Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 5
May 20, 2026 00:00
Luciano Acosta
6'
John Kennedy
70'
24'
(ast. Dorny Romero)
Carlos Melgar
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fluminense a 46% win probability (draw 25%, Bolívar 28%). The final result was Fluminense 2–1 Bolívar. In 1 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bolívar.
Match statistics
21
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
2
2.26
Actual xG
0.20
1
Saves
6
74%
Possession
26%
5
Corners
1
10
Tackles
19
5
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
John Kennedy
-5'
⚽Luciano Acosta
6'
Juan Pablo Freytes
13'
24'
ast. Dorny Romero ·
Carlos Melgar⚽
31'
Santiago Echeverria
Luciano Acosta
43'
Guga
44'
49'
Dorny Romero
Agustín Canobbio
/ Yeferson Soteldo
59'
Nonato
/ Rodrigo Castillo
59'
66'
Ervin Vaca
/
Carlos Melgar
⚽John Kennedy
70'
Guga
/ Samuel Xavier
71'
John Kennedy
/ Germán Cano
71'
74'
Lucas Chávez
/
Patricio Rodríguez
Jefferson Savarino
/ Ganso
76'
Ganso
82'
86'
Luis Paz
/
Jesús Sagredo
Pre-match prediction
46.02%
Fluminense ←
25.58%
X
28.4%
Bolívar
we assigned to the actual result (Fluminense)
46.02%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.21
2.26
+1.05
1.14
0.20
-0.94
Fluminense dominated by xG (2.26 vs 0.20).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Fábio
G
Fábio
G
13
Guilherme Arana
D
Guilherme Arana
D
22
Juan Pablo Freytes
D
Juan Pablo Freytes
D
4
Ignácio
D
Ignácio
D
23
Guga
71'
D
Guga
71'
D
35
Hércules
M
Hércules
M
16
Nonato
59'
M
Nonato
59'
M
11
J. Savarino
76'
M
J. Savarino
76'
M
32
L. Acosta
1 ⚽
M
L. Acosta
1 ⚽
M
17
A. Canobbio
59'
M
A. Canobbio
59'
M
9
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
71'
F
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
71'
F
Bench
5
Facundo Bernal
M
Facundo Bernal
M
10
Ganso
14'
M
Ganso
14'
M
14
Germán Cano
19'
F
Germán Cano
19'
F
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
29
Julián Millán
D
Julián Millán
D
90
Kevin Serna
F
Kevin Serna
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
19
Rodrigo Castillo
31'
F
Rodrigo Castillo
31'
F
2
Samuel Xavier
19'
D
Samuel Xavier
19'
D
98
Vitor Eudes
G
Vitor Eudes
G
7
Yeferson Soteldo
31'
F
Yeferson Soteldo
31'
F
1
Carlos Lampe
G
Carlos Lampe
G
5
Santiago Echeverria
D
Santiago Echeverria
D
3
Xavier Arreaga
D
Xavier Arreaga
D
27
Ignacio Gariglio
D
Ignacio Gariglio
D
4
J. Sagredo
M
J. Sagredo
M
80
C. Melgar
1 ⚽
66'
M
C. Melgar
1 ⚽
66'
M
23
L. Justiniano
M
L. Justiniano
M
14
R. Matheus
M
R. Matheus
M
2
Jesús Sagredo
86'
M
Jesús Sagredo
86'
M
17
P. Rodríguez
74'
F
P. Rodríguez
74'
F
77
D. Romero
1 👟
F
D. Romero
1 👟
F
Bench
11
Brian Oyola
F
Brian Oyola
F
20
Carlos Sejas
M
Carlos Sejas
M
15
Cristian Vedia
M
Cristian Vedia
M
13
Diego Méndez
G
Diego Méndez
G
6
Ervin Vaca
24'
M
Ervin Vaca
24'
M
26
Erwin Saavedra
M
Erwin Saavedra
M
35
Escleizon Freita
D
Escleizon Freita
D
7
Jhon Velásquez
F
Jhon Velásquez
F
19
John García
M
John García
M
18
Lucas Chávez
16'
M
Lucas Chávez
16'
M
8
Luis Paz
11'
D
Luis Paz
11'
D
9
M. Cauteruccio
F
M. Cauteruccio
F
Best on the pitch
Carlos Lampe
G · Bolívar
8.20
· 31 pass
Guga
D · Fluminense
7.90
1 shots
· 59 pass
Nonato
M · Fluminense
7.90
· 60 pass
L. Acosta
M · Fluminense
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 85 pass
C. Melgar
M · Bolívar
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 23 pass
J. Sagredo
M · Bolívar
7.30
· 28 pass
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 10 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 81 | 73% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Freytes | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 73 | 66% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Ignácio | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 60% | 2 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 71 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 56% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 59 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 76 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 39 | 35% | — | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 85 | 70% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 59 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 21% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 71 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 5 | 15 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Ganso | M | 14 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 16 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Germán Cano | F | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | 31 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Lampe | G | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Echeverria | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Xavier Arreaga | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Ignacio Gariglio | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Sagredo | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 66 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 23 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Justiniano | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Matheus | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Sagredo | M | 86 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Rodríguez | F | 74 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| D. Romero | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 13 | 12% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Ervin Vaca | M | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Chávez | M | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Luis Paz | D | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Bolívar?
The final score was Fluminense 2–1 Bolívar.
What did the model predict before Fluminense vs Bolívar?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Fluminense win, 25% to a draw, and 28% to an Bolívar win.