Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 11
April 12, 2026 23:00
J. Savarino
76'
7'
(ast. Samuel Lino)
Pedro
51'
(ast. Samuel Lino)
Pedro
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fluminense a 46% win probability (draw 26%, Flamengo 27%). The final result was Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo.
Match statistics
12
Total shots
14
6
Shots on target
9
1.12
Actual xG
2.30
6
Saves
5
60%
Possession
40%
8
Corners
2
9
Tackles
28
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
L. Acosta
/ PH Ganso
7'
7'
ast. Samuel Lino ·
Pedro⚽
Matheus Martinelli
38'
51'
ast. Samuel Lino ·
Pedro⚽
Martinelli
/ J. Savarino
65'
John Kennedy
/ R. Castillo
65'
67'
Bruno Henrique
/
Samuel Lino
73'
J. Carrascal
/
G. Plata
73'
N. de la Cruz
/
G. de Arrascaeta
⚽J. Savarino
76'
81'
Danilo
/
Pedro
81'
Luiz Araujo
/
Leo Ortiz
Samuel Xavier
/ Guga
86'
Rene
/ Guilherme Arana
86'
Rodrigo Castillo
89'
90'+1
Evertton Araujo
90'+1
Luiz Araújo
90'+2
Bruno Henrique
90'+5
Jorge Carrascal
Pre-match prediction
46.58%
Fluminense
26.28%
X
27.14%
Flamengo ←
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
27.14%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.96
1.12
-0.84
1.01
2.30
+1.29
Flamengo dominated by xG (2.30 vs 1.12).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
6
Renê
86'
D
Renê
86'
D
22
D
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
2
Samuel Xavier
86'
D
Samuel Xavier
86'
D
8
Matheus Martinelli
65'
M
Matheus Martinelli
65'
M
35
Hércules
M
Hércules
M
90
K. Serna
M
K. Serna
M
32
L. Acosta
7'
M
L. Acosta
7'
M
17
A. Canobbio
M
A. Canobbio
M
9
John Kennedy
65'
F
John Kennedy
65'
F
Bench
25
Alisson
M
Alisson
M
5
Facundo Bernal
M
Facundo Bernal
M
23
Guga
12'
D
Guga
12'
D
13
Guilherme Arana
12'
D
Guilherme Arana
12'
D
4
Ignacio
D
Ignacio
D
11
J. Savarino
1 ⚽
33'
F
J. Savarino
1 ⚽
33'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
10
PH Ganso
91'
M
PH Ganso
91'
M
19
R. Castillo
33'
F
R. Castillo
33'
F
1
G
26
Alex Sandro
D
Alex Sandro
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
81'
D
Léo Ortiz
81'
D
2
D
20
Lucas Paquetá
M
Lucas Paquetá
M
52
Evertton Araújo
M
Evertton Araújo
M
16
Samuel Lino
2 👟
67'
M
Samuel Lino
2 👟
67'
M
10
G. de Arrascaeta
73'
M
G. de Arrascaeta
73'
M
19
G. Plata
73'
M
G. Plata
73'
M
9
Pedro
2 ⚽
81'
F
Pedro
2 ⚽
81'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
Ayrton Lucas
D
27
Bruno Henrique
31'
F
Bruno Henrique
31'
F
22
Emerson Royal
D
Emerson Royal
D
15
J. Carrascal
22'
M
J. Carrascal
22'
M
7
Luiz Araújo
17'
F
Luiz Araújo
17'
F
18
N. de la Cruz
25'
M
N. de la Cruz
25'
M
Best on the pitch
Samuel Lino
M · Flamengo
8.50
2 👟
1 shots
· 20 pass
J. Savarino
F · Fluminense
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 19 pass
Pedro
F · Flamengo
8.20
2 ⚽
4 shots
· 18 pass
G · Fluminense
7.70
· 16 pass
Lucas Paquetá
M · Flamengo
7.60
1 shots
· 52 pass
A. Canobbio
M · Fluminense
7.50
· 52 pass
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — | |
| Renê | D | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 81 | 69% | 1 | — | — | |
| Jemmes | D | 98 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 73 | 70% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 56 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 65 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 44% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 63 | 61% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Serna | M | 98 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 24% | — | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| J. Savarino | F | 33 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 19 | 19% | — | — | — |
| PH Ganso | M | 91 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 85 | 77% | — | — | — |
| R. Castillo | F | 33 | 5.60 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Alex Sandro | D | 98 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 81 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 3 | — | — | |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 98 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 52 | 49% | 3 | — | — |
| Evertton Araújo | M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 44% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 67 | 8.50 | — | 2 | 1 | 20 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| G. Plata | M | 73 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 20% | 7 | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 81 | 8.20 | 2 | — | 4 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Carrascal | M | 22 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | 1 |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | 1 | 1 | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Flamengo?
The final score was Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo.
What did the model predict before Fluminense vs Flamengo?
The model assigned 46% probability to a Fluminense win, 26% to a draw, and 27% to an Flamengo win.