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← Brasileirão Série C

Ferroviária - Paysandu

Brasileirão Série C September 13, 2026 21:00
Ferroviária
#2 · 1 pts
vs
Paysandu
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
75.9%
Win
Ferroviária
12.98%
Draw
11.13%
Win
Paysandu
3.05
Expected xG
0.89
Most likely outcome
Ferroviária
75.9%
Probability
60.9%
1X2 accuracy · 23 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 3–0 (9.32%)
1X2 Result ✓ 60.9% hit rate (23 picks)
1 76%
X 13%
2 11%
Double Chance
1X 89%
X2 24%
12 87%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 57%
✓ 51.5% hit rate (33 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ferroviária a 75% win probability, against 12% for a draw and 11% for Paysandu. Expected goals are 3.0 for Ferroviária and 0.9 for Paysandu (total 3.9), with a 72% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–0 at 9.32% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Ferroviária have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Paysandu.

Season Stats

Ferroviária
7W 5D 3L
Paysandu
6W 0D 9L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.1
0.7
Conceded
1.6
Percentages
47%
O 1.5
73%
33%
O 2.5
67%
33%
BTTS
60%
47%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Brasileirão Série C. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
21%
O 3.5
22%
BTTS
Ferroviária
6W 2D 2L · at home
Paysandu
4W 0D 5L · away
1.2
gls/g
1.0
0.5
Conceded
1.3
60%
Win %
44%
80%
Win or Draw
44%
40%
O 1.5
56%
20%
O 2.5
44%
20%
O 3.5
22%
10%
BTTS
33%
70%
Clean Sht
33%
30%
Failed to Score
33%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Ferroviária Paysandu →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% —
1 5.9% 5.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% —
2 9.0% 8.1% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% —
3 9.2% 8.2% 3.6% 1.1% 0.2% —
4 7.0% 6.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% —
5 4.3% 3.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% —

Recent form

Ferroviária Ferroviária
D Inter De Limeira 3–3
W Confiança 1–0
L Ypiranga-RS 1–0
W Paysandu 4–0
D Figueirense 2–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 59%
Paysandu Paysandu
L Brusque 1–2
L Maringá 0–1
W Ituano 0–1
L Ferroviária 4–0
W Confiança 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 28%

Playing profile

Ferroviária Ferroviária
Attack
42
Defence
74
Form
59
Paysandu Paysandu
Attack
24
Defence
59
Form
43
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Ferroviária
0
Draw
0
Paysandu
18 Aug 2026 Brasileirão Série C 4–0

Second stage - Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Brusque Brusque 1 3
2 Ferroviária Ferroviária 1 1
3 Inter De Limeira Inter De Limeira 1 1
4 Paysandu Paysandu 1 0

What's at stake · Second stage - Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Ferroviária Paysandu
Current #2 #4
→ Ferroviária #1 #4
→ Draw #2 #4
→ Paysandu #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
The model gives Ferroviária a 75% win probability, 12% for a draw, and 11% for an Paysandu win.
How many goals are expected in Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Expected goals: Ferroviária 3.0, Paysandu 0.9 (total 3.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 72%.
What is the most likely score in Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
3–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.32%.