Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 17, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
Lucas Paqueta
(ast. Ayrton Lucas)
15'
Bruno Henrique
(ast. G. de Arrascaeta)
45'
G. de Arrascaeta
(ast. Bruno Henrique)
49'
Pedro
(ast. Luiz Araujo)
90'+6
40'
(ast. A. Serna)
Yony Gonzalez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 59% win probability (draw 21%, Independiente Medellin 18%). The final result was Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
8
10
Shots on target
1
2.92
Actual xG
0.30
0
Saves
6
59%
Possession
41%
4
Corners
2
15
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Lucas Paqueta
· ast. Ayrton Lucas
15'
40'
ast. A. Serna ·
Yony Gonzalez⚽
⚽Bruno Henrique
· ast. G. de Arrascaeta
45'
48'
B. Perlaza
⚽G. de Arrascaeta
· ast. Bruno Henrique
49'
G. de Arrascaeta
/ G. Plata
63'
Samuel Lino
/ Luiz Araujo
63'
64'
68'
M. Palacios
/
E. Mena Perea
68'
D. Catano
/
F. Chaverra
68'
H. Loboa
/
B. Perlaza
68'
J. Montano
/
Yony Gonzalez
70'
L. Chaverra
Luiz Araujo
74'
Lucas Paqueta
/ Pedro
77'
Bruno Henrique
/ N. de la Cruz
77'
J. Carrascal
/ Wallace Yan
83'
86'
D. Catano
86'
D. Moreno
/
L. Chaverra
⚽Pedro
· ast. Luiz Araujo
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
59.98%
Flamengo ←
21.86%
X
18.15%
Independiente
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
59.98%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
2.92
+0.67
0.74
0.30
-0.44
Flamengo dominated by xG (2.92 vs 0.30).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
1 👟
D
Ayrton Lucas
1 👟
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
13
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
20
Lucas Paqueta
1 ⚽
77'
M
52
Evertton Araujo
M
Evertton Araujo
M
16
Samuel Lino
63'
M
Samuel Lino
63'
M
10
G. de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
1 👟
63'
M
G. de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
1 👟
63'
M
15
Jorge Carrascal
83'
M
Jorge Carrascal
83'
M
27
Bruno Henrique
1 ⚽
1 👟
77'
F
Bruno Henrique
1 ⚽
1 👟
77'
F
Bench
26
Alex Sandro
D
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
11
Everton
F
Everton
F
19
Gonzalo Plata
27'
F
Gonzalo Plata
27'
F
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
7
Luiz Araújo
1 👟
27'
F
Luiz Araújo
1 👟
27'
F
18
N. de la Cruz
13'
M
N. de la Cruz
13'
M
9
Pedro
1 ⚽
13'
F
Pedro
1 ⚽
13'
F
25
E. Chaux
G
18
F. Fabra
D
F. Fabra
D
33
D. Londono
D
24
J. Ortiz
D
2
L. Chaverra
86'
D
11
Yony Gonzalez
1 ⚽
68'
M
8
A. Serna
1 👟
M
14
B. Perlaza
68'
M
26
E. Mena Perea
68'
M
19
F. Fydriszewski
F
F. Fydriszewski
F
13
F. Chaverra
68'
F
Bench
10
D. Catano
22'
M
31
D. Moreno
10'
M
16
H. Loboa
22'
M
30
H. Palacios
22'
D
H. Palacios
22'
D
20
J. Montano
22'
F
5
L. Escorcia
D
Best on the pitch
Lucas Paqueta
M · Flamengo
9.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 55 pass
G. de Arrascaeta
M · Flamengo
8.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 38 pass
Samuel Lino
M · Flamengo
8.30
1 shots
· 31 pass
Pedro
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
Bruno Henrique
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 21 pass
Ayrton Lucas
D · Flamengo
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 47 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 47 | 43% | 3 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 73 | 70% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 62 | 55% | 1 | — | — | |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Paqueta | M | 77 | 9.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 54% | 3 | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 58% | 2 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 63 | 8.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 63 | 8.60 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 77 | 7.70 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | 27 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 27 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 13 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chaux | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | — | — | — |
| F. Fabra | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Londono | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 42% | — | — | — |
| L. Chaverra | D | 86 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Yony Gonzalez | M | 68 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| A. Serna | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| B. Perlaza | M | 68 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Mena Perea | M | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| F. Fydriszewski | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| F. Chaverra | F | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| D. Catano | M | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Moreno | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| H. Loboa | M | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Montano | F | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
The final score was Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin.
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Flamengo win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Independiente Medellin win.