World Cup
· Group Stage - 1
June 16, 2026 21:00
K. Mbappe
(ast. M. Olise)
66'
B. Barcola
(ast. A. Rabiot)
82'
K. Mbappe
90'+6
90'+5
(ast. I. Ndiaye)
I. Mbaye
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave France a 46% win probability (draw 27%, Senegal 25%). The final result was France 3–1 Senegal.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
2
1.89
Actual xG
0.50
2
Saves
5
54%
Possession
46%
6
Corners
4
18
Tackles
14
Match Events
⚽K. Mbappe
· ast. M. Olise
66'
75'
I. Mbaye
/
I. Sarr
76'
H. Diarra
/
L. Camara
O. Dembele
/ B. Barcola
80'
⚽B. Barcola
· ast. A. Rabiot
82'
83'
I. Ndiaye
/
P. Gueye
83'
B. Dieng
/
N. Jackson
D. Doue
/ R. Cherki
87'
88'
P. Ciss
/
I. Gueye
90'+5
ast. I. Ndiaye ·
I. Mbaye⚽
⚽K. Mbappe
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
46.94%
France ←
27.8%
X
25.25%
Senegal
we assigned to the actual result (France)
46.94%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.01
1.89
-0.12
1.09
0.50
-0.59
France dominated by xG (1.89 vs 0.50).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
16
M. Maignan
G
M. Maignan
G
19
T. Hernández
D
T. Hernández
D
17
William Saliba
D
William Saliba
D
4
D. Upamecano
D
D. Upamecano
D
5
J. Koundé
D
J. Koundé
D
14
A. Rabiot
1 👟
M
A. Rabiot
1 👟
M
8
A. Tchouaméni
M
A. Tchouaméni
M
20
D. Doué
87'
M
D. Doué
87'
M
7
O. Dembélé
80'
M
O. Dembélé
80'
M
11
M. Olise
1 👟
M
M. Olise
1 👟
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
2 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
2 ⚽
F
Bench
12
B. Barcola
1 ⚽
10'
F
B. Barcola
1 ⚽
10'
F
1
B. Samba
G
B. Samba
G
15
I. Konaté
D
I. Konaté
D
22
J. Mateta
F
J. Mateta
F
3
L. Digne
D
L. Digne
D
21
L. Hernández
D
L. Hernández
D
25
M. Akliouche
M
M. Akliouche
M
2
M. Gusto
D
M. Gusto
D
6
M. Koné
M
M. Koné
M
26
M. Lacroix
D
M. Lacroix
D
9
M. Thuram
F
M. Thuram
F
13
N'Golo Kanté
M
N'Golo Kanté
M
24
R. Cherki
13'
M
R. Cherki
13'
M
23
R. Risser
G
R. Risser
G
18
W. Zaïre-Emery
M
W. Zaïre-Emery
M
16
É. Mendy
G
É. Mendy
G
25
E. Diouf
D
E. Diouf
D
19
M. Niakhaté
D
M. Niakhaté
D
3
K. Koulibaly
D
K. Koulibaly
D
15
K. Diatta
D
K. Diatta
D
26
P. Gueye
83'
M
P. Gueye
83'
M
5
I. Gueye
88'
M
I. Gueye
88'
M
10
S. Mané
M
S. Mané
M
8
L. Camara
76'
M
L. Camara
76'
M
18
I. Sarr
75'
M
I. Sarr
75'
M
11
N. Jackson
83'
F
N. Jackson
83'
F
Bench
24
A. Mendy
D
A. Mendy
D
4
A. Seck
D
A. Seck
D
7
Assane Diao
F
Assane Diao
F
22
Bara Ndiaye
M
Bara Ndiaye
M
9
B. Dieng
17'
F
B. Dieng
17'
F
12
C. Ndiaye
F
C. Ndiaye
F
21
H. Diarra
14'
M
H. Diarra
14'
M
20
I. Mbaye
1 ⚽
15'
F
I. Mbaye
1 ⚽
15'
F
13
I. Ndiaye
1 👟
17'
F
I. Ndiaye
1 👟
17'
F
14
Ismail Jakobs
D
Ismail Jakobs
D
23
M. Diaw
G
M. Diaw
G
2
M. Sarr
D
M. Sarr
D
6
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
12'
M
17
P. Sarr
M
P. Sarr
M
1
Y. Diouf
G
Y. Diouf
G
Best on the pitch
Kylian Mbappé
F · France
8.20
2 ⚽
4 shots
· 16 pass
B. Barcola
F · France
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 7 pass
D. Upamecano
D · France
7.90
· 80 pass
M. Olise
M · France
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 57 pass
A. Rabiot
M · France
7.50
1 👟
· 50 pass
I. Mbaye
F · Senegal
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
France — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Maignan | G | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 28% | — | — | — |
| T. Hernández | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 48 | 45% | 2 | — | — |
| William Saliba | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 72 | 69% | — | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 80 | 70% | 6 | — | — |
| J. Koundé | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 59 | 51% | 4 | — | — |
| A. Rabiot | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 50 | 46% | — | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 62% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Doué | M | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 31% | — | — | — |
| O. Dembélé | M | 80 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 57 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.20 | 2 | — | 4 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| B. Barcola | F | 10 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| R. Cherki | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 5% | — | — | — |
Senegal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| É. Mendy | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 36 | 31% | — | — | — |
| E. Diouf | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 43 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Niakhaté | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 81 | 74% | — | — | — |
| K. Koulibaly | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 37% | 4 | — | — |
| K. Diatta | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 43% | 5 | — | — |
| P. Gueye | M | 83 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 48 | 41% | — | — | — |
| I. Gueye | M | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 61 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Mané | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| L. Camara | M | 76 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| I. Sarr | M | 75 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 83 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 17 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Dieng | F | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| H. Diarra | M | 14 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | — | — | — |
| I. Mbaye | F | 15 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Ndiaye | F | 17 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of France vs Senegal?
The final score was France 3–1 Senegal.
What did the model predict before France vs Senegal?
The model assigned 46% probability to a France win, 27% to a draw, and 25% to an Senegal win.