France - Italy
⚡ Pre-match analysis
74.13%
Win
France
11.99%
Draw
13.88%
Win
Italy
4.03
1.81
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
France
74.13%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
4–1
(6.12%)
1X2 Result
1
74%
X
12%
2
14%
Double Chance
1X
86%
X2
26%
12
88%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
86%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives France a 74% win probability, against 11% for a draw and 13% for Italy. Expected goals are 4.0 for France and 1.8 for Italy (total 5.8), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–1 at 6.12% probability. In 2 previous meetings, France have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Italy.
Season Stats
6W
1D
3L
4W
2D
2L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
2.1
1.3
Conceded
1.6
6.4
Shots OT
5.0
6.8
Corners
4.0
56%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
90%
O 1.5
88%
50%
O 2.5
88%
50%
BTTS
88%
40%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
38%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
2W
1D
1L
· at home
3W
1D
0L
· away
1.2
gls/g
2.2
0.8
Conceded
1.2
50%
Win %
75%
75%
Win or Draw
100%
75%
O 1.5
75%
25%
O 2.5
75%
25%
O 3.5
50%
25%
BTTS
75%
75%
Clean Sht
25%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ France
Italy →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 5 | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Recent form
Playing profile
France
Attack
63
Defence
73
Form
69
Italy
Attack
42
Defence
81
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
France
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 1
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #2 |
| → France | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Italy | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win France vs Italy?
The model gives France a 74% win probability, 11% for a draw, and 13% for an Italy win.
How many goals are expected in France vs Italy?
Expected goals: France 4.0, Italy 1.8 (total 5.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in France vs Italy?
4–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 6.12%.