Serie A
· Regular Season - 32
April 13, 2026 20:45
R. Gosens
(ast. J. Harrison)
28'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fiorentina a 45% win probability (draw 29%, Lazio 25%). The final result was Fiorentina 1–0 Lazio. In 1 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Lazio.
Match statistics
6
Total shots
8
2
Shots on target
6
0.50
Actual xG
1.43
6
Saves
1
34%
Possession
66%
5
Corners
6
14
Tackles
7
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽R. Gosens
· ast. J. Harrison
28'
Daniele Rugani
31'
46'
T. Noslin
/
M. Zaccagni
46'
F. Dele-Bashiru
/
T. Basic
63'
Tijjani Noslin
64'
67'
Pedro
/
B. Dia
67'
G. Isaksen
/
M. Cancellieri
D. Rugani
/ M. Pongracic
71'
79'
P. Ratkov
/
K. Taylor
Dodô
80'
R. Gosens
/ L. Balbo
80'
J. Fazzini
/ M. Solomon
84'
Roberto Piccoli
90'+1
90'+4
Pedro
Pre-match prediction
45.03%
Fiorentina ←
29.28%
X
25.7%
Lazio
we assigned to the actual result (Fiorentina)
45.03%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
0.50
-0.71
0.92
1.43
+0.51
Lazio dominated by xG (1.43 vs 0.50).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
43
David De Gea
G
David De Gea
G
21
Robin Gosens
1 ⚽
80'
D
Robin Gosens
1 ⚽
80'
D
6
L. Ranieri
D
L. Ranieri
D
3
Daniele Rugani
71'
D
Daniele Rugani
71'
D
2
Dodô
D
Dodô
D
27
C. Ndour
M
C. Ndour
M
8
Rolando Mandragora
M
Rolando Mandragora
M
80
Giovanni Fabbian
M
Giovanni Fabbian
M
22
Jacopo Fazzini
84'
F
Jacopo Fazzini
84'
F
91
Roberto Piccoli
F
Roberto Piccoli
F
17
Jack Harrison
1 👟
F
Jack Harrison
1 👟
F
Bench
62
Luís Balbo
10'
D
5
M. Pongračić
19'
D
M. Pongračić
19'
D
19
M. Solomon
14'
F
M. Solomon
14'
F
15
Pietro Comuzzo
D
Pietro Comuzzo
D
40
G
17
Nuno Tavares
D
Nuno Tavares
D
25
Oliver Provstgaard
D
Oliver Provstgaard
D
13
Alessio Romagnoli
D
Alessio Romagnoli
D
29
Manuel Lazzari
D
Manuel Lazzari
D
24
Kenneth Taylor
79'
M
Kenneth Taylor
79'
M
4
Patric
M
Patric
M
26
Toma Bašić
45'
M
Toma Bašić
45'
M
10
M. Zaccagni
45'
F
M. Zaccagni
45'
F
19
Boulaye Dia
67'
F
Boulaye Dia
67'
F
22
M. Cancellieri
67'
F
M. Cancellieri
67'
F
Bench
32
Danilo Cataldi
M
Danilo Cataldi
M
23
Elseid Hysaj
D
18
Gustav Isaksen
23'
F
Gustav Isaksen
23'
F
3
Luca Pellegrini
D
Luca Pellegrini
D
9
Pedro
23'
F
Pedro
23'
F
14
Tijjani Noslin
45'
F
Tijjani Noslin
45'
F
Best on the pitch
David De Gea
G · Fiorentina
9.50
· 29 pass
C. Ndour
M · Fiorentina
7.90
1 shots
· 27 pass
Rolando Mandragora
M · Fiorentina
7.70
· 39 pass
Jacopo Fazzini
F · Fiorentina
7.70
· 26 pass
Robin Gosens
D · Fiorentina
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
M. Zaccagni
F · Lazio
7.60
2 shots
· 26 pass
Fiorentina — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David De Gea | G | 90 | 9.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Robin Gosens | D | 80 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Ranieri | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Daniele Rugani | D | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Dodô | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 2 | 1 | — |
| C. Ndour | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Rolando Mandragora | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| Giovanni Fabbian | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Fazzini | F | 84 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Roberto Piccoli | F | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Jack Harrison | F | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 31 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Luís Balbo | D | 10 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| M. Solomon | F | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Lazio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | — | — | — | |
| Nuno Tavares | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Oliver Provstgaard | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 123 | 117% | — | — | — |
| Alessio Romagnoli | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 98 | 91% | 1 | — | — |
| Manuel Lazzari | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 46 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Kenneth Taylor | M | 79 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 51 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Patric | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 111 | 105% | — | — | — |
| Toma Bašić | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| M. Zaccagni | F | 45 | 7.60 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Boulaye Dia | F | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| M. Cancellieri | F | 67 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Gustav Isaksen | F | 23 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Tijjani Noslin | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Lazio?
The final score was Fiorentina 1–0 Lazio.
What did the model predict before Fiorentina vs Lazio?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Fiorentina win, 29% to a draw, and 25% to an Lazio win.