Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 02:30
Guilherme Arana
(ast. J. Savarino)
10'
37'
(ast. L. Costa)
F. Sartori
51'
(ast. S. Villa)
A. Arce
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fluminense a 41% win probability (draw 27%, Independ. Rivadavia 31%). The final result was Fluminense 1–2 Independ. Rivadavia. In 3 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 0 times, with 3 draws and 0 wins for Independ. Rivadavia.
Match statistics
19
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
4
1.14
Actual xG
1.01
2
Saves
8
71%
Possession
29%
1
Corners
1
14
Tackles
10
0
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽Guilherme Arana
· ast. J. Savarino
10'
17'
M. Fernandez
33'
E. Bonifacio
37'
ast. L. Costa ·
F. Sartori⚽
Hercules
/ F. Bernal
46'
51'
ast. S. Villa ·
A. Arce⚽
Samuel Xavier
/ Guga
66'
PH Ganso
/ K. Serna
66'
68'
F. Sartori
74'
A. Osella
/
L. Gomez
74'
J. M. Elordi
/
E. Bonifacio
Ignacio
/ John Kennedy
77'
81'
G. Rios
/
M. Fernandez
81'
L. Bucca
/
A. Arce
A. Canobbio
/ Wesley Nata
81'
Wesley Nata
84'
87'
I. Villalba
/
F. Sartori
89'
N. Bolcato
Pre-match prediction
41.55%
Fluminense
27.23%
X
31.22%
Independ. ←
we assigned to the actual result (Independ. Rivadavia)
31.22%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.45
1.14
-0.31
1.24
1.01
-0.24
xG dominance was balanced (1.14 – 1.01).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
G
13
Guilherme Arana
1 ⚽
D
Guilherme Arana
1 ⚽
D
22
D
4
Ignacio
77'
D
Ignacio
77'
D
2
Samuel Xavier
66'
D
Samuel Xavier
66'
D
8
Matheus Martinelli
M
Matheus Martinelli
M
35
Hércules
45'
M
Hércules
45'
M
11
J. Savarino
1 👟
M
J. Savarino
1 👟
M
10
PH Ganso
66'
M
PH Ganso
66'
M
17
A. Canobbio
81'
M
A. Canobbio
81'
M
19
R. Castillo
F
R. Castillo
F
Bench
25
Alisson
M
Alisson
M
5
Facundo Bernal
45'
M
Facundo Bernal
45'
M
23
Guga
24'
D
Guga
24'
D
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
9
John Kennedy
13'
F
John Kennedy
13'
F
90
K. Serna
24'
F
K. Serna
24'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
1
Nicolás Bolcato
G
Nicolás Bolcato
G
14
L. Gómez
74'
D
L. Gómez
74'
D
42
S. Studer
D
S. Studer
D
2
L. Costa
1 👟
D
L. Costa
1 👟
D
36
E. Bonifacio
74'
D
E. Bonifacio
74'
D
25
J. Florentín
M
J. Florentín
M
5
T. Bottari
M
T. Bottari
M
22
S. Villa
1 👟
M
S. Villa
1 👟
M
43
F. Sartori
1 ⚽
87'
M
F. Sartori
1 ⚽
87'
M
10
M. Fernández
81'
M
M. Fernández
81'
M
9
Alex Arce
1 ⚽
81'
F
Alex Arce
1 ⚽
81'
F
Bench
13
A. Osella
16'
D
A. Osella
16'
D
20
A. Riep
M
A. Riep
M
27
D. Crego
M
D. Crego
M
11
G. Ríos
9'
M
G. Ríos
9'
M
40
I. Villalba
9'
D
I. Villalba
9'
D
3
J. Elordi
16'
D
J. Elordi
16'
D
8
L. Bucca
9'
M
L. Bucca
9'
M
19
R. Atencio
F
R. Atencio
F
7
V. Ramis
F
V. Ramis
F
Best on the pitch
F. Sartori
M · Independ.
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 11 pass
Nicolás Bolcato
G · Independ.
7.30
· 36 pass
Guilherme Arana
D · Fluminense
7.20
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 66 pass
Guga
D · Fluminense
7.00
· 23 pass
Matheus Martinelli
M · Fluminense
7.00
3 shots
· 79 pass
J. Savarino
M · Fluminense
7.00
1 👟
4 shots
· 48 pass
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 66 | 58% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 83 | 73% | — | — | — | |
| Ignacio | D | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 66 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 48 | 44% | 3 | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 79 | 68% | 3 | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | — | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 4 | 48 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| PH Ganso | M | 66 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 44% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Castillo | F | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 4 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 24 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| K. Serna | F | 24 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
Independ. Rivadavia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Bolcato | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| L. Gómez | D | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Studer | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | — | — | — |
| L. Costa | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 17 | 12% | — | — | — |
| E. Bonifacio | D | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | — | 1 | — |
| J. Florentín | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 20% | 3 | — | — |
| T. Bottari | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| S. Villa | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Sartori | M | 87 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| M. Fernández | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Alex Arce | F | 81 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 17 | 10% | — | — | — |
| A. Osella | D | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Ríos | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Villalba | D | 9 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| J. Elordi | D | 16 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| L. Bucca | M | 9 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The final score was Fluminense 1–2 Independ. Rivadavia.
What did the model predict before Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia?
The model assigned 41% probability to a Fluminense win, 27% to a draw, and 31% to an Independ. Rivadavia win.