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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 10, 2026 19:30 Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
#7 · 10 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Union Berlin
#17 · 6 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction FSV Mainz 05, result Union Berlin wins
S. Becker (ast. P. Nebel) 48'
38' (ast. A. Kemlein) A. Ilic
88' (ast. A. Ilic) O. Burke
90'+1 (ast. T. Skarke) J. Juranovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Union Berlin 12%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Union Berlin.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
14
3
Shots on target
9
1.50
Actual xG
2.67
6
Saves
2
53%
Possession
47%
7
Corners
8
9
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
A. Caci
7'
↕ D. da Costa / K. Potulski
16'
38'
ast. A. Kemlein · A. Ilic⚽
⚽S. Becker · ast. P. Nebel
48'
57'
60'
Jeong Woo-Yeong / L. Burcu ↕
60'
D. Kohn / T. Rothe ↕
60'
A. Schafer / I. Ansah ↕
↕ A. Caci / N. Veratschnig
70'
↕ P. Nebel / Lee Jae-Sung
70'
Lee Jae-Sung
75'
80'
D. Kohn
↕ P. Tietz / N. Weiper
81'
↕ S. Becker / A. Sieb
81'
81'
J. Juranovic / C. Trimmel ↕
88'
ast. A. Ilic · O. Burke⚽
89'
T. Skarke / O. Burke ↕
90'+1
ast. T. Skarke · J. Juranovic⚽
Pre-match prediction
72.44%
FSV
15.2%
X
12.36%
Union ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Union Berlin) 12.36% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
2.77
1.50
-1.27
Union
0.84
2.67
+1.84
Union Berlin dominated by xG (2.67 vs 1.50). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
27 R. Zentner R. Zentner G 6.90
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr D 5.90
4 S. Posch S. Posch D 6.20
21 D. da Costa D. da Costa 16' D 6.70
2 P. Mwene P. Mwene M 7.00
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri M 7.20
6 K. Sano K. Sano M 6.90
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel 1 👟 70' M 6.60
19 A. Caci A. Caci 70' M 6.90
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 ⚽ 81' F 8.30
20 P. Tietz P. Tietz 81' F 6.90
Bench
11 A. Sieb A. Sieb 12' F 6.70
33 D. Batz D. Batz G
48 K. Potulski K. Potulski 77' D 5.30
7 Lee Jae-Sung Lee Jae-Sung 23' M 6.20
15 L. Maloney L. Maloney M
22 N. Veratschnig N. Veratschnig 23' D 6.20
44 N. Weiper N. Weiper 12' F 6.50
24 S. Kawasaki S. Kawasaki M
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer D
Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
25 C. Klaus C. Klaus G 6.60
15 T. Rothe T. Rothe 60' D 6.50
4 Diogo Leite Diogo Leite D 6.90
5 D. Doekhi D. Doekhi D 7.50
28 C. Trimmel C. Trimmel 81' D 8.90
6 A. Kemlein A. Kemlein 1 👟 M 7.30
8 R. Khedira R. Khedira M 6.20
9 Livan Burcu Livan Burcu 59' M 6.30
10 Ilyas Ansah Ilyas Ansah 60' M 7.00
7 O. Burke O. Burke 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.70
23 A. Ilić A. Ilić 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.20
Bench
33 A. Král A. Král M
13 A. Schäfer A. Schäfer 33' M 6.30
39 D. Köhn D. Köhn 33' D 6.70
11 Jeong Woo-Yeong Jeong Woo-Yeong 34' M 6.20
18 J. Juranović J. Juranović 1 ⚽ 12' D 7.30
14 L. Querfeld L. Querfeld D
34 Stanley Nsoki Stanley Nsoki D
48 Tom Wisbereit Tom Wisbereit G
21 T. Skarke T. Skarke 1 👟 5' M
Best on the pitch
C. Trimmel
C. Trimmel
D · Union
8.90
· 38 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 25 pass
O. Burke
O. Burke
M · Union
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 25 pass
D. Doekhi
D. Doekhi
D · Union
7.50
3 shots · 55 pass
J. Juranović
J. Juranović
D · Union
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 6 pass
A. Kemlein
A. Kemlein
M · Union
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 60 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Zentner G 93 6.90 — — — 29 24% — — —
D. Kohr D 93 5.90 — — — 58 47% — — —
S. Posch D 93 6.20 — — 2 51 43% — — —
D. da Costa D 16 6.70 — — — 3 2% — — —
P. Mwene M 93 7.00 — — — 35 32% 1 — —
N. Amiri M 93 7.20 — — — 46 38% — — —
K. Sano M 93 6.90 — — 2 42 35% 1 — —
P. Nebel M 70 6.60 — 1 1 37 32% 3 — —
A. Caci M 70 6.90 — — 1 41 36% 1 1 —
S. Becker F 81 8.30 1 — 2 25 20% — — —
P. Tietz F 81 6.90 — — — 21 16% — — —
A. Sieb F 12 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
K. Potulski D 77 5.30 — — 2 41 36% 1 — —
Lee Jae-Sung M 23 6.20 — — — 10 9% — 1 —
N. Veratschnig D 23 6.20 — — — 11 10% 2 — —
N. Weiper F 12 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Union Berlin Union Berlin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
C. Klaus G 93 6.60 — — — 25 16% — — —
T. Rothe D 60 6.50 — — 1 23 20% 1 — —
Diogo Leite D 93 6.90 — — — 53 45% 2 — —
D. Doekhi D 93 7.50 — — 3 55 49% 1 — —
C. Trimmel D 81 8.90 — — — 38 30% 3 — —
A. Kemlein M 93 7.30 — 1 1 60 51% 1 — —
R. Khedira M 93 6.20 — — — 33 28% 1 — —
Livan Burcu M 59 6.30 — — 1 19 16% — — —
Ilyas Ansah M 60 7.00 — — 1 13 10% 1 — —
O. Burke M 88 7.70 1 — 1 25 19% 2 — —
A. Ilić F 93 7.20 1 1 4 9 5% — — —
A. Schäfer M 33 6.30 — — 1 11 10% — — —
D. Köhn D 33 6.70 — — — 12 11% — 1 —
Jeong Woo-Yeong M 34 6.20 — — — 14 11% — — —
J. Juranović D 12 7.30 1 — 1 6 4% — — —
T. Skarke M 5 — — 1 — 2 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The model assigned 72% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 15% to a draw, and 12% to an Union Berlin win.