Copa Libertadores
· Round of 16
August 20, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
G. de Arrascaeta
(ast. Pedro)
35'
Samuel Lino
(ast. Pedro)
62'
51'
(ast. Gerson)
L. Romero
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 68% win probability (draw 16%, Cruzeiro 15%). The final result was Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro. In 3 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Cruzeiro.
Match statistics
20
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
2
2.23
Actual xG
0.38
2
Saves
7
53%
Possession
47%
3
Corners
5
16
Tackles
16
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽G. de Arrascaeta
· ast. Pedro
35'
48'
51'
ast. Gerson ·
L. Romero⚽
⚽Samuel Lino
· ast. Pedro
62'
G. de Arrascaeta
/ Lucas Paqueta
63'
G. Plata
/ J. Carrascal
64'
66'
J. Costa
/
Wesley
70'
William Furtado
Pedro
/ Bruno Henrique
76'
Ayrton Lucas
/ G. Varela
76'
79'
Fagner
/
William Furtado
80'
L. Rodriguez
/
G. Rojas
Jorginho
/ Evertton Araujo
80'
85'
Bruno Rodrigues
/
Gerson
Bruno Henrique
90'+3
90'+4
J. Costa
Pre-match prediction
68.59%
Flamengo ←
16.4%
X
15.01%
Cruzeiro
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
68.59%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.62
2.23
-1.39
1.37
0.38
-0.99
Flamengo dominated by xG (2.23 vs 0.38).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
A. Rossi
G
A. Rossi
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
76'
D
Ayrton Lucas
76'
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
21
Jorginho
80'
M
Jorginho
80'
M
5
E. Pulgar
M
E. Pulgar
M
16
Samuel Lino
1 ⚽
M
Samuel Lino
1 ⚽
M
10
G. de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
63'
M
G. de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
63'
M
19
G. Plata
64'
M
G. Plata
64'
M
9
Pedro
2 👟
76'
F
Pedro
2 👟
76'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
27
Bruno Henrique
15'
F
Bruno Henrique
15'
F
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
52
Evertton Araújo
11'
M
Evertton Araújo
11'
M
2
G. Varela
15'
D
G. Varela
15'
D
15
J. Carrascal
27'
M
J. Carrascal
27'
M
77
Johnny Góes
D
Johnny Góes
D
99
Lorran
M
Lorran
M
20
Lucas Paquetá
28'
M
Lucas Paquetá
28'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
F
Luiz Araújo
F
8
Saúl
M
Saúl
M
64
Wallace
F
Wallace
F
81
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
G
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
G
27
G. Rojas
80'
D
G. Rojas
80'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
Jonathan Jesus
D
15
Fabrício Bruno
D
Fabrício Bruno
D
12
William
79'
D
William
79'
D
8
Gerson
1 👟
85'
M
Gerson
1 👟
85'
M
29
L. Romero
1 ⚽
M
L. Romero
1 ⚽
M
20
Wesley Gassova
66'
M
Wesley Gassova
66'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
M
Matheus Pereira
M
99
K. Arroyo
M
K. Arroyo
M
19
Kaio Jorge
F
Kaio Jorge
F
Bench
9
Bruno Rodrigues
6'
F
Bruno Rodrigues
6'
F
1
Cássio
G
Cássio
G
23
Fágner
12'
D
Fágner
12'
D
38
Felipe Morais
M
Felipe Morais
M
67
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
25'
F
João Gabriel e Costa Cesco
25'
F
43
João Marcelo
D
João Marcelo
D
70
Kenji
F
Kenji
F
97
L. Rodríguez
11'
F
L. Rodríguez
11'
F
16
Lucas Silva
M
Lucas Silva
M
25
L. Villalba
D
L. Villalba
D
94
Wanderson
F
Wanderson
F
5
Zé Lucas
M
Zé Lucas
M
Best on the pitch
Samuel Lino
M · Flamengo
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 43 pass
G. de Arrascaeta
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
4 shots
· 22 pass
Pedro
F · Flamengo
7.70
2 👟
3 shots
· 27 pass
L. Romero
M · Cruzeiro
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 48 pass
Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa
G · Cruzeiro
7.20
· 27 pass
Lucas Paquetá
M · Flamengo
7.00
3 shots
· 27 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rossi | G | 91 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 76 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 28% | — | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 59 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 91 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 40 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Pulgar | M | 91 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 91 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 43 | 37% | 4 | — | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 63 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 4 | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Plata | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 76 | 7.70 | — | 2 | 3 | 27 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| G. Varela | D | 15 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 28 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 27 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
Cruzeiro — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa | G | 91 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 16% | — | — | — |
| G. Rojas | D | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 51 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| William | D | 79 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 19% | — | 1 | — |
| Gerson | M | 85 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 52 | 43% | — | — | — |
| L. Romero | M | 91 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| Wesley Gassova | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 91 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 53 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| K. Arroyo | M | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Kaio Jorge | F | 91 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Fágner | D | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| João Gabriel e Costa Cesco | F | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| L. Rodríguez | F | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
The final score was Flamengo 2–1 Cruzeiro.
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
The model assigned 68% probability to a Flamengo win, 16% to a draw, and 15% to an Cruzeiro win.