%
FC
21.12%
X ←
50.53%
1.
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 21.12% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.68
1.79
+1.11
1.
1.91
1.25
-0.66
FC St. Pauli dominated by xG (1.79 vs 1.25). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
22
G 6.20
3
K. Mets 1 ⚽ D 7.30
5
1 👟 D 7.20
15
Tomoya Ando D 6.60
21
L. Ritzka 65' M 6.30
7
Jackson Irvine M 6.90
20
M. Rasmussen M 6.60
11
M 6.70
28
Mathias Pereira Lage 87' F 6.60
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F 6.70
27
A. Hountondji 77' F 6.60
Bench
9
A. Ceesay F
24
C. Metcalfe 13' M 6.30
23
L. Oppie D
19
M. Kaars 11' F 6.30
2
M. Saliakas 25' D 6.20
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 4-4-2
1 Marvin Schwäbe Marvin Schwäbe G 8.70
17 Alessio Castro-Montes Alessio Castro-Montes 70' D 6.30
39
D 7.20
22
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 6.30
28 Sebastian Sebulonsen Sebastian Sebulonsen 79' D 6.30
16 Jakub Kamiński Jakub Kamiński M 6.90
6
E. Martel M 6.90
18 Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson 79' M 7.20
29 Jan Uwe Thielmann Jan Uwe Thielmann 45' M 6.70
13 Said El Mala Said El Mala F 6.30
9 R. Ache R. Ache 51' F 6.20
Bench
32 Kristoffer Lund Kristoffer Lund 20' D 6.90
37 Linton Maina Linton Maina 45' M 6.30
7 Luca Waldschmidt Luca Waldschmidt 1 ⚽ 11' F 7.30
30 Marius Bülter Marius Bülter 39' F 7.20
5 Tom Krauß Tom Krauß M
Best on the pitch
Marvin Schwäbe
Marvin Schwäbe
G · 1.
8.70
· 45 pass
K. Mets
D · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 61 pass
Luca Waldschmidt
Luca Waldschmidt
F · 1.
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 12 pass
Marius Bülter
Marius Bülter
F · 1.
7.20
· 9 pass
D · FC
7.20
1 👟
· 61 pass
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
M · 1.
7.20
· 44 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.20 — — — 28 20% — — —
K. Mets D 90 7.30 1 — 1 61 52% — — —
D 90 7.20 — 1 — 61 55% — — —
Tomoya Ando D 90 6.60 — — 2 46 39% 4 1 —
L. Ritzka M 65 6.30 — — 1 27 21% — — —
Jackson Irvine M 90 6.90 — — — 40 32% 1 — —
M. Rasmussen M 90 6.60 — — 1 51 40% 1 — —
M 90 6.70 — — — 29 21% 1 — —
Mathias Pereira Lage F 87 6.60 — — 2 13 9% 2 1 —
D. Sinani F 90 6.70 — — — 38 30% — 1 —
A. Hountondji F 77 6.60 — — 3 9 8% — 1 —
C. Metcalfe M 13 6.30 — — — 3 1% 1 — —
M. Kaars F 11 6.30 — — — 2 1% — — —
M. Saliakas D 25 6.20 — — — 15 8% 1 — —
1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Marvin Schwäbe G 90 8.70 — — — 45 34% — — —
Alessio Castro-Montes D 70 6.30 — — 1 17 10% 2 — —
D 90 7.20 — — 1 65 57% 2 — —
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey D 90 6.30 — — — 74 62% — — —
Sebastian Sebulonsen D 79 6.30 — — — 36 28% — — —
Jakub Kamiński M 90 6.90 — — — 30 27% — — —
E. Martel M 90 6.90 — — — 58 48% 4 — —
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson M 79 7.20 — — — 44 36% 5 — —
Jan Uwe Thielmann M 45 6.70 — — 1 9 5% — — —
Said El Mala F 90 6.30 — — 2 12 11% — 1 —
R. Ache F 51 6.20 — — — 8 7% — — —
Kristoffer Lund D 20 6.90 — — — 14 14% 1 — —
Linton Maina M 45 6.30 — — — 17 16% — — —
Luca Waldschmidt F 11 7.30 1 — 1 12 7% — — —
Marius Bülter F 39 7.20 — — — 9 8% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–1 1. FC Köln.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
The model assigned 28% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 21% to a draw, and 50% to an 1. FC Köln win.