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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 10, 2026 19:30
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · 37 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Union Berlin
#12 · 36 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction FSV Mainz 05, result Union Berlin vince
S. Becker (ast. P. Nebel) 48'
38' (ast. A. Kemlein) A. Ilic
88' (ast. A. Ilic) O. Burke
90'+1 (ast. T. Skarke) J. Juranovic

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Union Berlin 12%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Union Berlin.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
14
3
Shots on target
9
1.50
Actual xG
2.67
6
Saves
2
53%
Possession
47%
7
Corners
8
9
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
A. Caci
7'
↕ D. da Costa / K. Potulski
16'
38'
ast. A. Kemlein · A. Ilic⚽
⚽S. Becker · ast. P. Nebel
48'
57'
60'
Jeong Woo-Yeong / L. Burcu ↕
60'
D. Kohn / T. Rothe ↕
60'
A. Schafer / I. Ansah ↕
↕ A. Caci / N. Veratschnig
70'
↕ P. Nebel / Lee Jae-Sung
70'
Lee Jae-Sung
75'
80'
D. Kohn
↕ P. Tietz / N. Weiper
81'
↕ S. Becker / A. Sieb
81'
81'
J. Juranovic / C. Trimmel ↕
88'
ast. A. Ilic · O. Burke⚽
89'
T. Skarke / O. Burke ↕
90'+1
ast. T. Skarke · J. Juranovic⚽
Pre-match prediction
72.44%
FSV
15.2%
X
12.36%
Union ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Union Berlin) 12.36% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
2.77
1.50
-1.27
Union
0.84
2.67
+1.84
Union Berlin dominated by xG (2.67 vs 1.50). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
27 Robin Zentner Robin Zentner G 6.90
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr D 5.90
4 Stefan Posch Stefan Posch D 6.20
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa 16' D 6.70
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene M 7.00
10 Nadiem Amiri Nadiem Amiri M 7.20
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano M 6.90
8 Paul Nebel Paul Nebel 1 👟 70' M 6.60
19 Anthony Caci Anthony Caci 70' M 6.90
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 ⚽ 81' F 8.30
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz 81' F 6.90
Bench
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 12' F 6.70
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G
7 Jae-sung Lee Jae-sung Lee 23' M 6.20
48 Kacper Potulski Kacper Potulski 77' D 5.30
15 Lennard Maloney Lennard Maloney M
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 12' F 6.50
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig 23' D 6.20
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki M
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer D
Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
25 Carl Klaus Carl Klaus G 6.60
15 Tom Alexander Rothe Tom Alexander Rothe 60' D 6.50
4 Diogo Leite Diogo Leite D 6.90
5 Danilho Doekhi Danilho Doekhi D 7.50
28 Christopher Trimmel Christopher Trimmel 81' D 8.90
6 Aljoscha Kemlein Aljoscha Kemlein 1 👟 M 7.30
8 Rani Khedira Rani Khedira M 6.20
9 Livan Burcu Livan Burcu 59' M 6.30
10 Ilyas Ansah Ilyas Ansah 60' M 7.00
7 Oliver Burke Oliver Burke 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.70
23 Andrej Ilić Andrej Ilić 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.20
Bench
33 Alex Král Alex Král M
13 András Schäfer András Schäfer 33' M 6.30
39 Derrick Köhn Derrick Köhn 33' D 6.70
18 Josip Juranović Josip Juranović 1 ⚽ 12' D 7.30
14 L. Querfeld L. Querfeld D
34 Stanley Nsoki Stanley Nsoki D
21 Tim Skarke Tim Skarke 1 👟 5' M
48 Tom Wisbereit Tom Wisbereit G
11 Woo-Yeong Jeong Woo-Yeong Jeong 34' M 6.20
Best on the pitch
Christopher Trimmel
Christopher Trimmel
D · Union
8.90
· 38 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 25 pass
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke
M · Union
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 25 pass
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi
D · Union
7.50
3 shots · 55 pass
Josip Juranović
Josip Juranović
D · Union
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 6 pass
Aljoscha Kemlein
Aljoscha Kemlein
M · Union
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 60 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Robin Zentner G 93 6.90 — — — 29 24% — — —
D. Kohr D 93 5.90 — — — 58 47% — — —
Stefan Posch D 93 6.20 — — 2 51 43% — — —
Danny da Costa D 16 6.70 — — — 3 2% — — —
Phillipp Mwene M 93 7.00 — — — 35 32% 1 — —
Nadiem Amiri M 93 7.20 — — — 46 38% — — —
Kaishu Sano M 93 6.90 — — 2 42 35% 1 — —
Paul Nebel M 70 6.60 — 1 1 37 32% 3 — —
Anthony Caci M 70 6.90 — — 1 41 36% 1 1 —
S. Becker F 81 8.30 1 — 2 25 20% — — —
Phillip Tietz F 81 6.90 — — — 21 16% — — —
Armindo Sieb F 12 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Jae-sung Lee M 23 6.20 — — — 10 9% — 1 —
Kacper Potulski D 77 5.30 — — 2 41 36% 1 — —
Nelson Weiper F 12 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Nikolas Veratschnig D 23 6.20 — — — 11 10% 2 — —
Union Berlin Union Berlin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Carl Klaus G 93 6.60 — — — 25 16% — — —
Tom Alexander Rothe D 60 6.50 — — 1 23 20% 1 — —
Diogo Leite D 93 6.90 — — — 53 45% 2 — —
Danilho Doekhi D 93 7.50 — — 3 55 49% 1 — —
Christopher Trimmel D 81 8.90 — — — 38 30% 3 — —
Aljoscha Kemlein M 93 7.30 — 1 1 60 51% 1 — —
Rani Khedira M 93 6.20 — — — 33 28% 1 — —
Livan Burcu M 59 6.30 — — 1 19 16% — — —
Ilyas Ansah M 60 7.00 — — 1 13 10% 1 — —
Oliver Burke M 88 7.70 1 — 1 25 19% 2 — —
Andrej Ilić F 93 7.20 1 1 4 9 5% — — —
András Schäfer M 33 6.30 — — 1 11 10% — — —
Derrick Köhn D 33 6.70 — — — 12 11% — 1 —
Josip Juranović D 12 7.30 1 — 1 6 4% — — —
Tim Skarke M 5 — — 1 — 2 2% — — —
Woo-Yeong Jeong M 34 6.20 — — — 14 11% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The model assigned 72% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 15% to a draw, and 12% to an Union Berlin win.