Canadian Premier League · Group Stage August 20, 2026 01:00

Forge

#2 · 42 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Supra du Quebec

#5 · 22 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Forge

H. Massunda (ast. T. Borges) 22'

D. Nimick 30' (pen.)

A. Sadek (ast. M. Bourgeois) 77'

12' I. Conde

39' (ast. D. Choiniere) I. Conde

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Forge a 61% win probability (draw 21%, Supra du Quebec 17%). The final result was Forge 3–2 Supra du Quebec. In 3 previous meetings, Forge have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Supra du Quebec.

Match statistics

4

Shots on target

3

2.14

Actual xG

1.56

41%

Possession

59%

6

Corners

3

Match Events

12'

I. Conde⚽

⚽H. Massunda · ast. T. Borges

22'

29'

C. Auguste

⚽D. Nimick (pen.)

30'

39'

ast. D. Choiniere · I. Conde⚽

↕ T. Borges / A. Sadek

46'

↕ K. Bekker / A. Aromatario

64'

64'

L. A. Kwemi / R. Bey ↕

A. Aromatario

65'

↕ N. Ampomah / M. Babouli

69'

↕ I. Oketokoun / B. Wright

69'

73'

L. A. Kwemi

↕ H. Massunda / K. Tavernier

75'

⚽A. Sadek · ast. M. Bourgeois

77'

81'

A. Makarova / T. Lebeuf ↕

81'

A. Sissoko / A. Biello ↕

81'

C. Bayiha / D. Choiniere ↕

↕ A. Sadek / Z. Bruno

90'+1

90'

Z. Fernandez / C. Auguste ↕

Pre-match prediction

61.12%

Forge ←

21.18%

X

17.7%

Supra

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Forge) 61.12% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Forge

1.93

2.14

+0.21

Supra

0.86

1.56

+0.7

Forge dominated by xG (2.14 vs 1.56). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	20	46
2	Forge	20	42
3	Atlético Ottawa	21	34
4	Vancouver FC	21	30
5	Supra du Quebec	20	22
6	HFX Wanderers FC	21	20
7	York United	19	20
8	Pacific FC	20	10