Copa Libertadores
· Round of 16
August 20, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
G. de Arrascaeta
(ast. Pedro)
35'
Samuel Lino
(ast. Pedro)
62'
51'
(ast. Gerson)
L. Romero
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 68% win probability (draw 16%, Cruzeiro 15%). The final result was Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro. In 3 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Cruzeiro.
Match statistics
20
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
2
2.23
Actual xG
0.38
2
Saves
7
53%
Possession
47%
3
Corners
5
16
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽G. de Arrascaeta
· ast. Pedro
35'
48'
51'
ast. Gerson ·
L. Romero⚽
⚽Samuel Lino
· ast. Pedro
62'
G. de Arrascaeta
/ Lucas Paqueta
63'
G. Plata
/ J. Carrascal
64'
66'
J. Costa
/
Wesley
70'
William Furtado
Pedro
/ Bruno Henrique
76'
Ayrton Lucas
/ G. Varela
76'
79'
Fagner
/
William Furtado
80'
L. Rodriguez
/
G. Rojas
Jorginho
/ Evertton Araujo
80'
85'
Bruno Rodrigues
/
Gerson
Bruno Henrique
90'+3
90'+4
J. Costa
Pre-match prediction
68.59%
Flamengo ←
16.4%
X
15.01%
Cruzeiro
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
68.59%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.62
2.23
-1.39
1.37
0.38
-0.99
Flamengo dominated by xG (2.23 vs 0.38).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Agustín Rossi
G
Agustín Rossi
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
76'
D
Ayrton Lucas
76'
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
21
Jorginho
80'
M
Jorginho
80'
M
5
Erick Pulgar
M
Erick Pulgar
M
16
Samuel Lino
1 ⚽
M
Samuel Lino
1 ⚽
M
10
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
63'
M
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
63'
M
19
Gonzalo Plata
64'
M
Gonzalo Plata
64'
M
9
Pedro Guilherme
2 👟
76'
F
Pedro Guilherme
2 👟
76'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
27
Bruno Henrique
15'
F
Bruno Henrique
15'
F
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
52
Evertton Araujo
11'
M
Evertton Araujo
11'
M
2
Guillermo Varela
15'
D
Guillermo Varela
15'
D
15
J. Carrascal
27'
M
J. Carrascal
27'
M
77
Johnny Goes
D
Johnny Goes
D
99
Lorran
M
Lorran
M
20
Lucas Paquetá
28'
M
Lucas Paquetá
28'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
F
Luiz Araújo
F
8
Saúl
M
Saúl
M
64
Wallace
F
Wallace
F
81
Otávio Costa
G
Otávio Costa
G
27
Gabriel Rojas
80'
D
Gabriel Rojas
80'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
12
William Furtado
79'
D
William Furtado
79'
D
8
Gerson
1 👟
85'
M
Gerson
1 👟
85'
M
29
Lucas Romero
1 ⚽
M
Lucas Romero
1 ⚽
M
20
Wesley
66'
M
Wesley
66'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
M
Matheus Pereira
M
99
Keny Arroyo
M
Keny Arroyo
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Kaio Jorge
F
Bench
9
Bruno Rodrigues
6'
F
Bruno Rodrigues
6'
F
1
Cássio
G
Cássio
G
23
Fagner
12'
D
Fagner
12'
D
38
Felipe Morais
M
Felipe Morais
M
67
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
25'
F
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
25'
F
43
João Marcelo
D
João Marcelo
D
70
Kenji
F
Kenji
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
25
Lucas Villalba
D
Lucas Villalba
D
97
Luciano Rodríguez
11'
F
Luciano Rodríguez
11'
F
94
Wanderson
F
Wanderson
F
5
Zé Lucas
M
Zé Lucas
M
Best on the pitch
Samuel Lino
M · Flamengo
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 43 pass
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 22 pass
Pedro Guilherme
F · Flamengo
7.70
2 👟
3 shots
· 27 pass
Lucas Romero
M · Cruzeiro
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 48 pass
Otávio Costa
G · Cruzeiro
7.20
· 27 pass
Lucas Paquetá
M · Flamengo
7.00
3 shots
· 27 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Rossi | G | 91 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 91 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| Erick Pulgar | M | 91 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 91 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 43 | 37% | 4 | — | — |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta | M | 63 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Pedro Guilherme | F | 76 | 7.70 | — | 2 | 3 | 27 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 28 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 27 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Costa | G | 91 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Rojas | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| William Furtado | D | 79 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Gerson | M | 85 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 52 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Romero | M | 91 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| Wesley | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| Keny Arroyo | M | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Fagner | D | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| João Gabriel e Costa Cesco | F | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Rodríguez | F | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
The final score was Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro.
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Flamengo win, 16% to a draw, and 15% to an Cruzeiro win.