Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 21, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
Pedro
65'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 65% win probability (draw 21%, Estudiantes L.P. 13%). The final result was Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes L.P.. In 1 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Estudiantes L.P..
Match statistics
12
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
1
1.19
Actual xG
0.85
1
Saves
3
67%
Possession
33%
3
Corners
5
14
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
1'
L. Piovi
37'
E. Meza
Evertton Araujo
48'
Luiz Araujo
52'
58'
T. Palacios
Luiz Araujo
/ Samuel Lino
60'
Evertton Araujo
/ Lucas Paqueta
60'
⚽Pedro
65'
72'
E. Cetre
/
B. Aguirre
72'
F. Farias
/
A. Castro
75'
T. Palacios
Bruno Henrique
/ N. de la Cruz
76'
85'
Perez Fabricio
/
T. Palacios
85'
Gabriel Neves
/
L. Piovi
Pedro
/ G. Varela
88'
J. Carrascal
/ Wallace Yan
88'
89'
A. Gaich
/
M. Amondarain
90'
L. Gonzalez Pirez
Pre-match prediction
65.06%
Flamengo ←
21.19%
X
13.74%
Estudiantes
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
65.06%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.83
1.19
-0.64
0.57
0.85
+0.28
Flamengo dominated by xG (1.19 vs 0.85).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Agustín Rossi
G
Agustín Rossi
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
52
Evertton Araújo
60'
M
Evertton Araújo
60'
M
21
Jorginho
M
Jorginho
M
27
Bruno Henrique
76'
M
Bruno Henrique
76'
M
15
J. Carrascal
88'
M
J. Carrascal
88'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
60'
M
Luiz Araújo
60'
M
9
Pedro
1 ⚽
88'
F
Pedro
1 ⚽
88'
F
Bench
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
49
Dyogo Alves
G
Dyogo Alves
G
2
Guillermo Varela
7'
D
Guillermo Varela
7'
D
20
Lucas Paquetá
35'
M
Lucas Paquetá
35'
M
18
N. de la Cruz
19'
M
N. de la Cruz
19'
M
16
Samuel Lino
35'
M
Samuel Lino
35'
M
8
Saúl Ñíguez
M
Saúl Ñíguez
M
44
Vitão
D
Vitão
D
64
Wallace Yan
7'
F
Wallace Yan
7'
F
16
Fernando Muslera
G
Fernando Muslera
G
24
T. Palacios
D
T. Palacios
D
14
L. González
D
L. González
D
4
Santiago Núñez
D
Santiago Núñez
D
20
Eric Meza
D
Eric Meza
D
22
Alexis Castro
72'
M
Alexis Castro
72'
M
21
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
85'
M
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
85'
M
28
Brian Aguirre
72'
M
Brian Aguirre
72'
M
32
M. Amondarain
89'
M
M. Amondarain
89'
M
10
T. Palacios
85'
M
T. Palacios
85'
M
9
Guido Carrillo
F
Guido Carrillo
F
Bench
19
Adolfo Gaich
6'
F
Adolfo Gaich
6'
F
18
Edwuin Cetré
23'
F
Edwuin Cetré
23'
F
40
Eros Mancuso
D
Eros Mancuso
D
1
Fabricio Iacovich
G
Fabricio Iacovich
G
29
Fabricio Pérez
10'
F
Fabricio Pérez
10'
F
11
Facundo Farías
23'
M
Facundo Farías
23'
M
8
Gabriel Neves
10'
M
Gabriel Neves
10'
M
13
Gastón Benedetti
D
Gastón Benedetti
D
17
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
F
Joaquín Tobio Burgos
F
7
J. Sosa
M
J. Sosa
M
27
Lucas Alario
F
Lucas Alario
F
35
Valente Pierani
D
Valente Pierani
D
Best on the pitch
Jorginho
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 shots
· 63 pass
Pedro
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 9 pass
J. Carrascal
M · Flamengo
7.50
1 shots
· 30 pass
Agustín Rossi
G · Flamengo
7.30
· 15 pass
Léo Pereira
D · Flamengo
7.30
2 shots
· 74 pass
Léo Ortiz
D · Flamengo
7.20
· 65 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Rossi | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 74 | 66% | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | — | 1 | — |
| Jorginho | M | 95 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 55% | 6 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 88 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro | F | 88 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 35 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 35 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | 7 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Estudiantes L.P. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Muslera | G | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 35 | 23% | — | — | — |
| T. Palacios | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. González | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| Santiago Núñez | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | 5 | — | — |
| Eric Meza | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 7% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Alexis Castro | M | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ezequiel Piovi | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Brian Aguirre | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| T. Palacios | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| Guido Carrillo | F | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Adolfo Gaich | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — | — |
| Edwuin Cetré | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Fabricio Pérez | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Farías | M | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Neves | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The final score was Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes L.P..
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Flamengo win, 21% to a draw, and 13% to an Estudiantes L.P. win.