Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 16
May 17, 2026 00:00
John Kennedy
(ast. Guilherme Arana)
19'
A. Canobbio
(ast. L. Acosta)
44'
79'
(ast. Sabino)
Matheus Doria
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fluminense a 53% win probability (draw 21%, Sao Paulo 24%). The final result was Fluminense 2–1 Sao Paulo.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
7
1.48
Actual xG
1.01
6
Saves
1
50%
Possession
50%
3
Corners
5
13
Tackles
21
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
⚽John Kennedy
· ast. Guilherme Arana
19'
30'
Andre Silva
⚽A. Canobbio
· ast. L. Acosta
44'
John Kennedy
/ R. Castillo
61'
L. Acosta
/ K. Serna
61'
64'
Ferreira
/
Cauly
67'
Artur
76'
E. Diaz
76'
Luan Silva
/
Wendell
77'
G. Tapia
/
Andre Silva
79'
ast. Sabino ·
Matheus Doria⚽
A. Canobbio
/ Y. Soteldo
83'
Nonato
/ F. Bernal
83'
F. Bernal
86'
90'+2
90'+5
C. Soares
/
Lucas Ramon
J. Freytes
90'+7
90'
D. Bobadilla
Pre-match prediction
53.31%
Fluminense ←
21.86%
X
24.83%
Sao
we assigned to the actual result (Fluminense)
53.31%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.19
1.48
-0.71
1.41
1.01
-0.4
Fluminense dominated by xG (1.48 vs 1.01).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Fábio
G
Fábio
G
13
Guilherme Arana
1 👟
D
Guilherme Arana
1 👟
D
22
J. Freytes
D
J. Freytes
D
4
Ignacio
D
Ignacio
D
23
Guga
D
Guga
D
35
Hércules
M
Hércules
M
16
Nonato
83'
M
Nonato
83'
M
11
J. Savarino
M
J. Savarino
M
32
L. Acosta
1 👟
61'
M
L. Acosta
1 👟
61'
M
17
A. Canobbio
1 ⚽
83'
M
A. Canobbio
1 ⚽
83'
M
9
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
61'
F
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
61'
F
Bench
5
Facundo Bernal
15'
M
Facundo Bernal
15'
M
14
G. Cano
F
G. Cano
F
21
Igor Rabello
D
Igor Rabello
D
3
Jemmes
D
Jemmes
D
90
K. Serna
37'
F
K. Serna
37'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
10
PH Ganso
M
PH Ganso
M
19
R. Castillo
37'
F
R. Castillo
37'
F
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
98
Vitor Eudes
G
Vitor Eudes
G
7
Y. Soteldo
15'
F
Y. Soteldo
15'
F
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
13
E. Díaz
D
E. Díaz
D
35
Sabino
1 👟
D
Sabino
1 👟
D
4
Dória
1 ⚽
D
Dória
1 ⚽
D
19
Lucas Ramon
D
Lucas Ramon
D
94
Danielzinho
M
Danielzinho
M
16
Damián Bobadilla
M
Damián Bobadilla
M
18
Wendell
76'
M
Wendell
76'
M
80
Cauly
64'
M
Cauly
64'
M
37
Artur
M
Artur
M
17
André Silva
77'
F
André Silva
77'
F
Bench
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
3'
D
Cédric Soares
3'
D
48
D. Ferreira
M
D. Ferreira
M
30
Felipe Negrucci
M
Felipe Negrucci
M
11
Ferreira
34'
F
Ferreira
34'
F
14
Gonzalo Tapia
21'
F
Gonzalo Tapia
21'
F
38
Leonardo Hugo
D
Leonardo Hugo
D
33
Luan Santos
22'
M
Luan Santos
22'
M
45
Lucca
F
Lucca
F
15
Moreira
D
Moreira
D
54
Osorio Luis
D
Osorio Luis
D
46
Pedro Ferreira
M
Pedro Ferreira
M
Best on the pitch
A. Canobbio
M · Fluminense
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 34 pass
Fábio
G · Fluminense
7.70
· 25 pass
Sabino
D · Sao
7.50
1 👟
2 shots
· 38 pass
J. Savarino
M · Fluminense
7.20
1 shots
· 39 pass
L. Acosta
M · Fluminense
7.20
1 👟
· 42 pass
John Kennedy
F · Fluminense
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 9 pass
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 98 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 3 | 51 | 45% | — | — | — |
| J. Freytes | D | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 55 | 51% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ignacio | D | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 55 | 50% | 1 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 44 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 83 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 33% | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 61 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 42 | 31% | — | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 83 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 34 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 61 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Serna | F | 37 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Castillo | F | 37 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 15% | — | — | — |
| E. Díaz | D | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 47% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Sabino | D | 98 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 38 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| Dória | D | 98 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 3 | 42 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 95 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 59 | 53% | — | — | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 67 | 59% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Wendell | M | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 64 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Artur | M | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 34% | 2 | 1 | — |
| André Silva | F | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferreira | F | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Tapia | F | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | 22 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 11 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Sao Paulo?
The final score was Fluminense 2–1 Sao Paulo.
What did the model predict before Fluminense vs Sao Paulo?
The model assigned 53% probability to a Fluminense win, 21% to a draw, and 24% to an Sao Paulo win.