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FC Winterthur - FC Luzern

Super League May 16, 2026 18:00
FC Winterthur
#6 · 23 pts
vs
FC Luzern
#1 · 50 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
23.23%
Win
FC Winterthur
19.2%
Draw
57.57%
Win
FC Luzern
1.3
Expected xG
2.29
Model prediction
FC Luzern
57.57%
Probability
71.4%
1X2 accuracy · 14 predictions (3 months)

The ForzaPitch prediction gives FC Luzern a 57% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 23% for FC Winterthur. Expected goals are 1.3 for FC Winterthur and 2.3 for FC Luzern (total 3.6), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 9.4% probability. In 3 previous meetings, FC Winterthur have won 2 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC Luzern.

Score Matrix
↕ FC Winterthur FC Luzern →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.8% 6.3% 7.2% 5.5% 3.2% 1.5%
1 3.6% 8.2% 9.4% 7.2% 4.1% 1.9%
2 2.3% 5.3% 6.1% 4.7% 2.7% 1.2%
3 1.0% 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5%
4 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% —
Recent form
FC Winterthur FC Winterthur
L Grasshoppers 3–2
W Lausanne 2–1
D FC Zurich 2–2
L Servette FC 5–3
L Grasshoppers 0–2
Clean sheet in casa (120gg) 11%
FC Luzern FC Luzern
W FC Zurich 1–0
D Servette FC 3–3
W Lausanne 1–3
W Grasshoppers 1–2
D FC ST. Gallen 2–2
Clean sheet in trasferta (120gg) 19%
Playing profile
FC Winterthur FC Winterthur
Attack
40
Defence
41
Form
41
FC Luzern FC Luzern
Attack
46
Defence
60
Form
60
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
2
FC Winterthur
1
Draw
0
FC Luzern
W 15 Mar 2026 Super League 2–1
W 29 Nov 2025 Super League 3–1
D 25 Oct 2025 Super League 2–2
League Table
# Team G Pts
1 FC Thun FC Thun 37 74
1 FC Luzern FC Luzern 37 50
2 FC ST. Gallen FC ST. Gallen 37 69
2 Servette FC Servette FC 37 50
3 Lausanne Lausanne 37 42
3 FC Lugano FC Lugano 37 64
4 FC Zurich FC Zurich 37 38
4 FC Sion FC Sion 37 62
5 Grasshoppers Grasshoppers 37 30
5 FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893 37 56
6 BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys 37 54
6 FC Winterthur FC Winterthur 37 23
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern?
The model gives FC Winterthur a 23% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 57% for an FC Luzern win.
How many goals are expected in FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern?
Expected goals: FC Winterthur 1.3, FC Luzern 2.3 (total 3.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in FC Winterthur vs FC Luzern?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.4%.