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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34 May 16, 2026 15:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
1 – 3
Final score
VfL Wolfsburg
#16 · 29 pts
A. Ceesay (ast. C. Metcalfe) 57'
37' (ast. C. Eriksen) K. Koulierakis
(og) 64' N. Vasilj
80' D. Pejcinovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave VfL Wolfsburg a 44% win probability (draw 26%, FC St. Pauli 29%). The final result was FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg. In 1 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for VfL Wolfsburg.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
14
2
Shots on target
10
1.52
Actual xG
3.40
8
Saves
1
43%
Possession
57%
8
Corners
9
15
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
18'
Vini Souza
33'
A. Daghim
37'
ast. C. Eriksen · K. Koulierakis⚽
↕ A. Hountondji / A. Ceesay
46'
⚽A. Ceesay · ast. C. Metcalfe
57'
64'
(og) N. Vasilj⚽
67'
Y. Gerhardt / M. Svanberg ↕
77'
(missed pen.) C. Eriksen⚽
↕ A. Dzwigala / R. Jones
77'
80'
D. Pejcinovic⚽
88'
K. Shiogai / A. Daghim ↕
A. Ceesay
88'
↕ J. Irvine / T. Hara
90'+2
↕ C. Metcalfe / M. Rasmussen
90'+2
90'+4
K. Shiogai
90'+4
M. Amoura / D. Pejcinovic ↕
90'+4
L. Majer / C. Eriksen ↕
J. Fujita
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
29.01%
FC
26.31%
X
44.68%
VfL ←
we assigned to the actual result (VfL Wolfsburg) 44.68% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
0.89
1.52
+0.63
VfL
1.36
3.40
+2.04
VfL Wolfsburg dominated by xG (3.40 vs 1.52). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 34 89
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 34 73
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 34 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 34 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 34 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 34 59
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 34 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 34 44
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 34 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 34 40
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 34 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 38
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 34 38
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 34 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 34 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 34 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 34 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 34 26
Lineups
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
22 Nikola Vasilj Nikola Vasilj 1 ⚽ G 8.30
15 Tomoya Ando Tomoya Ando D 6.90
5 Hauke Wahl Hauke Wahl D 5.90
25 Adam Dźwigała Adam Dźwigała 77' D 6.70
23 Louis Oppie Louis Oppie M 6.00
16 Joel Chima Fujita Joel Chima Fujita M 6.60
7 J. Irvine J. Irvine M 6.50
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka M 6.60
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 1 👟 F 7.20
27 Andreas Hountondji Andreas Hountondji 45' F 5.90
19 Martijn Kaars Martijn Kaars F 7.20
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay 1 ⚽ 49' F 7.30
1 Ben Voll Ben Voll G
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F
14 Fin Stevens Fin Stevens D
3 Karol Mets Karol Mets D
21 Lars Ritzka Lars Ritzka D
20 Mathias Rasmussen Mathias Rasmussen 3' M
26 Ricky-Jade Jones Ricky-Jade Jones 17' F 6.90
18 Taichi Hara Taichi Hara 3' F
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 3-1-4-2
1
Kamil Grabara G 6.60
4 K. Koulierakis K. Koulierakis 1 ⚽ D 7.90
3
Denis Vavro D 7.00
6 Jeanuël Belocian Jeanuël Belocian D 7.20
5 Vinicius Souza Vinicius Souza M 6.20
21 J. Mæhle J. Mæhle M 6.30
24 C. Eriksen C. Eriksen 1 👟 M 6.90
32 M. Svanberg M. Svanberg 67' M 6.90
26 Saël Kumbedi Saël Kumbedi M 6.90
17 D. Pejčinović D. Pejčinović 1 ⚽ F 6.60
11 Adam Daghim Adam Daghim 88' F 7.00
Bench
25 Aaron Zehnter Aaron Zehnter D
19 Jesper Lindstrøm Jesper Lindstrøm M
40 Kevin Paredes Kevin Paredes M
7 K. Shiogai K. Shiogai 6' F
10 Lovro Majer Lovro Majer M
9 M. Amoura M. Amoura F
15 Moritz Jenz Moritz Jenz D
12 Pavao Pervan Pavao Pervan G
31 Yannick Gerhardt Yannick Gerhardt 27' M 6.90
Best on the pitch
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj
G · FC
8.30
1 ⚽
· 27 pass
K. Koulierakis
K. Koulierakis
D · VfL
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 71 pass
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
C. Metcalfe
C. Metcalfe
F · FC
7.20
1 👟
1 shots · 14 pass
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars
F · FC
7.20
· 17 pass
Jeanuël Belocian
Jeanuël Belocian
D · VfL
7.20
· 39 pass
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Nikola Vasilj G 94 8.30 1 — — 27 15% — — —
Tomoya Ando D 94 6.90 — — 1 45 39% 5 — —
Hauke Wahl D 94 5.90 — — — 50 45% — — —
Adam Dźwigała D 77 6.70 — — — 33 24% 1 — —
Louis Oppie M 94 6.00 — — — 28 17% 1 — —
Joel Chima Fujita M 94 6.60 — — 1 31 19% — — —
J. Irvine M 91 6.50 — — 1 33 21% 2 — —
Arkadiusz Pyrka M 94 6.60 — — — 28 22% 3 — —
C. Metcalfe F 91 7.20 — 1 1 14 7% 2 — —
Andreas Hountondji F 45 5.90 — — 1 4 3% — — —
Martijn Kaars F 94 7.20 — — — 17 13% — — —
Abdoulie Ceesay F 49 7.30 1 — 2 8 3% 1 1 —
Mathias Rasmussen M 3 — — — — 1 — — — —
Ricky-Jade Jones F 17 6.90 — — — 3 2% — — —
Taichi Hara F 3 — — — — — — — — —
VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Kamil Grabara G 94 6.60 — — — 26 19% — — —
K. Koulierakis D 94 7.90 1 — 1 71 62% 2 — —
Denis Vavro D 94 7.00 — — — 52 45% 1 — —
Jeanuël Belocian D 94 7.20 — — — 39 34% 4 — —
Vinicius Souza M 94 6.20 — — 2 32 25% 1 1 —
J. Mæhle M 94 6.30 — — — 56 46% 2 — —
C. Eriksen M 94 6.90 — 1 3 54 35% 3 — —
M. Svanberg M 67 6.90 — — 2 15 7% — — —
Saël Kumbedi M 94 6.90 — — — 28 21% 3 — —
D. Pejčinović F 94 6.60 1 — 3 31 21% — — —
Adam Daghim F 88 7.00 — — 3 15 12% — 1 —
K. Shiogai F 6 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Yannick Gerhardt M 27 6.90 — — — 13 11% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The final score was FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg.
What did the model predict before FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
The model assigned 29% probability to a FC St. Pauli win, 26% to a draw, and 44% to an VfL Wolfsburg win.