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2. Bundesliga · Regular Season - 1 August 09, 2026 13:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
#17 · 3 pts
1 – 1
Final score
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
#9 · 5 pts
M. Mathisen (ast. B. Hrgota) 46'
51' (ast. J. Dehm) F. Klaus
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC St. Pauli a 37% win probability (draw 31%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 31%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
7
1.91
Actual xG
1.55
6
Saves
5
58%
Possession
42%
9
Corners
2
13
Tackles
9
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽M. Mathisen · ast. B. Hrgota
46'
51'
ast. J. Dehm · F. Klaus⚽
A. Pyrka
61'
70'
A. Keller / O. Pohlmann ↕
↕ T. Hara / R. Jones
73'
76'
D. Arifi / S. Banse ↕
76'
O. Sillah / F. Klaus ↕
↕ A. Pyrka / R. Jansson
79'
↕ L. Oppie / E. Ahlstrand
85'
↕ M. Rasmussen / E. Smith
85'
87'
L. Reich / J. Dehm ↕
87'
M. Wallentowitz / S. Appelkamp ↕
Pre-match prediction
37.07%
FC
31.59%
X ←
31.34%
SpVgg
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 31.59% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
2.88
1.91
-0.97
SpVgg
0.71
1.55
+0.84
FC St. Pauli dominated by xG (1.91 vs 1.55). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg 5 13
2 Hertha BSC Hertha BSC 4 12
3 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg 5 9
4 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 4 9
5 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 4 8
6 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Kaiserslautern 5 8
7 VfL Bochum VfL Bochum 5 7
8 VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück 4 6
9 SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 5
10 Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC 4 5
11 Eintracht Braunschweig Eintracht Braunschweig 5 4
12 Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus 4 4
13 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 5 4
14 Hannover 96 Hannover 96 5 4
15 SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 5 4
16 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 5 4
17 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 4 3
18 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 4 3
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
1 B. Voll B. Voll G 7.50
15 T. Ando T. Ando D 7.50
6 M. Mathisen M. Mathisen 1 ⚽ D 8.60
4 D. Nemeth D. Nemeth D 6.70
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie 85' M 7.20
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita M 6.20
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen 85' M 7.20
11 A. Pyrka A. Pyrka 79' M 7.90
10 B. Hrgota B. Hrgota 1 👟 F 7.90
18 T. Hara T. Hara 73' F 6.50
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars F 6.20
Bench
25 A. Dźwigała A. Dźwigała D
14 E. Ahlstrand E. Ahlstrand 14' M 6.30
8 E. Smith E. Smith 14' M 6.70
47 Haron Sabah Haron Sabah M
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka D
26 R. Jones R. Jones 17' F 6.60
2 Rony Jansson Rony Jansson 11' D 6.90
17 Scott Banks Scott Banks F
30 Simon Emil Spari Simon Emil Spari G
SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-4-2
1 Florian Hellstern Florian Hellstern G 7.90
27 G. Itter G. Itter D 6.20
29 K. Keresztes K. Keresztes D 6.90
22 J. Heuer J. Heuer D 7.00
23 J. Dehm J. Dehm 1 👟 87' D 6.60
10 Ole Pohlmann Ole Pohlmann 70' M 6.60
13 P. Will P. Will M 7.00
6 S. Bansé S. Bansé 76' M 6.30
8 S. Appelkamp S. Appelkamp 87' M 7.00
7 D. Srbeny D. Srbeny F 5.90
30 F. Klaus F. Klaus 1 ⚽ 76' F 7.90
Bench
11 A. Keller A. Keller 20' M 6.60
28 D. Arifi D. Arifi 14' M 6.70
48 Jakob Krautkramer Jakob Krautkramer D
2 Lukas Reich Lukas Reich 12' D 6.90
5 Maxim Dal Maxim Dal D
21 M. Wallentowitz M. Wallentowitz 12' M 6.60
17 N. König N. König D
42 O. Sillah O. Sillah 14' F 6.90
43 Silas Prüfrock Silas Prüfrock G
Best on the pitch
M. Mathisen
M. Mathisen
D · FC
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 104 pass
A. Pyrka
A. Pyrka
M · FC
7.90
· 25 pass
B. Hrgota
B. Hrgota
F · FC
7.90
1 👟
1 shots · 28 pass
F. Klaus
F. Klaus
F · SpVgg
7.90
1 ⚽
6 shots · 30 pass
Florian Hellstern
Florian Hellstern
G · SpVgg
7.90
· 47 pass
B. Voll
B. Voll
G · FC
7.50
· 15 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
B. Voll G 90 7.50 — — — 15 10% — — —
T. Ando D 90 7.50 — — 1 68 62% — — —
M. Mathisen D 90 8.60 1 — 1 104 94% 1 — —
D. Nemeth D 90 6.70 — — 2 87 79% 1 — —
L. Oppie M 85 7.20 — — 1 31 26% — — —
J. Fujita M 90 6.20 — — — 46 39% 1 — —
M. Rasmussen M 85 7.20 — — — 53 46% 4 — —
A. Pyrka M 79 7.90 — — — 25 23% 3 1 —
B. Hrgota F 90 7.90 — 1 1 28 19% 3 — —
T. Hara F 73 6.50 — — 1 11 6% — — —
M. Kaars F 90 6.20 — — 3 17 17% — — —
E. Ahlstrand M 14 6.30 — — — 8 7% — — —
E. Smith M 14 6.70 — — — 7 5% — — —
R. Jones F 17 6.60 — — — 5 4% — — —
Rony Jansson D 11 6.90 — — — 11 9% — — —
SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Florian Hellstern G 90 7.90 — — — 47 29% — — —
G. Itter D 90 6.20 — — — 33 27% — — —
K. Keresztes D 90 6.90 — — 1 43 37% 1 — —
J. Heuer D 90 7.00 — — — 46 44% — — —
J. Dehm D 87 6.60 — 1 2 28 24% — — —
Ole Pohlmann M 70 6.60 — — — 16 15% — — —
P. Will M 90 7.00 — — — 41 36% 2 — —
S. Bansé M 76 6.30 — — — 28 24% 1 — —
S. Appelkamp M 87 7.00 — — — 33 33% 2 — —
D. Srbeny F 90 5.90 — — 2 22 13% — — —
F. Klaus F 76 7.90 1 — 6 30 26% 1 — —
A. Keller M 20 6.60 — — — 4 4% — — —
D. Arifi M 14 6.70 — — — 11 10% — — —
Lukas Reich D 12 6.90 — — — 5 3% — — —
M. Wallentowitz M 12 6.60 — — 1 1 1% 2 — —
O. Sillah F 14 6.90 — — — 4 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
The model assigned 37% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 31% to a draw, and 31% to an SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.