Conference League
· Quarter-finals
April 16, 2026 21:00
A. Gudmundsson
30'
(pen.)
C. Ndour
(ast. M. Solomon)
53'
17'
(ast. D. Munoz)
I. Sarr
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Crystal Palace a 37% win probability (draw 27%, Fiorentina 35%). The final result was Fiorentina 2–1 Crystal Palace. In 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Crystal Palace.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
8
6
Shots on target
3
1.76
Actual xG
1.26
2
Saves
4
67%
Possession
33%
6
Corners
1
11
Tackles
17
5
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
17'
ast. D. Munoz ·
I. Sarr⚽
30'
J. Lerma
/
A. Wharton
⚽A. Gudmundsson
(pen.)
30'
40'
Y. Pino
M. Pongracic
40'
41'
C. Riad
/
M. Lacroix
P. Comuzzo
45'+5
46'
J. S. Larsen
/
J. Mateta
N. Fagioli
/ C. Ndour
46'
⚽C. Ndour
· ast. M. Solomon
53'
56'
I. Sarr
L. Ranieri
67'
P. Comuzzo
/ E. Kouadio
70'
R. Gosens
/ L. Balbo
70'
73'
W. Hughes
/
Y. Pino
A. Gudmundsson
/ G. Fabbian
75'
M. Solomon
/ J. Fazzini
75'
76'
C. Riad
C. Ndour
87'
R. Piccoli
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
35.08%
Fiorentina ←
27.07%
X
37.85%
Crystal
we assigned to the actual result (Fiorentina)
35.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.03
1.76
+0.73
1.43
1.26
-0.17
Fiorentina dominated by xG (1.76 vs 1.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
43
David de Gea
G
David de Gea
G
6
L. Ranieri
D
L. Ranieri
D
15
P. Comuzzo
70'
D
P. Comuzzo
70'
D
5
M. Pongračić
D
M. Pongračić
D
21
R. Gosens
70'
M
R. Gosens
70'
M
44
N. Fagioli
45'
M
N. Fagioli
45'
M
8
R. Mandragora
M
R. Mandragora
M
17
J. Harrison
M
J. Harrison
M
19
M. Solomon
1 👟
75'
F
M. Solomon
1 👟
75'
F
10
A. Guðmundsson
1 ⚽
75'
F
A. Guðmundsson
1 ⚽
75'
F
91
R. Piccoli
F
R. Piccoli
F
Bench
27
C. Ndour
1 ⚽
45'
M
C. Ndour
1 ⚽
45'
M
80
G. Fabbian
15'
M
G. Fabbian
15'
M
22
J. Fazzini
15'
M
J. Fazzini
15'
M
62
Luís Balbo
20'
D
Luís Balbo
20'
D
1
D. Henderson
G
D. Henderson
G
23
J. Canvot
D
J. Canvot
D
5
M. Lacroix
41'
D
M. Lacroix
41'
D
26
C. Richards
D
C. Richards
D
3
T. Mitchell
M
T. Mitchell
M
18
D. Kamada
M
D. Kamada
M
20
A. Wharton
30'
M
A. Wharton
30'
M
2
D. Muñoz
1 👟
M
D. Muñoz
1 👟
M
10
Yeremy Pino
73'
F
Yeremy Pino
73'
F
14
J. Mateta
45'
F
J. Mateta
45'
F
7
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
I. Sarr
1 ⚽
F
Bench
11
B. Johnson
F
B. Johnson
F
24
B. Sosa
D
B. Sosa
D
34
Chadi Riad
49'
D
Chadi Riad
49'
D
8
J. Lerma
60'
M
J. Lerma
60'
M
22
J. Strand Larsen
45'
F
J. Strand Larsen
45'
F
19
W. Hughes
17'
M
W. Hughes
17'
M
Best on the pitch
R. Mandragora
M · Fiorentina
8.30
· 72 pass
I. Sarr
F · Crystal
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 18 pass
M. Solomon
F · Fiorentina
7.70
1 👟
3 shots
· 33 pass
C. Ndour
M · Fiorentina
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 23 pass
A. Guðmundsson
F · Fiorentina
7.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
J. Lerma
M · Crystal
7.30
1 shots
· 17 pass
Fiorentina — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David de Gea | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| L. Ranieri | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 55 | 45% | 3 | 1 | — |
| P. Comuzzo | D | 70 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 74 | 69% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 79 | 73% | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Gosens | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 43 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Mandragora | M | 90 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 72 | 67% | — | — | — |
| J. Harrison | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Solomon | F | 75 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 3 | 33 | 31% | — | — | — |
| A. Guðmundsson | F | 75 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Piccoli | F | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| C. Ndour | M | 45 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 2 | 1 | — |
| G. Fabbian | M | 15 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Fazzini | M | 15 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Luís Balbo | D | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
Crystal Palace — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Henderson | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 18% | — | — | — |
| J. Canvot | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Lacroix | D | 41 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Richards | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Mitchell | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Kamada | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 25% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Wharton | M | 30 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| D. Muñoz | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 22 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | F | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Mateta | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Sarr | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 18 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Chadi Riad | D | 49 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Lerma | M | 60 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Strand Larsen | F | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| W. Hughes | M | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace?
The final score was Fiorentina 2–1 Crystal Palace.
What did the model predict before Fiorentina vs Crystal Palace?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Fiorentina win, 27% to a draw, and 37% to an Crystal Palace win.