France 4–6 England — pre-match prediction — World Cup — July 18, 2026

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World Cup · 3rd Place Final July 18, 2026 23:00 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata

France

#1 · 9 pts

4 – 6

Final score

England

#1 · 7 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction France, result England wins

K. Mbappe (ast. M. Olise) 48'

B. Barcola (ast. K. Mbappe) 54'

K. Mbappe (ast. M. Olise) 66'

O. Dembele (ast. D. Upamecano) 90'+6

3' D. Rice

18' (ast. D. Rice) E. Konsa

37' (ast. M. Rashford) B. Saka

45'+1 (ast. E. Eze) B. Saka

(pen.) 87' B. Saka

90'+8 J. Bellingham

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave France a 58% win probability (draw 23%, England 17%). The final result was France 4–6 England.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.87

Actual xG

2.58

Saves

46%

Possession

54%

Corners

Tackles

Match Events

D. Rice⚽

18'

ast. D. Rice · E. Konsa⚽

37'

ast. M. Rashford · B. Saka⚽

45'+1

ast. E. Eze · B. Saka⚽

↕ R. Cherki / O. Dembele

46'

↕ D. Doue / B. Barcola

46'

↕ T. Hernandez / L. Digne

46'

↕ I. Konate / D. Upamecano

46'

O. Watkins / M. Rashford ↕

⚽K. Mbappe · ast. M. Olise

48'

⚽B. Barcola · ast. K. Mbappe

54'

⚽K. Mbappe · ast. M. Olise

66'

79'

E. Anderson / I. Toney ↕

79'

J. Bellingham / E. Eze ↕

83'

R. James / J. Quansah ↕

87'

(pen.) B. Saka⚽

↕ M. Gusto / J. Kounde

90'+1

90'+3

T. Chalobah / M. Guehi ↕

⚽O. Dembele · ast. D. Upamecano

90'+6

90'+8

J. Bellingham⚽

Pre-match prediction

58.31%

France

23.9%

17.79%

England ←

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (England) 17.79% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

France

2.18

2.87

+0.69

England

0.98

2.58

+1.6

xG dominance was balanced (2.87 – 2.58). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	France	3	9
2	Norway	3	6
3	Senegal	3	3
4	Iraq	3	0

Lineups

France 4-2-3-1

Mike Maignan G 6.00

Theo Hernández 45' D 5.90

M. Lacroix D 7.50

I. Konaté 45' D 5.30

M. Gusto 89' D 5.30

Adrien Rabiot M 6.30

W. Zaïre-Emery M 6.70

D. Doué 45' M 5.90

R. Cherki 45' M 6.50

M. Olise 2 👟 M 7.00

Kylian Mbappé 2 ⚽ 1 👟 F 10.00

Bench

A. Tchouaméni M

B. Barcola 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.90

B. Samba G

D. Upamecano 1 👟 45' D 6.50

Jean-Philippe Mateta F

J. Koundé 8' D 6.20

L. Digne 45' D 6.30

L. Hernández D

M. Akliouche M

M. Koné M

M. Thuram F

N. Kanté M

O. Dembélé 1 ⚽ 45' F 8.20

R. Risser G

William Saliba D

England 4-1-4-1

D. Henderson G 7.00

Djed Spence D 6.90

M. Guéhi 89' D 7.20

E. Konsa 1 ⚽ D 7.30

J. Quansah 83' D 6.20

D. Rice 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.30

M. Rashford 1 👟 45' M 6.90

E. Eze 1 👟 79' M 7.30

M. Rogers M 6.70

B. Saka 3 ⚽ M 9.30

I. Toney 79' F 6.90

Bench

A. Gordon F

Dan Burn D

E. Anderson 11' M 6.30

H. Kane F

J. Bellingham 1 ⚽ 11' M 8.30

Jordan Henderson M

J. Pickford G

J. Stones D

J. Trafford G

N. Madueke F

N. O'Reilly D

O. Watkins 45' F 6.20

R. James 16' D 6.70

T. Chalobah 1' D

Best on the pitch

Kylian Mbappé

F · France

10.00

2 ⚽ 1 👟

6 shots · 32 pass

B. Saka

M · England

9.30

3 ⚽

4 shots · 23 pass

D. Rice

M · England

9.30

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 91 pass

J. Bellingham

M · England

8.30

1 ⚽

2 shots · 8 pass

O. Dembélé

F · France

8.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 28 pass

B. Barcola

F · France

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 12 pass

France — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Mike Maignan	G	90	6.00	—	—	—	12	11%	—	—	—
Theo Hernández	D	45	5.90	—	—	—	24	20%	—	—	—
M. Lacroix	D	90	7.50	—	—	—	35	34%	1	—	—
I. Konaté	D	45	5.30	—	—	—	23	21%	—	—	—
M. Gusto	D	89	5.30	—	—	—	42	36%	3	—	—
Adrien Rabiot	M	90	6.30	—	—	1	39	37%	2	—	—
W. Zaïre-Emery	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	57	54%	—	—	—
D. Doué	M	45	5.90	—	—	—	20	19%	1	—	—
R. Cherki	M	45	6.50	—	—	1	29	25%	—	—	—
M. Olise	M	90	7.00	—	2	3	56	49%	5	—	—
Kylian Mbappé	F	90	10.00	2	1	6	32	28%	—	—	—
B. Barcola	F	45	7.90	1	—	1	12	12%	1	—	—
D. Upamecano	D	45	6.50	—	1	1	13	12%	3	—	—
J. Koundé	D	8	6.20	—	—	—	5	5%	—	—	—
L. Digne	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	18	17%	—	—	—
O. Dembélé	F	45	8.20	1	—	2	28	25%	—	—	—

England — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
D. Henderson	G	90	7.00	—	—	—	37	28%	—	—	—
Djed Spence	D	90	6.90	—	—	—	37	32%	4	—	—
M. Guéhi	D	89	7.20	—	—	—	77	72%	2	—	—
E. Konsa	D	90	7.30	1	—	1	47	45%	2	—	—
J. Quansah	D	83	6.20	—	—	—	35	32%	1	—	—
D. Rice	M	90	9.30	1	1	1	91	87%	7	—	—
M. Rashford	M	45	6.90	—	1	2	20	18%	—	—	—
E. Eze	M	79	7.30	—	1	1	56	56%	—	—	—
M. Rogers	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	42	38%	1	—	—
B. Saka	M	90	9.30	3	—	4	23	18%	3	—	—
I. Toney	F	79	6.90	—	—	1	18	14%	2	—	—
E. Anderson	M	11	6.30	—	—	—	11	11%	1	—	—
J. Bellingham	M	11	8.30	1	—	2	8	5%	—	—	—
O. Watkins	F	45	6.20	—	—	1	11	9%	1	—	—
R. James	D	16	6.70	—	—	—	2	2%	1	—	—
T. Chalobah	D	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of France vs England?

The final score was France 4–6 England.

What did the model predict before France vs England?

The model assigned 58% probability to a France win, 23% to a draw, and 17% to an England win.