Conference League
· Quarter-finals
April 16, 2026 21:00
A. Gudmundsson
30'
(pen.)
C. Ndour
(ast. M. Solomon)
53'
17'
(ast. D. Munoz)
I. Sarr
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Crystal Palace a 37% win probability (draw 27%, Fiorentina 35%). The final result was Fiorentina 2–1 Crystal Palace. In 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Crystal Palace.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
3
1.76
Actual xG
1.26
2
Saves
4
67%
Possession
33%
6
Corners
1
11
Tackles
17
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
17'
ast. D. Munoz ·
I. Sarr⚽
30'
J. Lerma
/
A. Wharton
⚽A. Gudmundsson
(pen.)
30'
40'
Y. Pino
M. Pongracic
40'
41'
C. Riad
/
M. Lacroix
P. Comuzzo
45'+5
46'
J. S. Larsen
/
J. Mateta
N. Fagioli
/ C. Ndour
46'
⚽C. Ndour
· ast. M. Solomon
53'
56'
I. Sarr
L. Ranieri
67'
P. Comuzzo
/ E. Kouadio
70'
R. Gosens
/ L. Balbo
70'
73'
W. Hughes
/
Y. Pino
A. Gudmundsson
/ G. Fabbian
75'
M. Solomon
/ J. Fazzini
75'
76'
C. Riad
C. Ndour
87'
R. Piccoli
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
35.08%
Fiorentina ←
27.07%
X
37.85%
Crystal
we assigned to the actual result (Fiorentina)
35.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.03
1.76
+0.73
1.43
1.26
-0.17
Fiorentina dominated by xG (1.76 vs 1.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
43
David De Gea
G
David De Gea
G
6
L. Ranieri
D
L. Ranieri
D
15
Pietro Comuzzo
70'
D
Pietro Comuzzo
70'
D
5
M. Pongračić
D
M. Pongračić
D
21
Robin Gosens
70'
M
Robin Gosens
70'
M
44
Nicolò Fagioli
45'
M
Nicolò Fagioli
45'
M
8
Rolando Mandragora
M
Rolando Mandragora
M
17
Jack Harrison
M
Jack Harrison
M
19
M. Solomon
1 👟
75'
F
M. Solomon
1 👟
75'
F
10
A. Guðmundsson
1 ⚽
75'
F
A. Guðmundsson
1 ⚽
75'
F
91
Roberto Piccoli
F
Roberto Piccoli
F
Bench
27
C. Ndour
1 ⚽
45'
M
C. Ndour
1 ⚽
45'
M
80
Giovanni Fabbian
15'
M
Giovanni Fabbian
15'
M
22
Jacopo Fazzini
15'
M
Jacopo Fazzini
15'
M
62
Luís Balbo
20'
D
Luís Balbo
20'
D
1
Dean Henderson
G
Dean Henderson
G
23
Jaydee Canvot
D
Jaydee Canvot
D
5
Maxence Lacroix
41'
D
Maxence Lacroix
41'
D
26
Chris Richards
D
Chris Richards
D
3
Tyrick Mitchell
M
Tyrick Mitchell
M
18
Daichi Kamada
M
Daichi Kamada
M
20
Adam Wharton
30'
M
Adam Wharton
30'
M
2
Daniel Muñoz
1 👟
M
Daniel Muñoz
1 👟
M
10
Yéremy Pino
73'
F
Yéremy Pino
73'
F
14
Jean Philippe Mateta
45'
F
Jean Philippe Mateta
45'
F
7
Ismaïla Sarr
1 ⚽
F
Ismaïla Sarr
1 ⚽
F
Bench
11
Brennan Johnson
F
Brennan Johnson
F
24
B. Sosa
D
34
Chadi Riad
49'
D
Chadi Riad
49'
D
8
Jefferson Lerma
60'
M
Jefferson Lerma
60'
M
22
Jørgen Strand Larsen
45'
F
Jørgen Strand Larsen
45'
F
19
Will Hughes
17'
M
Will Hughes
17'
M
Best on the pitch
Rolando Mandragora
M · Fiorentina
8.30
· 72 pass
Ismaïla Sarr
F · Crystal
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 18 pass
M. Solomon
F · Fiorentina
7.70
1 👟
3 shots
· 33 pass
C. Ndour
M · Fiorentina
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 23 pass
A. Guðmundsson
F · Fiorentina
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
Jefferson Lerma
M · Crystal
7.30
1 shots
· 17 pass
Fiorentina — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David De Gea | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| L. Ranieri | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 55 | 45% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Pietro Comuzzo | D | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 74 | 69% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 79 | 73% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Robin Gosens | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolò Fagioli | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| Rolando Mandragora | M | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 72 | 67% | — | — | — |
| Jack Harrison | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Solomon | F | 75 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 3 | 33 | 31% | — | — | — |
| A. Guðmundsson | F | 75 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Roberto Piccoli | F | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| C. Ndour | M | 45 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Giovanni Fabbian | M | 15 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Fazzini | M | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Luís Balbo | D | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
Crystal Palace — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Henderson | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Jaydee Canvot | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| Chris Richards | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Tyrick Mitchell | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Daichi Kamada | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| Adam Wharton | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Daniel Muñoz | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Yéremy Pino | F | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jean Philippe Mateta | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Ismaïla Sarr | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 18 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Chadi Riad | D | 49 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Jefferson Lerma | M | 60 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Will Hughes | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace?
The final score was Fiorentina 2–1 Crystal Palace.
What did the model predict before Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Fiorentina win, 27% to a draw, and 37% to an Crystal Palace win.