Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 12
April 20, 2026 00:30
G. de Arrascaeta
(ast. Pedro)
17'
Lucas Paqueta
(ast. S. Niguez)
80'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 54% win probability (draw 23%, Bahia 22%). The final result was Flamengo 2–0 Bahia.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
11
8
Shots on target
5
1.91
Actual xG
0.56
5
Saves
6
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
1
10
Tackles
11
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽G. de Arrascaeta
· ast. Pedro
17'
G. de Arrascaeta
18'
Leo Pereira
44'
46'
Everaldo
/
Willian Jose
46'
Caio Alexandre
/
Gilberto
Samuel Lino
/ Bruno Henrique
66'
74'
Michel Araujo
/
Everton Ribeiro
74'
Ademir
/
Erick Pulga
Evertton Araujo
/ S. Niguez
79'
G. de Arrascaeta
/ N. de la Cruz
79'
⚽Lucas Paqueta
· ast. S. Niguez
80'
G. Plata
/ Luiz Araujo
85'
Pedro
/ Everton
85'
85'
M. Sanabria
/
C. Olivera
Pre-match prediction
54.22%
Flamengo ←
23.69%
X
22.08%
Bahia
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
54.22%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.30
1.91
-0.39
1.11
0.56
-0.55
Flamengo dominated by xG (1.91 vs 0.56).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
2
D
20
Lucas Paquetá
1 ⚽
M
Lucas Paquetá
1 ⚽
M
52
Evertton Araújo
79'
M
Evertton Araújo
79'
M
16
Samuel Lino
66'
M
Samuel Lino
66'
M
14
G. de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
79'
M
G. de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
79'
M
19
G. Plata
85'
M
G. Plata
85'
M
9
Pedro
1 👟
85'
F
Pedro
1 👟
85'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
27
Bruno Henrique
24'
F
Bruno Henrique
24'
F
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
11
Everton
9'
F
Everton
9'
F
7
Luiz Araújo
9'
F
Luiz Araújo
9'
F
18
N. de la Cruz
11'
M
N. de la Cruz
11'
M
22
G
46
Luciano Juba
D
Luciano Juba
D
21
S. Ramos
D
S. Ramos
D
33
David Duarte
D
David Duarte
D
2
Gilberto
45'
D
Gilberto
45'
D
6
Jean Lucas
M
Jean Lucas
M
5
N. Acevedo
M
N. Acevedo
M
10
Éverton Ribeiro
74'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
74'
M
16
Erick Pulga
74'
F
Erick Pulga
74'
F
12
Willian José
45'
F
Willian José
45'
F
99
C. Olivera
85'
F
C. Olivera
85'
F
Bench
8
Caio Alexandre
45'
M
Caio Alexandre
45'
M
14
Erick
M
Erick
M
27
Everaldo
45'
F
Everaldo
45'
F
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
15
M. Araújo
16'
M
M. Araújo
16'
M
23
Mateo Sanabria
9'
F
Mateo Sanabria
9'
F
Best on the pitch
G. de Arrascaeta
M · Flamengo
8.50
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 48 pass
Lucas Paquetá
M · Flamengo
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 80 pass
G. Plata
M · Flamengo
7.90
2 shots
· 32 pass
Léo Ortiz
D · Flamengo
7.70
· 52 pass
Alex Sandro
D · Flamengo
7.30
· 59 pass
Léo Pereira
D · Flamengo
7.30
· 75 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 16% | — | — | — | |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | — | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 75 | 73% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 52 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 42 | 36% | — | — | — | |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 90 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 80 | 67% | 3 | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 64 | 57% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 43 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 79 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 4 | 48 | 41% | 1 | 1 | — |
| G. Plata | M | 85 | 7.90 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 85 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Everton | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 9 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | — | — | — | |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Ramos | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Acevedo | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 69 | 60% | 2 | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 74 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| C. Olivera | F | 85 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 42 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 55 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Araújo | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Bahia?
The final score was Flamengo 2–0 Bahia.
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Bahia?
The model assigned 54% probability to a Flamengo win, 23% to a draw, and 22% to an Bahia win.