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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 30 October 11, 2026 22:30 Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Flamengo
#1 · 67 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Fluminense
#5 · 51 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
Jorge Carrascal (ast. Lucas Paquetá) 65'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 67% win probability (draw 15%, Fluminense 17%). The final result was Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense. In 1 previous meetings, Flamengo have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Fluminense.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
12
6
Shots on target
4
1.72
Actual xG
1.04
4
Saves
5
43%
Possession
57%
4
Corners
2
18
Tackles
20
3
🟨 Yellow cards
5
Match Events
Erick Pulgar
31'
39'
Luciano Acosta
Saúl Ñíguez
49'
57'
Agustín Canobbio
59'
Yeferson Soteldo
60'
Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima / Luciano Acosta ↕
60'
Kevin Serna / Yeferson Soteldo ↕
↕ Pedro / Bruno Henrique
64'
↕ Saúl Ñíguez / Joaquín Freitas
64'
⚽Jorge Carrascal · ast. Lucas Paquetá
65'
69'
Jefferson David Savarino Quintero / Agustín Canobbio ↕
69'
Hulk / Rodrigo Castillo ↕
78'
Wesley Natã de Freitas Prado / Matheus Martinelli Lima ↕
↕ Lucas Paquetá / Gonzalo Plata
79'
↕ Samuel Lino / Nicolas De la Cruz
79'
83'
Ignácio da Silva Oliveira
87'
Guilherme Arana
Joaquín Freitas
90'+5
↕ Jorge Carrascal / Danilo Luiz da Silva
90'
Pre-match prediction
67.12%
Flamengo ←
15.72%
X
17.16%
Fluminense
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo) 67.12% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Flamengo
3.48
1.72
-1.76
Fluminense
1.86
1.04
-0.82
Flamengo dominated by xG (1.72 vs 1.04). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 31 67
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras 31 66
3 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 31 53
4 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 31 51
5 Fluminense Fluminense 31 51
6 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 31 50
7 Bahia Bahia 31 49
8 Santos Santos 31 45
9 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 31 42
10 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 31 41
11 Botafogo Botafogo 31 39
12 Coritiba Coritiba 31 39
13 Vitoria Vitoria 31 37
14 Mirassol Mirassol 31 36
15 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 30 35
16 Corinthians Corinthians 31 33
17 Internacional Internacional 31 32
18 Gremio Gremio 31 31
19 Remo Remo 31 26
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 30 18
Lineups
Flamengo Flamengo 4-2-3-1
1 A. Rossi A. Rossi G 6.98
26 Alex Sandro Alex Sandro D 7.44
4 Léo Pereira Léo Pereira D 7.46
3 Léo Ortiz Léo Ortiz D 7.63
2 G. Varela G. Varela D 7.16
8 Saúl Saúl 64' M 6.67
5 E. Pulgar E. Pulgar M 7.20
16 Samuel Lino Samuel Lino 79' M 6.85
11 Lucas Paquetá Lucas Paquetá 1 👟 79' M 7.70
15 J. Carrascal J. Carrascal 1 ⚽ 89' M 8.20
9 Pedro Pedro 64' F 6.20
Bench
42 Andrew Andrew G 0.00
14 A. Valencia A. Valencia F 0.00
27 Bruno Henrique Bruno Henrique 26' F 6.53
