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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 10 October 25, 2026 12:15 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
Fortuna Sittard
#6 · 18 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Excelsior
#13 · 11 pts
Rodrigo Guth (ast. Mohammed Ihattaren) 90'+1
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fortuna Sittard a 35% win probability (draw 29%, Excelsior 35%). The final result was Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior. In 2 previous meetings, Fortuna Sittard have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Excelsior.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
2
0.78
Actual xG
0.41
2
Saves
3
43%
Possession
57%
7
Corners
4
8
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Sven Simons
41'
45'
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson / Noah Naujoks ↕
↕ Sven Simons / Ole Romeny
45'
56'
David Garden / Nesto groen ↕
Shiloh 't Zand
58'
↕ Nick de Groot / Jasper Dahlhaus
66'
↕ Kristoffer Peterson / Daley Sinkgraven
66'
68'
Irakli Yegoian
76'
Alireza Jahanbakhsh / Aymen sliti ↕
76'
Simon Janssen / Kasey Bos ↕
↕ Philip Brittijn / Mohammed Ihattaren
82'
↕ Edouard Michut / Iván Márquez
86'
⚽Rodrigo Guth · ast. Mohammed Ihattaren
90'+1
Pre-match prediction
35.6%
Fortuna ←
29.22%
X
35.18%
Excelsior
we assigned to the actual result (Fortuna Sittard) 35.6% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Fortuna
1.11
0.78
-0.33
Excelsior
1.18
0.41
-0.78
Fortuna Sittard dominated by xG (0.78 vs 0.41). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Feyenoord Feyenoord 10 24
2 Ajax Ajax 10 21
3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 10 20
4 Twente Twente 10 20
5 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 10 20
6 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 10 18
7 Heerenveen Heerenveen 10 15
8 Groningen Groningen 10 15
9 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles 10 14
10 Cambuur Cambuur 10 12
11 Utrecht Utrecht 10 12
12 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 10 11
13 Excelsior Excelsior 10 11
14 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 10 9
15 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 10 8
16 Telstar Telstar 10 6
17 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 10 6
18 Willem II Willem II 10 2
Lineups
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 4-3-3
31 M. Branderhorst M. Branderhorst G 6.78
15 N. de Groot N. de Groot 66' D 6.53
28 Justin Quincy Hubner Justin Quincy Hubner D 7.97
3 Rodrigo Guth Rodrigo Guth 1 ⚽ D 7.92
12 Ivo Pinto Ivo Pinto D 7.00
20 É. Michut É. Michut 86' M 7.07
6 S. van Ottele S. van Ottele M 7.27
23 P. Brittijn P. Brittijn 82' M 6.64
22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand F 6.41
14 S. Simons S. Simons 45' F 6.71
7 K. Peterson K. Peterson 66' F 6.54
Bench
24 D. Sinkgraven D. Sinkgraven 24' D 7.09
39 Ganni Buyukhan Ganni Buyukhan M 0.00
4 Iván Márquez Iván Márquez 4' D 7.00
8 J. Dahlhaus J. Dahlhaus 24' D 6.77
33 K. Reitmaier K. Reitmaier G 0.00
1 L. Koopmans L. Koopmans G 0.00
