Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 21, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
Pedro
65'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 65% win probability (draw 21%, Estudiantes L.P. 13%). The final result was Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes L.P.. In 1 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Estudiantes L.P..
Match statistics
12
Total shots
4
4
Shots on target
1
1.19
Actual xG
0.85
1
Saves
3
67%
Possession
33%
3
Corners
5
14
Tackles
16
2
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
1'
L. Piovi
37'
E. Meza
Evertton Araujo
48'
Luiz Araujo
52'
58'
T. Palacios
Luiz Araujo
/ Samuel Lino
60'
Evertton Araujo
/ Lucas Paqueta
60'
⚽Pedro
65'
72'
E. Cetre
/
B. Aguirre
72'
F. Farias
/
A. Castro
75'
T. Palacios
Bruno Henrique
/ N. de la Cruz
76'
85'
Perez Fabricio
/
T. Palacios
85'
Gabriel Neves
/
L. Piovi
Pedro
/ G. Varela
88'
J. Carrascal
/ Wallace Yan
88'
89'
A. Gaich
/
M. Amondarain
90'
L. Gonzalez Pirez
Pre-match prediction
65.06%
Flamengo ←
21.19%
X
13.74%
Estudiantes
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
65.06%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.83
1.19
-0.64
0.57
0.85
+0.28
Flamengo dominated by xG (1.19 vs 0.85).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
A. Rossi
G
A. Rossi
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
52
Evertton Araújo
60'
M
Evertton Araújo
60'
M
21
Jorginho
M
Jorginho
M
27
Bruno Henrique
76'
M
Bruno Henrique
76'
M
15
J. Carrascal
88'
M
J. Carrascal
88'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
60'
M
Luiz Araújo
60'
M
9
Pedro
1 ⚽
88'
F
Pedro
1 ⚽
88'
F
Bench
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
49
Dyogo
G
Dyogo
G
2
G. Varela
7'
D
G. Varela
7'
D
20
Lucas Paquetá
35'
M
Lucas Paquetá
35'
M
18
N. de la Cruz
19'
M
N. de la Cruz
19'
M
16
Samuel Lino
35'
M
Samuel Lino
35'
M
8
Saúl
M
Saúl
M
44
Vitão
D
Vitão
D
64
Wallace
7'
F
Wallace
7'
F
16
F. Muslera
G
F. Muslera
G
24
T. Palacios
D
T. Palacios
D
14
L. González
D
L. González
D
4
S. Núñez
D
S. Núñez
D
20
E. Meza
D
E. Meza
D
22
A. Castro
72'
M
A. Castro
72'
M
21
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
85'
M
Lucas Ezequiel Piovi
85'
M
28
B. Aguirre
72'
M
B. Aguirre
72'
M
32
M. Amondarain
89'
M
M. Amondarain
89'
M
10
T. Palacios
85'
M
T. Palacios
85'
M
9
G. Carrillo
F
G. Carrillo
F
Bench
19
A. Gaich
6'
F
A. Gaich
6'
F
18
E. Cetré
23'
F
E. Cetré
23'
F
40
E. Mancuso
D
E. Mancuso
D
11
Facundo Farías
23'
M
Facundo Farías
23'
M
1
F. Iacovich
G
F. Iacovich
G
29
F. Pérez Escudero
10'
F
F. Pérez Escudero
10'
F
13
G. Benedetti
D
G. Benedetti
D
8
G. Neves
10'
M
G. Neves
10'
M
17
J. Burgos
F
J. Burgos
F
7
J. Sosa
M
J. Sosa
M
27
L. Alario
F
L. Alario
F
35
V. Pierani
D
V. Pierani
D
Best on the pitch
Jorginho
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 shots
· 63 pass
Pedro
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 9 pass
J. Carrascal
M · Flamengo
7.50
1 shots
· 30 pass
A. Rossi
G · Flamengo
7.30
· 15 pass
Léo Pereira
D · Flamengo
7.30
2 shots
· 74 pass
Léo Ortiz
D · Flamengo
7.20
· 65 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rossi | G | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 45 | 38% | 2 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 74 | 66% | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 31% | — | 1 | — |
| Jorginho | M | 95 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 55% | 6 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | M | 76 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 88 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | — | 1 | — |
| Pedro | F | 88 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| G. Varela | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 35 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 35 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Wallace | F | 7 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Estudiantes L.P. — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Muslera | G | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 35 | 23% | — | — | — |
| T. Palacios | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. González | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 30% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Núñez | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | 5 | — | — |
| E. Meza | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 7% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. Castro | M | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ezequiel Piovi | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 3 | 1 | — |
| B. Aguirre | M | 72 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Amondarain | M | 89 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| T. Palacios | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Carrillo | F | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Gaich | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — | — |
| E. Cetré | F | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Facundo Farías | M | 23 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| F. Pérez Escudero | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| G. Neves | M | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The final score was Flamengo 1–0 Estudiantes L.P..
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Estudiantes L.P.?
The model assigned 65% probability to a Flamengo win, 21% to a draw, and 13% to an Estudiantes L.P. win.