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World Cup · 3rd Place Final July 18, 2026 23:00 Exploria Stadium, Orlando
France
#1 · 9 pts
4 – 6
Final score
England
#1 · 7 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction France, result England wins
K. Mbappe (ast. M. Olise) 48'
B. Barcola (ast. K. Mbappe) 54'
K. Mbappe (ast. M. Olise) 66'
O. Dembele (ast. D. Upamecano) 90'+6
3' D. Rice
18' (ast. D. Rice) E. Konsa
37' (ast. M. Rashford) B. Saka
45'+1 (ast. E. Eze) B. Saka
(pen.) 87' B. Saka
90'+8 J. Bellingham
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave France a 58% win probability (draw 23%, England 17%). The final result was France 4–6 England.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
13
9
Shots on target
11
2.87
Actual xG
2.58
4
Saves
5
46%
Possession
54%
3
Corners
4
16
Tackles
25
Match Events
3'
D. Rice⚽
18'
ast. D. Rice · E. Konsa⚽
37'
ast. M. Rashford · B. Saka⚽
45'+1
ast. E. Eze · B. Saka⚽
↕ R. Cherki / O. Dembele
46'
↕ D. Doue / B. Barcola
46'
↕ T. Hernandez / L. Digne
46'
↕ I. Konate / D. Upamecano
46'
46'
O. Watkins / M. Rashford ↕
⚽K. Mbappe · ast. M. Olise
48'
⚽B. Barcola · ast. K. Mbappe
54'
⚽K. Mbappe · ast. M. Olise
66'
79'
E. Anderson / I. Toney ↕
79'
J. Bellingham / E. Eze ↕
83'
R. James / J. Quansah ↕
87'
(pen.) B. Saka⚽
↕ M. Gusto / J. Kounde
90'+1
90'+3
T. Chalobah / M. Guehi ↕
⚽O. Dembele · ast. D. Upamecano
90'+6
90'+8
J. Bellingham⚽
Pre-match prediction
58.31%
France
23.9%
X
17.79%
England ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (England) 17.79% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
France
2.18
2.87
+0.69
England
0.98
2.58
+1.6
xG dominance was balanced (2.87 – 2.58). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 France France 3 9
2 Norway Norway 3 6
3 Senegal Senegal 3 3
4 Iraq Iraq 3 0
Lineups
France France 4-2-3-1
16 Mike Maignan Mike Maignan G 6.00
19 Theo Hernández Theo Hernández 45' D 5.90
26 Maxence Lacroix Maxence Lacroix D 7.50
15 Ibrahima Konaté Ibrahima Konaté 45' D 5.30
2 Malo Gusto Malo Gusto 89' D 5.30
14 A. Rabiot A. Rabiot M 6.30
18 Warren Zaïre-Emery Warren Zaïre-Emery M 6.70
20 D. Doué D. Doué 45' M 5.90
24 Rayan Cherki Rayan Cherki 45' M 6.50
11 M. Olise M. Olise 2 👟 M 7.00
10 Kylian Mbappé Kylian Mbappé 2 ⚽ 1 👟 F 10.00
Bench
8 A. Tchouaméni A. Tchouaméni M
12 B. Barcola B. Barcola 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.90
1 Brice Samba Brice Samba G
4 D. Upamecano D. Upamecano 1 👟 45' D 6.50
22 Jean-Philippe Mateta Jean-Philippe Mateta F
5 Jules Koundé Jules Koundé 8' D 6.20
3 Lucas Digne Lucas Digne 45' D 6.30
21 Lucas Hernández Lucas Hernández D
25 Maghnes Akliouche Maghnes Akliouche M
6 Manu Koné Manu Koné M
9 Marcus Thuram Marcus Thuram F
13 N'Golo Kanté N'Golo Kanté M
7 O. Dembélé O. Dembélé 1 ⚽ 45' F 8.20
23 Robin Risser Robin Risser G
17 William Saliba William Saliba D
England England 4-1-4-1
13 Dean Henderson Dean Henderson G 7.00
25 Djed Spence Djed Spence D 6.90
6 M. Guéhi M. Guéhi 89' D 7.20
2 Ezri Konsa Ezri Konsa 1 ⚽ D 7.30
26 J. Quansah J. Quansah 83' D 6.20
