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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
1 – 3
Final score
VfL Wolfsburg
A. Ceesay (ast. C. Metcalfe) 57'
37' (ast. C. Eriksen) K. Koulierakis
(og) 64' N. Vasilj
80' D. Pejcinovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave VfL Wolfsburg a 44% win probability (draw 26%, FC St. Pauli 29%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg. In 2 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for VfL Wolfsburg.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
14
2
Shots on target
10
1.52
Actual xG
3.40
8
Saves
1
43%
Possession
57%
8
Corners
9
15
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
Vini Souza
33'
A. Daghim
37'
ast. C. Eriksen · K. Koulierakis⚽
↕ A. Hountondji / A. Ceesay
46'
⚽A. Ceesay · ast. C. Metcalfe
57'
64'
(og) N. Vasilj⚽
67'
Y. Gerhardt / M. Svanberg ↕
77'
(missed pen.) C. Eriksen⚽
↕ A. Dzwigala / R. Jones
77'
80'
D. Pejcinovic⚽
88'
K. Shiogai / A. Daghim ↕
A. Ceesay
88'
↕ J. Irvine / T. Hara
90'+2
↕ C. Metcalfe / M. Rasmussen
90'+2
90'+4
K. Shiogai
90'+4
M. Amoura / D. Pejcinovic ↕
90'+4
L. Majer / C. Eriksen ↕
J. Fujita
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
29.01%
FC
26.31%
X
44.68%
VfL ←
we assigned to the actual result (VfL Wolfsburg) 44.68% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.89
1.52
+0.63
VfL
1.36
3.40
+2.04
VfL Wolfsburg dominated by xG (3.40 vs 1.52). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
22 N. Vasilj N. Vasilj 1 ⚽ G 8.30
15 T. Ando T. Ando D 6.90
5 H. Wahl H. Wahl D 5.90
25 A. Dźwigała A. Dźwigała 77' D 6.70
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie M 6.00
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita M 6.60
7 J. Irvine J. Irvine M 6.50
11 A. Pyrka A. Pyrka M 6.60
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 1 👟 F 7.20
27 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 45' F 5.90
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars F 7.20
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay 1 ⚽ 49' F 7.30
1 B. Voll B. Voll G
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F
14 F. Stevens F. Stevens D
3 K. Mets K. Mets D
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka D
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen 3' M
26 R. Jones R. Jones 17' F 6.90
18 T. Hara T. Hara 3' F
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 3-1-4-2
1 K. Grabara K. Grabara G 6.60
4 K. Koulierakis K. Koulierakis 1 ⚽ D 7.90
3 D. Vavro D. Vavro D 7.00
6 J. Belocian J. Belocian D 7.20
5 Vinicius Souza Vinicius Souza M 6.20
21 J. Mæhle J. Mæhle M 6.30
24 C. Eriksen C. Eriksen 1 👟 M 6.90
32 M. Svanberg M. Svanberg 67' M 6.90
26 S. Kumbedi S. Kumbedi M 6.90
17 D. Pejčinović D. Pejčinović 1 ⚽ F 6.60
11 A. Daghim A. Daghim 88' F 7.00
Bench
25 A. Zehnter A. Zehnter D
19 J. Lindstrøm J. Lindstrøm M
40 Kevin Paredes Kevin Paredes M
7 K. Shiogai K. Shiogai 6' F
10 L. Majer L. Majer M
9 M. Amoura M. Amoura F
15 M. Jenz M. Jenz D
12 P. Pervan P. Pervan G
31 Y. Gerhardt Y. Gerhardt 27' M 6.90
Best on the pitch
N. Vasilj
N. Vasilj
G · FC
8.30
1 ⚽
· 27 pass
K. Koulierakis
K. Koulierakis
D · VfL
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 71 pass
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
C. Metcalfe
C. Metcalfe
F · FC
7.20
1 👟
1 shots · 14 pass
M. Kaars
M. Kaars
F · FC
7.20
· 17 pass
J. Belocian
J. Belocian
D · VfL
7.20
· 39 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Vasilj G 94 8.30 1 — — 27 15% — — —
T. Ando D 94 6.90 — — 1 45 39% 5 — —
H. Wahl D 94 5.90 — — — 50 45% — — —
A. Dźwigała D 77 6.70 — — — 33 24% 1 — —
L. Oppie M 94 6.00 — — — 28 17% 1 — —
J. Fujita M 94 6.60 — — 1 31 19% — — —
J. Irvine M 91 6.50 — — 1 33 21% 2 — —
A. Pyrka M 94 6.60 — — — 28 22% 3 — —
C. Metcalfe F 91 7.20 — 1 1 14 7% 2 — —
A. Hountondji F 45 5.90 — — 1 4 3% — — —
M. Kaars F 94 7.20 — — — 17 13% — — —
Abdoulie Ceesay F 49 7.30 1 — 2 8 3% 1 1 —
M. Rasmussen M 3 — — — — 1 — — — —
R. Jones F 17 6.90 — — — 3 2% — — —
T. Hara F 3 — — — — — — — — —
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
K. Grabara G 94 6.60 — — — 26 19% — — —
K. Koulierakis D 94 7.90 1 — 1 71 62% 2 — —
D. Vavro D 94 7.00 — — — 52 45% 1 — —
J. Belocian D 94 7.20 — — — 39 34% 4 — —
Vinicius Souza M 94 6.20 — — 2 32 25% 1 1 —
J. Mæhle M 94 6.30 — — — 56 46% 2 — —
C. Eriksen M 94 6.90 — 1 3 54 35% 3 — —
M. Svanberg M 67 6.90 — — 2 15 7% — — —
S. Kumbedi M 94 6.90 — — — 28 21% 3 — —
D. Pejčinović F 94 6.60 1 — 3 31 21% — — —
A. Daghim F 88 7.00 — — 3 15 12% — 1 —
K. Shiogai F 6 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Y. Gerhardt M 27 6.90 — — — 13 11% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The model assigned 29% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 26% to a draw, and 44% to an VfL Wolfsburg win.