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Finland - Albania

UEFA Nations League October 03, 2026 15:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Finland
#2 · 0 pts
vs
Albania
#1 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
69.5%
Win
Finland
19.43%
Draw
11.07%
Win
Albania
1.96
Expected xG
0.53
Most likely outcome
Finland
69.5%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (16.2%)
1X2 Result
1 70%
X 19%
2 11%
Double Chance
1X 89%
X2 31%
12 81%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 77%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Finland a 69% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 11% for Albania. Expected goals are 2.0 for Finland and 0.5 for Albania (total 2.5), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 16.2% probability.

Season Stats

Finland
0W 0D 6L
Albania
2W 1D 3L
Averages per game
0.3
Goals
0.7
2.2
Conceded
1.0
1.8
Shots OT
2.5
3.2
Corners
3.0
43%
Poss.
44%
Percentages
83%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
33%
33%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Finland
0W 0D 3L · at home
Albania
2W 0D 1L · away
0.7
gls/g
1.0
2.3
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
67%
0%
Win or Draw
67%
100%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
33%
33%
O 3.5
0%
67%
BTTS
33%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
33%
Failed to Score
33%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Finland Albania →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.2% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% — —
1 16.2% 8.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% —
2 15.9% 8.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 10.4% 5.5% 1.5% 0.3% — —
4 5.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% — —
5 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Finland Finland
L Greece 0–2
L Rep. Of Ireland 1–0
L England 1–3
L Rep. Of Ireland 1–2
L England 2–0
Albania Albania
L Ukraine 1–2
D Czechia 0–0
W Georgia 0–1
L Czechia 2–0
L Georgia 0–1

Playing profile

Finland Finland
Attack
27
Defence
55
Form
31
Albania Albania
Attack
8
Defence
71
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

# Team G Pts
1 Albania Albania 0 0
2 Finland Finland 0 0
3 Belarus Belarus 0 0
4 San Marino San Marino 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1

Top 2 advance to the next round

Finland Albania
Current #2 #1
→ Finland #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Albania #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Finland vs Albania?
The model gives Finland a 69% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 11% for an Albania win.
How many goals are expected in Finland vs Albania?
Expected goals: Finland 2.0, Albania 0.5 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in Finland vs Albania?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.2%.