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2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7 October 11, 2026 13:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
#7 · 12 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Karlsruher SC
#17 · 8 pts
Abdoulie Ceesay (ast. Connor Metcalfe) 32'
Lars Ritzka (ast. Eric Smith) 51'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC St. Pauli a 43% win probability (draw 29%, Karlsruher SC 26%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
5
0.84
Actual xG
1.18
5
Saves
4
47%
Possession
53%
6
Corners
9
22
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽Abdoulie Ceesay · ast. Connor Metcalfe
32'
34'
Sandro Tremoulet
48'
Marvin Wanitzek
⚽Lars Ritzka · ast. Eric Smith
51'
↕ Youssoupha Niang / Martijn Kaars
68'
68'
Kevin Wiethaup / Rafael Pinto Pedrosa ↕
70'
Jason Ponente-Ramirez / Viktor Bergh ↕
70'
Sebastian Jung / Sandro Tremoulet ↕
70'
Lilian Egloff / Louey Ben Farhat ↕
↕ Abdoulie Ceesay / Ricky-Jade Jones
73'
↕ Mathias Rasmussen / Samuel Klein
73'
80'
Tim Civeja / Danyal Hakan Zor ↕
↕ Lars Ritzka / Adam Dźwigała
82'
↕ Connor Metcalfe / Branimir Hrgota
82'
Branimir Hrgota
87'
Pre-match prediction
43.77%
FC ←
29.81%
X
26.42%
Karlsruher
we assigned to the actual result (FC St. Pauli) 43.77% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
1.42
0.84
-0.58
Karlsruher
0.57
1.18
+0.61
Karlsruher SC dominated by xG (1.18 vs 0.84). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Hertha BSC Hertha BSC 9 25
2 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg 9 18
3 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Kaiserslautern 9 18
4 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 9 16
5 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg 9 16
6 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 9 15
7 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 9 12
8 VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück 9 11
9 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 9 11
10 Eintracht Braunschweig Eintracht Braunschweig 9 10
11 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 9 10
12 SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9 9
13 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 9 8
14 VfL Bochum VfL Bochum 9 8
15 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 9 8
16 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 9 8
17 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 9 8
18 SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 9 8
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 4-1-3-2
1 B. Voll B. Voll G 7.54
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie D 6.85
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka 1 ⚽ 82' D 7.49
4 D. Nemeth D. Nemeth D 7.09
11 A. Pyrka A. Pyrka D 6.77
8 E. Smith E. Smith 1 👟 M 7.70
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita M 6.70
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen 73' M 6.19
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 1 👟 82' M 6.99
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay 1 ⚽ 73' F 8.20
7 Y. Niang Y. Niang 68' F 6.38
Bench
25 A. Dźwigała A. Dźwigała 8' D 6.59
10 B. Hrgota B. Hrgota 8' F 6.51
33 D. Mitov D. Mitov G 0.00
14 E. Ahlstrand E. Ahlstrand M 0.00
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars 22' F 6.58
26 R. Jones R. Jones 17' F 6.90
22 Samuel Klein Samuel Klein 17' M 6.52
17 S. Banks S. Banks F 0.00
18 T. Hara T. Hara F 0.00
Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 3-5-2
1 H. Bernat H. Bernat G 6.87
24 S. Trémoulet S. Trémoulet 70' D 6.39
22 C. Kobald C. Kobald D 6.62
28 M. Franke M. Franke D 6.90
3 D. Ofli D. Ofli M 6.17
33 V. Bergh V. Bergh 70' M 5.29
26 D. H. Zor D. H. Zor 80' M 6.41
10 M. Wanitzek M. Wanitzek M 6.49
36 Rafael Pinto Pedrosa Rafael Pinto Pedrosa 68' M 6.26
19 Louey Ben Farhat Louey Ben Farhat 70' F 6.45
13 S. Fukuda S. Fukuda F 5.82
Bench
37 J. Ponente J. Ponente 20' F 6.81
7 K. Wiethaup K. Wiethaup 22' M 5.99
25 L. Egloff L. Egloff 20' M 5.62
11 N. Eichinger N. Eichinger M 0.00
15 Paul Scholl Paul Scholl D 0.00
30 R. Himmelmann R. Himmelmann G 0.00
2 S. Jung S. Jung 20' D 6.19
6 S. Väänänen S. Väänänen M 0.00
23 T. Civeja T. Civeja 10' M 6.01
Best on the pitch
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 15 pass
E. Smith
E. Smith
M · FC
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 59 pass
B. Voll
B. Voll
G · FC
7.54
· 44 pass
L. Ritzka
L. Ritzka
D · FC
7.49
1 ⚽
2 shots · 35 pass
D. Nemeth
D. Nemeth
D · FC
7.09
· 41 pass
C. Metcalfe
C. Metcalfe
M · FC
6.99
1 👟
2 shots · 29 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Voll G 90 7.54 — — 0 44 24% 0 — —
L. Oppie D 90 6.85 — — 0 30 25% 3 — —
L. Ritzka D 82 7.49 1 — 2 35 29% 0 — —
D. Nemeth D 90 7.09 — — 0 41 37% 3 — —
A. Pyrka D 90 6.77 — — 0 49 42% 1 — —
E. Smith M 90 7.70 — 1 1 59 52% 1 — —
J. Fujita M 90 6.70 — — 1 38 30% 3 — —
M. Rasmussen M 73 6.19 — — 0 30 25% 3 — —
C. Metcalfe M 82 6.99 — 1 2 29 21% 2 — —
Abdoulie Ceesay F 73 8.20 1 — 2 15 13% 3 — —
Y. Niang F 68 6.38 — — 2 8 6% 2 — —
A. Dźwigała D 8 6.59 — — 0 5 4% 1 — —
B. Hrgota F 8 6.51 — — 1 5 0% 0 1 —
M. Kaars F 22 6.58 — — 0 9 5% 0 — —
R. Jones F 17 6.90 — — 2 1 0% 0 — —
Samuel Klein M 17 6.52 — — 0 11 9% 0 — —
Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
H. Bernat G 90 6.87 — — 0 23 16% 0 — —
S. Trémoulet D 70 6.39 — — 0 39 35% 2 1 —
C. Kobald D 90 6.62 — — 0 54 42% 1 — —
M. Franke D 90 6.90 — — 1 65 59% 0 — —
D. Ofli M 90 6.17 — — 1 51 38% 3 — —
V. Bergh M 70 5.29 — — 1 25 14% 1 — —
D. H. Zor M 80 6.41 — — 2 51 46% 1 — —
M. Wanitzek M 90 6.49 — — 1 59 43% 0 1 —
Rafael Pinto Pedrosa M 68 6.26 — — 0 13 9% 1 — —
Louey Ben Farhat F 70 6.45 — — 1 13 10% 2 — —
S. Fukuda F 90 5.82 — — 4 15 14% 0 — —
J. Ponente F 20 6.81 — — 0 8 5% 0 — —
K. Wiethaup M 22 5.99 — — 0 24 19% 0 — —
L. Egloff M 20 5.62 — — 1 9 7% 1 — —
S. Jung D 20 6.19 — — 0 13 9% 0 — —
T. Civeja M 10 6.01 — — 0 10 9% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?
The model assigned 43% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 29% to a draw, and 26% to an Karlsruher SC win.