Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 17, 2026 02:30
✓Model correct — prediction Flamengo
Lucas Paqueta
(ast. Ayrton Lucas)
15'
Bruno Henrique
(ast. G. de Arrascaeta)
45'
G. de Arrascaeta
(ast. Bruno Henrique)
49'
Pedro
(ast. Luiz Araujo)
90'+6
40'
(ast. A. Serna)
Yony Gonzalez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 59% win probability (draw 21%, Independiente Medellin 18%). The final result was Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
8
10
Shots on target
1
2.92
Actual xG
0.30
0
Saves
6
59%
Possession
41%
4
Corners
2
15
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽Lucas Paqueta
· ast. Ayrton Lucas
15'
40'
ast. A. Serna ·
Yony Gonzalez⚽
⚽Bruno Henrique
· ast. G. de Arrascaeta
45'
48'
B. Perlaza
⚽G. de Arrascaeta
· ast. Bruno Henrique
49'
G. de Arrascaeta
/ G. Plata
63'
Samuel Lino
/ Luiz Araujo
63'
64'
68'
M. Palacios
/
E. Mena Perea
68'
D. Catano
/
F. Chaverra
68'
H. Loboa
/
B. Perlaza
68'
J. Montano
/
Yony Gonzalez
70'
L. Chaverra
Luiz Araujo
74'
Lucas Paqueta
/ Pedro
77'
Bruno Henrique
/ N. de la Cruz
77'
J. Carrascal
/ Wallace Yan
83'
86'
D. Catano
86'
D. Moreno
/
L. Chaverra
⚽Pedro
· ast. Luiz Araujo
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
59.98%
Flamengo ←
21.86%
X
18.15%
Independiente
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
59.98%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
2.92
+0.67
0.74
0.30
-0.44
Flamengo dominated by xG (2.92 vs 0.30).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
1 👟
D
Ayrton Lucas
1 👟
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
13
D
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
20
Lucas Paquetá
1 ⚽
77'
M
Lucas Paquetá
1 ⚽
77'
M
52
Evertton Araújo
M
Evertton Araújo
M
16
Samuel Lino
63'
M
Samuel Lino
63'
M
10
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
1 👟
63'
M
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
1 ⚽
1 👟
63'
M
15
J. Carrascal
83'
M
J. Carrascal
83'
M
27
Bruno Henrique
1 ⚽
1 👟
77'
F
Bruno Henrique
1 ⚽
1 👟
77'
F
Bench
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
11
Everton
F
Everton
F
19
G. Plata
27'
F
G. Plata
27'
F
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
7
Luiz Araújo
1 👟
27'
F
Luiz Araújo
1 👟
27'
F
18
N. de la Cruz
13'
M
N. de la Cruz
13'
M
9
Pedro Guilherme
1 ⚽
13'
F
Pedro Guilherme
1 ⚽
13'
F
25
E. Chaux
G
E. Chaux
G
18
F. Fabra
D
F. Fabra
D
33
D. Londoño
D
D. Londoño
D
24
J. Ortiz
D
J. Ortiz
D
2
L. Chaverra
86'
D
L. Chaverra
86'
D
11
Y. González
1 ⚽
68'
M
Y. González
1 ⚽
68'
M
8
Alexis Serna
1 👟
M
Alexis Serna
1 👟
M
14
B. Perlaza
68'
M
B. Perlaza
68'
M
26
E. Mena
68'
M
E. Mena
68'
M
19
F. Fydriszewski
F
F. Fydriszewski
F
13
F. Chaverra
68'
F
F. Chaverra
68'
F
Bench
10
D. Cataño
22'
M
D. Cataño
22'
M
31
D. Moreno
10'
M
D. Moreno
10'
M
16
H. Loboa
22'
M
H. Loboa
22'
M
30
H. Palacios
22'
D
H. Palacios
22'
D
20
J. Montaño
22'
F
J. Montaño
22'
F
5
L. Escorcia
D
L. Escorcia
D
Best on the pitch
Lucas Paquetá
M · Flamengo
9.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 55 pass
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
M · Flamengo
8.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 38 pass
Samuel Lino
M · Flamengo
8.30
1 shots
· 31 pass
Pedro Guilherme
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 5 pass
Bruno Henrique
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 21 pass
Ayrton Lucas
D · Flamengo
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 47 pass
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 47 | 43% | 3 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 73 | 70% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 62 | 55% | 1 | — | — | |
| Emerson Royal | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 57 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 77 | 9.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 54% | 3 | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 58% | 2 | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 63 | 8.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta | M | 63 | 8.60 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 77 | 7.70 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| G. Plata | F | 27 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 27 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8% | — | 1 | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 13 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Guilherme | F | 13 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
Independiente Medellin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Chaux | G | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 23% | — | — | — |
| F. Fabra | D | 90 | 5.70 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| D. Londoño | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 45 | 42% | — | — | — |
| L. Chaverra | D | 86 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. González | M | 68 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Serna | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 35 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| B. Perlaza | M | 68 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| E. Mena | M | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | — | — | — |
| F. Fydriszewski | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| F. Chaverra | F | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 19 | 16% | — | — | — |
| D. Cataño | M | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Moreno | M | 10 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| H. Loboa | M | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Montaño | F | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
The final score was Flamengo 4–1 Independiente Medellin.
What did the model predict before Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
The model assigned 59% probability to a Flamengo win, 21% to a draw, and 18% to an Independiente Medellin win.