13 Danilo Danilo 1' D 0.00
49 Dyogo Dyogo G 0.00
22 Emerson Royal Emerson Royal D 0.00
19 G. Plata G. Plata 11' F 6.56
30 J. Freitas J. Freitas 26' F 6.39
77 Johnny Góes Johnny Góes D 0.00
7 Luiz Araújo Luiz Araújo F 0.00
18 N. de la Cruz N. de la Cruz 11' M 6.93
44 Vitão Vitão D 0.00
Fluminense Fluminense 4-2-3-1
1 Fábio Fábio G 7.93
13 Guilherme Arana Guilherme Arana D 6.07
29 J. Millán J. Millán D 7.07
4 Ignacio Ignacio D 6.03
2 Samuel Xavier Samuel Xavier D 6.60
8 Martinelli Martinelli 78' M 7.20
16 Nonato Nonato M 6.53
30 Y. Soteldo Y. Soteldo 60' M 6.67
32 L. Acosta L. Acosta 60' M 6.96
17 A. Canobbio A. Canobbio 69' M 6.22
19 R. Castillo R. Castillo 69' F 6.75
Bench
23 Guga Guga D 0.00
35 Hércules Hércules M 0.00
7 Hulk Hulk 21' F 6.39
21 Igor Rabello Igor Rabello D 0.00
22 J. Freytes J. Freytes D 0.00
11 J. Savarino J. Savarino 21' F 6.36
90 K. Serna K. Serna 30' F 6.30
94 Otávio Otávio M 0.00
10 PH Ganso PH Ganso 30' M 6.96
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D 0.00
98 Vitor Eudes Vitor Eudes G 0.00
34 Wesley Nata Wesley Nata 12' F 6.32
Best on the pitch
J. Carrascal
J. Carrascal
M · Flamengo
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 28 pass
Fábio
Fábio
G · Fluminense
7.93
· 31 pass
Lucas Paquetá
Lucas Paquetá
M · Flamengo
7.70
1 👟
3 shots · 33 pass
Léo Ortiz
Léo Ortiz
D · Flamengo
7.63
1 shots · 55 pass
Léo Pereira
Léo Pereira
D · Flamengo
7.46
1 shots · 53 pass
Alex Sandro
Alex Sandro
D · Flamengo
7.44
· 31 pass
Flamengo Flamengo — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Rossi G 90 6.98 — — 0 23 17% 0 — —
Alex Sandro D 90 7.44 — — 0 31 29% 4 — —
Léo Pereira D 90 7.46 — — 1 53 49% 1 — —
Léo Ortiz D 90 7.63 — — 1 55 53% 1 — —
G. Varela D 90 7.16 — — 0 34 30% 0 — —
Saúl M 64 6.67 — — 1 28 25% 0 1 —
E. Pulgar M 90 7.20 — — 2 62 57% 4 1 —
Samuel Lino M 79 6.85 — — 3 37 31% 3 — —
Lucas Paquetá M 79 7.70 — 1 3 33 28% 1 — —
J. Carrascal M 89 8.20 1 — 2 28 24% 0 — —
Pedro F 64 6.20 — — 2 13 10% 1 — —
Bruno Henrique F 26 6.53 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
Danilo D 1 0.00 — — 0 2 1% 0 — —
G. Plata F 11 6.56 — — 0 8 8% 0 — —
J. Freitas F 26 6.39 — — 1 8 7% 1 1 —
N. de la Cruz M 11 6.93 — — 1 6 5% 2 — —
Fluminense Fluminense — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Fábio G 90 7.93 — — 0 31 28% 0 — —
Guilherme Arana D 90 6.07 — — 1 44 35% 2 1 —
J. Millán D 90 7.07 — — 0 61 55% 6 — —
Ignacio D 90 6.03 — — 1 66 59% 0 1 —
Samuel Xavier D 90 6.60 — — 0 66 61% 2 — —
Martinelli M 78 7.20 — — 3 60 57% 1 — —
Nonato M 90 6.53 — — 0 61 54% 5 — —
Y. Soteldo M 60 6.67 — — 0 23 19% 1 1 —
L. Acosta M 60 6.96 — — 0 31 30% 0 1 —
A. Canobbio M 69 6.22 — — 0 28 23% 1 1 —
R. Castillo F 69 6.75 — — 4 22 18% 1 — —
Hulk F 21 6.39 — — 2 5 3% 0 — —
J. Savarino F 21 6.36 — — 0 12 11% 1 — —
K. Serna F 30 6.30 — — 1 11 10% 0 — —
PH Ganso M 30 6.96 — — 0 35 33% 0 — —
Wesley Nata F 12 6.32 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The final score was Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 67% probability to a Flamengo win, 15% to a draw, and 17% to an Fluminense win.