52 M. Ihattaren M. Ihattaren 1 👟 8' M 7.26
10 O. Romeny O. Romeny 45' F 6.57
2 S. Wylin S. Wylin D 0.00
5 Y. Oukili Y. Oukili M 0.00
Excelsior Excelsior 4-3-3
1 S. van Gassel S. van Gassel G 6.88
12 K. Bos K. Bos 76' D 6.60
14 J. Plug J. Plug D 6.84
4 C. Widell C. Widell D 7.42
3 R. Meissen R. Meissen D 6.89
6 D. van Vianen D. van Vianen M 6.51
20 L. Hartjes L. Hartjes M 6.63
10 N. Naujoks N. Naujoks 45' M 6.41
8 I. Yegoian I. Yegoian F 6.06
28 N. Groen N. Groen 56' F 6.19
7 A. Sliti A. Sliti 76' F 6.49
Bench
11 A. Jahanbakhsh A. Jahanbakhsh 14' F 6.26
30 Á. Þorsteinsson Á. Þorsteinsson 45' M 6.05
16 Celton Biai Celton Biai G 0.00
19 D. Garden D. Garden 34' F 6.22
2 Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira F 0.00
24 Giulliano Cairo Giulliano Cairo M 0.00
21 I. Silva Timas I. Silva Timas F 0.00
9 Mario Domínguez Mario Domínguez F 0.00
15 S. Janssen S. Janssen 14' D 6.69
18 V. Sulzbacher V. Sulzbacher M 0.00
Best on the pitch
Justin Quincy Hubner
Justin Quincy Hubner
D · Fortuna
7.97
2 shots · 64 pass
Rodrigo Guth
Rodrigo Guth
D · Fortuna
7.92
1 ⚽
2 shots · 52 pass
C. Widell
C. Widell
D · Excelsior
7.42
1 shots · 72 pass
S. van Ottele
S. van Ottele
M · Fortuna
7.27
· 62 pass
M. Ihattaren
M. Ihattaren
M · Fortuna
7.26
1 👟
· 7 pass
D. Sinkgraven
D. Sinkgraven
D · Fortuna
7.09
· 9 pass
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Branderhorst G 90 6.78 — — 0 29 16% 0 — —
N. de Groot D 66 6.53 — — 0 25 16% 1 — —
Justin Quincy Hubner D 90 7.97 — — 2 64 56% 3 — —
Rodrigo Guth D 90 7.92 1 — 2 52 44% 0 — —
Ivo Pinto D 90 7.00 — — 0 31 26% 0 — —
É. Michut M 86 7.07 — — 2 44 40% 0 — —
S. van Ottele M 90 7.27 — — 0 62 52% 2 — —
P. Brittijn M 82 6.64 — — 0 18 12% 1 — —
Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand F 90 6.41 — — 0 16 14% 0 1 —
S. Simons F 45 6.71 — — 0 10 5% 0 1 —
K. Peterson F 66 6.54 — — 0 10 7% 0 — —
D. Sinkgraven D 24 7.09 — — 0 9 6% 1 — —
Iván Márquez D 4 7.00 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
J. Dahlhaus D 24 6.77 — — 0 8 6% 0 — —
M. Ihattaren M 8 7.26 — 1 0 7 3% 0 — —
O. Romeny F 45 6.57 — — 1 7 6% 0 — —
Excelsior Excelsior — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. van Gassel G 90 6.88 — — 0 47 32% 0 — —
K. Bos D 76 6.60 — — 0 37 30% 2 — —
J. Plug D 90 6.84 — — 0 103 93% 1 — —
C. Widell D 90 7.42 — — 1 72 63% 2 — —
R. Meissen D 90 6.89 — — 1 73 58% 2 — —
D. van Vianen M 90 6.51 — — 0 38 35% 1 — —
L. Hartjes M 90 6.63 — — 0 46 45% 2 — —
N. Naujoks M 45 6.41 — — 0 13 7% 0 — —
I. Yegoian F 90 6.06 — — 1 43 41% 0 1 —
N. Groen F 56 6.19 — — 1 7 2% 0 — —
A. Sliti F 76 6.49 — — 2 34 27% 0 — —
A. Jahanbakhsh F 14 6.26 — — 0 6 4% 0 — —
Á. Þorsteinsson M 45 6.05 — — 0 13 13% 0 — —
D. Garden F 34 6.22 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
S. Janssen D 14 6.69 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
The final score was Fortuna Sittard 1–0 Excelsior.
What did the model predict before Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
The model assigned 35% probability to a Fortuna Sittard win, 29% to a draw, and 35% to an Excelsior win.