France - Belgium
⚡ Pre-match analysis
68.73%
Win
France
12.61%
Draw
18.66%
Win
Belgium
4.5
2.41
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
France
68.73%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
4–2
(5.44%)
1X2 Result
1
69%
X
13%
2
19%
Double Chance
1X
81%
X2
31%
12
87%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
86%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives France a 68% win probability, against 12% for a draw and 18% for Belgium. Expected goals are 4.5 for France and 2.4 for Belgium (total 6.9), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–2 at 5.44% probability. In 3 previous meetings, France have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Belgium.
Season Stats
6W
1D
3L
2W
1D
5L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.2
1.3
Conceded
1.5
6.4
Shots OT
5.0
6.8
Corners
7.6
56%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
90%
O 1.5
75%
50%
O 2.5
63%
50%
BTTS
50%
40%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
38%
O 3.5
38%
BTTS
2W
1D
1L
· at home
0W
1D
3L
· away
1.2
gls/g
0.8
0.8
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
25%
75%
O 1.5
75%
25%
O 2.5
50%
25%
O 3.5
50%
25%
BTTS
50%
75%
Clean Sht
0%
25%
Failed to Score
50%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ France
Belgium →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 5 | 1.5% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
Recent form
Playing profile
France
Attack
63
Defence
73
Form
69
Belgium
Attack
57
Defence
71
Form
51
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
France
Injured
Belgium
Injured
Injured
Injured
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #3 |
| → France | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Belgium | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win France vs Belgium?
The model gives France a 68% win probability, 12% for a draw, and 18% for an Belgium win.
How many goals are expected in France vs Belgium?
Expected goals: France 4.5, Belgium 2.4 (total 6.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in France vs Belgium?
4–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 5.44%.