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FC St. Pauli - VfL Wolfsburg

Bundesliga May 16, 2026 15:30
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
vs
VfL Wolfsburg
#16 · 26 pts
Weather at kick-off 🌧️ Light rain 11.2°C 💨 13 km/h 🌧️ 33% · Hamburg
⚡ Pre-match analysis
28.27%
Win
FC St. Pauli
26.37%
Draw
45.37%
Win
VfL Wolfsburg
0.89
Expected xG
1.36

The ForzaPitch prediction gives VfL Wolfsburg a 45% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 28% for FC St. Pauli. Expected goals are 0.9 for FC St. Pauli and 1.4 for VfL Wolfsburg (total 2.2), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 14.3% probability. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for VfL Wolfsburg.

Score Matrix
↕ FC St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.6% 14.3% 9.7% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4%
1 9.4% 12.8% 8.7% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
2 4.2% 5.7% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2%
3 1.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% —
4 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 — 0.1% — — — —
Recent form
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
L RB Leipzig 2–1
L FSV Mainz 05 1–2
L 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0
D 1. FC Köln 1–1
L Bayern München 0–5
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 24%
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg
L Bayern München 0–1
D SC Freiburg 1–1
D Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0
W Union Berlin 1–2
L Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 12%
Playing profile
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
Attack
24
Defence
49
Form
23
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg
Attack
37
Defence
56
Form
36
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
FC St. Pauli
0
Draw
1
VfL Wolfsburg
L 14 Jan 2026 Bundesliga 1–2
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The model gives FC St. Pauli a 28% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 45% for an VfL Wolfsburg win.
How many goals are expected in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Expected goals: FC St. Pauli 0.9, VfL Wolfsburg 1.4 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.3%.