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Ferro Carril Oeste - San Telmo

Primera Nacional July 05, 2026 20:30
Ferro Carril Oeste
#2 · 34 pts
vs
San Telmo
#11 · 20 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
73.79%
Win
Ferro Carril Oeste
17.6%
Draw
8.61%
Win
San Telmo
1.91
Expected xG
0.31
Most likely result 1–0 (20.8%)
2+ goals
58%
3+ goals
38%
Model prediction
Ferro Carril Oeste
73.79%
Probability
33.3%
1X2 accuracy · 9 predictions (3 months)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ferro Carril Oeste a 73% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 8% for San Telmo. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.3 for San Telmo (total 2.2), with a 58% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 20.8% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Ferro Carril Oeste have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for San Telmo.

Season Stats

Ferro Carril Oeste
9W 2D 4L
San Telmo
4W 7D 4L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
0.7
0.7
Conceded
0.6
Percentages
40%
O 1.5
40%
33%
O 2.5
13%
33%
BTTS
20%
47%
Clean Sht
53%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera Nacional. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
44%
O 1.5
19%
O 2.5
7%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
Ferro Carril Oeste
4W 1D 3L · at home
San Telmo
0W 6D 2L · away
0.9
gls/g
0.5
0.9
Conceded
0.8
50%
Win %
0%
63%
Win or Draw
75%
50%
O 1.5
38%
25%
O 2.5
13%
0%
O 3.5
13%
38%
BTTS
38%
25%
Clean Sht
38%
38%
Failed to Score
63%
last 8
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Ferro Carril Oeste San Telmo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.9% 3.3% 0.5% 0.1% — —
1 20.8% 6.4% 1.0% 0.1% — —
2 19.9% 6.1% 0.9% 0.1% — —
3 12.7% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% — —
4 6.1% 1.9% 0.3% — — —
5 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste
W Deportivo Moron 1–0
W Acassuso 2–1
W Chaco For Ever 1–2
D Racing Cordoba 0–0
W Central Norte 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 28%
San Telmo San Telmo
W Racing Cordoba 2–0
D Central Norte 0–0
D Deportivo Madryn 0–0
L Defensores De Belgrano 1–0
L Ciudad de Bolívar 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 36%

Playing profile

Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste
Attack
39
Defence
85
Form
72
San Telmo San Telmo
Attack
10
Defence
91
Form
45
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Ferro Carril Oeste
0
Draw
0
San Telmo
14 Feb 2026 Primera Nacional 2–0

Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Deportivo Moron Deportivo Moron 18 34
2 Ferro Carril Oeste Ferro Carril Oeste 18 34
3 Los Andes Los Andes 18 29
4 Colon Santa Fe Colon Santa Fe 18 29
5 Deportivo Madryn Deportivo Madryn 18 28
6 Ciudad de Bolívar Ciudad de Bolívar 18 27
7 Almirante Brown Almirante Brown 18 26
8 CA Estudiantes CA Estudiantes 18 26
9 Godoy Cruz Godoy Cruz 18 25
10 San Miguel San Miguel 18 24
11 San Telmo San Telmo 18 20
12 Defensores De Belgrano Defensores De Belgrano 18 20
13 Racing Cordoba Racing Cordoba 18 20
14 All Boys All Boys 18 19
15 Central Norte Central Norte 18 18
16 Acassuso Acassuso 18 18
17 Atletico Mitre Atletico Mitre 18 17
18 Chaco For Ever Chaco For Ever 18 12

What's at stake · Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Ferro Carril Oeste San Telmo
Current #2 #11
→ Ferro Carril Oeste #1 #11
→ Draw #1 #11
→ San Telmo #2 #11

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ferro Carril Oeste vs San Telmo?
The model gives Ferro Carril Oeste a 73% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 8% for an San Telmo win.
How many goals are expected in Ferro Carril Oeste vs San Telmo?
Expected goals: Ferro Carril Oeste 1.9, San Telmo 0.3 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 58%.
What is the most likely score in Ferro Carril Oeste vs San Telmo?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 20.8%.