4 D. Rice D. Rice 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.30
11 M. Rashford M. Rashford 1 👟 45' M 6.90
21 Eberechi Eze Eberechi Eze 1 👟 79' M 7.30
17 Morgan Rogers Morgan Rogers M 6.70
7 B. Saka B. Saka 3 ⚽ M 9.30
22 I. Toney I. Toney 79' F 6.90
Bench
18 A. Gordon A. Gordon F
15 Dan Burn Dan Burn D
8 Elliot Anderson Elliot Anderson 11' M 6.30
9 H. Kane H. Kane F
23 James Trafford James Trafford G
10 J. Bellingham J. Bellingham 1 ⚽ 11' M 8.30
5 John Stones John Stones D
14 Jordan Henderson Jordan Henderson M
1 Jordan Pickford Jordan Pickford G
3 Nico O'Reilly Nico O'Reilly D
20 Noni Madueke Noni Madueke F
19 Ollie Watkins Ollie Watkins 45' F 6.20
24 Reece James Reece James 16' D 6.70
12 Trevoh Chalobah Trevoh Chalobah 1' D
Best on the pitch
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé
F · France
10.00
2 ⚽ 1 👟
6 shots · 32 pass
B. Saka
B. Saka
M · England
9.30
3 ⚽
4 shots · 23 pass
D. Rice
D. Rice
M · England
9.30
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 91 pass
J. Bellingham
J. Bellingham
M · England
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 8 pass
O. Dembélé
O. Dembélé
F · France
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 28 pass
B. Barcola
B. Barcola
F · France
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 12 pass
France France — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mike Maignan G 90 6.00 — — — 12 11% — — —
Theo Hernández D 45 5.90 — — — 24 20% — — —
Maxence Lacroix D 90 7.50 — — — 35 34% 1 — —
Ibrahima Konaté D 45 5.30 — — — 23 21% — — —
Malo Gusto D 89 5.30 — — — 42 36% 3 — —
A. Rabiot M 90 6.30 — — 1 39 37% 2 — —
Warren Zaïre-Emery M 90 6.70 — — — 57 54% — — —
D. Doué M 45 5.90 — — — 20 19% 1 — —
Rayan Cherki M 45 6.50 — — 1 29 25% — — —
M. Olise M 90 7.00 — 2 3 56 49% 5 — —
Kylian Mbappé F 90 10.00 2 1 6 32 28% — — —
B. Barcola F 45 7.90 1 — 1 12 12% 1 — —
D. Upamecano D 45 6.50 — 1 1 13 12% 3 — —
Jules Koundé D 8 6.20 — — — 5 5% — — —
Lucas Digne D 45 6.30 — — — 18 17% — — —
O. Dembélé F 45 8.20 1 — 2 28 25% — — —
England England — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Dean Henderson G 90 7.00 — — — 37 28% — — —
Djed Spence D 90 6.90 — — — 37 32% 4 — —
M. Guéhi D 89 7.20 — — — 77 72% 2 — —
Ezri Konsa D 90 7.30 1 — 1 47 45% 2 — —
J. Quansah D 83 6.20 — — — 35 32% 1 — —
D. Rice M 90 9.30 1 1 1 91 87% 7 — —
M. Rashford M 45 6.90 — 1 2 20 18% — — —
Eberechi Eze M 79 7.30 — 1 1 56 56% — — —
Morgan Rogers M 90 6.70 — — — 42 38% 1 — —
B. Saka M 90 9.30 3 — 4 23 18% 3 — —
I. Toney F 79 6.90 — — 1 18 14% 2 — —
Elliot Anderson M 11 6.30 — — — 11 11% 1 — —
J. Bellingham M 11 8.30 1 — 2 8 5% — — —
Ollie Watkins F 45 6.20 — — 1 11 9% 1 — —
Reece James D 16 6.70 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
Trevoh Chalobah D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of France vs England?
The final score was France 4–6 England.
What did the model predict before France vs England?
The model assigned 58% probability to a France win, 23% to a draw, and 17% to an England win.