Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 27, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 32 October 27, 2026 00:00 Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

Flamengo

#1 · 73 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Atletico-MG

#7 · 50 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo

Gonzalo Plata (ast. Guillermo Varela) 34'

Giorgian de Arrascaeta (ast. Samuel Lino) 41'

Jorge Carrascal 90'+9 (pen.)

7' (ast. Angelo Preciado) Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte

59' (ast. Victor Hugo Gomes Silva) Renan Lodi

Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 78% win probability (draw 12%, Atletico-MG 9%). The final result was Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG. In 3 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico-MG.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.94

Actual xG

1.01

Saves

72%

Possession

28%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

ast. Angelo Preciado · Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte⚽

⚽Gonzalo Plata · ast. Guillermo Varela

34'

⚽Giorgian de Arrascaeta · ast. Samuel Lino

41'

↕ Alex Sandro / Ayrton Lucas

45'

59'

ast. Victor Hugo Gomes Silva · Renan Lodi⚽

63'

Kevin Castaño / Maycon de Andrade Barberan ↕

63'

Reinier Jesus Carvalho / Igor Gomes ↕

63'

Alan Minda / Angelo Preciado ↕

↕ Gonzalo Plata / Jorge Carrascal

69'

↕ Pedro / Bruno Henrique

69'

Léo Pereira

75'

↕ Giorgian de Arrascaeta / Joaquín Freitas

75'

↕ Jorginho / Lucas Paquetá

75'

Jorge Carrascal

76'

90'+1

Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza / Victor Hugo Gomes Silva ↕

90'+1

Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa / Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte ↕

90'+8

Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza

⚽Jorge Carrascal (pen.)

90'+9

Pre-match prediction

78.0%

Flamengo ←

12.1%

9.89%

Atletico-MG

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo) 78.0% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Flamengo

3.78

2.94

-0.84

Atletico-MG

1.32

1.01

-0.31

Flamengo dominated by xG (2.94 vs 1.01). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	73
2	Palmeiras	33	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	57
4	Fluminense	33	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	54
6	Bahia	33	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	50
8	Santos	33	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	43
11	Botafogo	33	39
12	Coritiba	32	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	38
14	Vitoria	32	38
15	Gremio	33	37
16	Mirassol	32	37
17	Internacional	33	35
18	Corinthians	32	33
19	Remo	33	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	21

Lineups

Flamengo 4-2-3-1

Agustín Rossi G 6.25

Alex Sandro 45' D 6.14

Léo Pereira D 6.45

Léo Ortiz D 6.68

Guillermo Varela 1 👟 D 7.09

Jorginho 75' M 6.58

Erick Pulgar M 6.84

Samuel Lino 1 👟 M 7.70

Giorgian de Arrascaeta 1 ⚽ 75' M 8.20

Gonzalo Plata 1 ⚽ 69' M 8.02

Pedro Guilherme 69' F 6.39

Bench

Andrew G 0.00

Ayrton Lucas 45' D 6.39

Bruno Henrique 21' F 6.47

Dyogo Alves G 0.00

Emerson Royal D 0.00

J. Carrascal 1 ⚽ 21' M 7.39

João Victor D 0.00

Joaquín Freitas 15' F 6.80

Lucas Paquetá 15' M 6.61

Luiz Araújo F 0.00

N. de la Cruz M 0.00

Vitão D 0.00

Atletico-MG 4-4-2

Gabriel Delfim G 6.67

Renan Lodi 1 ⚽ D 7.09

Lyanco D 6.38

Vitão D 6.18

Natanael D 5.95

Bernard 1 ⚽ 89' M 6.92

Alan Franco M 6.28

Maycon 63' M 5.87

Ángelo Preciado 1 👟 63' M 6.60

Igor Gomes 63' F 6.49

Victor Hugo 1 👟 89' F 7.30

Bench

Alan Minda 27' F 6.33

Alexsander 1' M 0.00

Dudu F 0.00

Gustavo Scarpa M 0.00

Kauã Pascini D 0.00

Kevin Castaño 27' M 5.92

Léo Duarte D 0.00

Mamady Cissé M 0.00

Reinier 27' M 5.73

Robert Alves G 0.00

Tomás Pérez M 0.00

Vitor Hugo 1' D 0.00

Best on the pitch

Giorgian de Arrascaeta

M · Flamengo

8.20

1 ⚽

5 shots · 60 pass

Gonzalo Plata

M · Flamengo

8.02

1 ⚽

3 shots · 38 pass

Samuel Lino

M · Flamengo

7.70

1 👟

3 shots · 60 pass

J. Carrascal

M · Flamengo

7.39

1 ⚽

1 shots · 18 pass

Victor Hugo

F · Atletico-MG

7.30

1 👟

1 shots · 39 pass

Guillermo Varela

D · Flamengo

7.09

1 👟

· 90 pass

Flamengo — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Agustín Rossi	G	90	6.25	—	—	0	24	19%	0	—	—
Alex Sandro	D	45	6.14	—	—	1	41	37%	0	—	—
Léo Pereira	D	90	6.45	—	—	1	96	91%	1	1	—
Léo Ortiz	D	90	6.68	—	—	3	104	100%	1	—	—
Guillermo Varela	D	90	7.09	—	1	0	90	88%	1	—	—
Jorginho	M	75	6.58	—	—	0	106	99%	1	—	—
Erick Pulgar	M	90	6.84	—	—	2	78	74%	1	—	—
Samuel Lino	M	90	7.70	—	1	3	60	51%	3	—	—
Giorgian de Arrascaeta	M	75	8.20	1	—	5	60	52%	0	—	—
Gonzalo Plata	M	69	8.02	1	—	3	38	35%	1	—	—
Pedro Guilherme	F	69	6.39	—	—	3	18	14%	0	—	—
Ayrton Lucas	D	45	6.39	—	—	1	26	25%	0	—	—
Bruno Henrique	F	21	6.47	—	—	2	5	5%	0	—	—
J. Carrascal	M	21	7.39	1	—	1	18	15%	1	1	—
Joaquín Freitas	F	15	6.80	—	—	2	14	11%	2	—	—
Lucas Paquetá	M	15	6.61	—	—	2	26	23%	0	—	—

Atletico-MG — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Gabriel Delfim	G	90	6.67	—	—	0	32	19%	0	—	—
Renan Lodi	D	90	7.09	1	—	1	27	23%	1	—	—
Lyanco	D	90	6.38	—	—	0	32	29%	1	—	—
Vitão	D	90	6.18	—	—	0	24	20%	1	—	—
Natanael	D	90	5.95	—	—	0	35	24%	2	—	—
Bernard	M	89	6.92	1	—	2	25	19%	1	—	—
Alan Franco	M	90	6.28	—	—	0	22	20%	4	—	—
Maycon	M	63	5.87	—	—	0	24	18%	2	—	—
Ángelo Preciado	M	63	6.60	—	1	1	10	5%	3	—	—
Igor Gomes	F	63	6.49	—	—	0	12	10%	0	—	—
Victor Hugo	F	89	7.30	—	1	1	39	33%	1	—	—
Alan Minda	F	27	6.33	—	—	0	10	8%	0	—	—
Alexsander	M	1	0.00	—	—	0	1	1%	1	—	—
Kevin Castaño	M	27	5.92	—	—	0	19	17%	2	—	—
Reinier	M	27	5.73	—	—	0	16	14%	0	—	—
Vitor Hugo	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?

The final score was Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG.

What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?

The model assigned 78% probability to a Flamengo win, 12% to a draw, and 9% to an Atletico-MG win.