Conference League · Round of 16 March 19, 2026 18:45

FSV Mainz 05

#7 · 13 pts

2 – 0

Final score

Sigma Olomouc

#24 · 7 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 29% win probability (draw 41%, Sigma Olomouc 28%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Sigma Olomouc. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Sigma Olomouc.

Match statistics

6

Shots on target

1

1.44

Actual xG

0.48

54%

Possession

46%

5

Corners

1

Pre-match prediction

29.84%

FSV ←

41.54%

X

28.62%

Sigma

we assigned to the actual result (FSV Mainz 05) 29.84% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

FSV

0.32

1.44

+1.12

Sigma

0.63

0.48

-0.15

FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (1.44 vs 0.48). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Strasbourg	6	16
2	Raków Częstochowa	6	14
3	AEK Athens FC	6	13
4	Sparta Praha	6	13
5	Rayo Vallecano	6	13
6	Shakhtar Donetsk	6	13
7	FSV Mainz 05	6	13
8	AEK Larnaca	6	12
9	Lausanne	6	11
10	Crystal Palace	6	10
11	Lech Poznan	6	10
12	Samsunspor	6	10
13	Celje	6	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	10
15	Fiorentina	6	9
16	HNK Rijeka	6	9
17	Jagiellonia	6	9
18	Omonia Nicosia	6	8
19	FC Noah	6	8
20	Drita	6	8
21	KuPS	6	7
22	Shkendija	6	7
23	Zrinjski	6	7
24	Sigma Olomouc	6	7
25	Universitatea Craiova	6	7
26	Lincoln Red Imps FC	6	7
27	Dynamo Kyiv	6	6
28	Legia Warszawa	6	6
29	Slovan Bratislava	6	6
30	Breidablik	6	5
31	Shamrock Rovers	6	4
32	BK Hacken	6	3
33	Hamrun Spartans	6	3
34	Shelbourne	6	2
35	Aberdeen	6	2
36	Rapid Vienna	6	1