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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 10, 2026 19:30 Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · 0 pts
1 – 3
Final score
Union Berlin
#11 · 0 pts
✗Model wrong — prediction FSV Mainz 05, result Union Berlin wins
S. Becker (ast. P. Nebel) 48'
38' (ast. A. Kemlein) A. Ilic
88' (ast. A. Ilic) O. Burke
90'+1 (ast. T. Skarke) J. Juranovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 72% win probability (draw 15%, Union Berlin 12%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin. In 1 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Union Berlin.

Match statistics
10
Total shots
14
3
Shots on target
9
1.50
Actual xG
2.67
6
Saves
2
53%
Possession
47%
7
Corners
8
9
Tackles
12
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
A. Caci
7'
↕ D. da Costa / K. Potulski
16'
38'
ast. A. Kemlein · A. Ilic⚽
⚽S. Becker · ast. P. Nebel
48'
57'
60'
Jeong Woo-Yeong / L. Burcu ↕
60'
D. Kohn / T. Rothe ↕
60'
A. Schafer / I. Ansah ↕
↕ A. Caci / N. Veratschnig
70'
↕ P. Nebel / Lee Jae-Sung
70'
Lee Jae-Sung
75'
80'
D. Kohn
↕ P. Tietz / N. Weiper
81'
↕ S. Becker / A. Sieb
81'
81'
J. Juranovic / C. Trimmel ↕
88'
ast. A. Ilic · O. Burke⚽
89'
T. Skarke / O. Burke ↕
90'+1
ast. T. Skarke · J. Juranovic⚽
Pre-match prediction
72.44%
FSV
15.2%
X
12.36%
Union ←
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Union Berlin) 12.36% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
2.77
1.50
-1.27
Union
0.84
2.67
+1.84
Union Berlin dominated by xG (2.67 vs 1.50). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 0 0
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0 0
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0 0
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 0 0
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0 0
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 0 0
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 0 0
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0 0
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 0 0
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 0 0
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0 0
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 0 0
17 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 0 0
18 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 0 0
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
27 Robin Zentner Robin Zentner G 6.90
31 D. Kohr D. Kohr D 5.90
4 S. Posch S. Posch D 6.20
21 Danny da Costa Danny da Costa 16' D 6.70
2 Phillipp Mwene Phillipp Mwene M 7.00
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri M 7.20
6 Kaishu Sano Kaishu Sano M 6.90
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel 1 👟 70' M 6.60
19 Anthony Caci Anthony Caci 70' M 6.90
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 ⚽ 81' F 8.30
20 Phillip Tietz Phillip Tietz 81' F 6.90
Bench
11 Armindo Sieb Armindo Sieb 12' F 6.70
33 Daniel Batz Daniel Batz G
7 Jae-sung Lee Jae-sung Lee 23' M 6.20
48
Kacper Potulski 77' D 5.30
15 Lennard Maloney Lennard Maloney M
44 Nelson Weiper Nelson Weiper 12' F 6.50
22 Nikolas Veratschnig Nikolas Veratschnig 23' D 6.20
24 Sota Kawasaki Sota Kawasaki M
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer D
Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-2-3-1
25 Carl Klaus Carl Klaus G 6.60
15 Tom Alexander Rothe Tom Alexander Rothe 60' D 6.50
4 Diogo Leite Diogo Leite D 6.90
5 Danilho Doekhi Danilho Doekhi D 7.50
28 C. Trimmel C. Trimmel 81' D 8.90
6 Aljoscha Kemlein Aljoscha Kemlein 1 👟 M 7.30
8 R. Khedira R. Khedira M 6.20
9 Livan Burcu Livan Burcu 59' M 6.30
10 Ilyas Ansah Ilyas Ansah 60' M 7.00
7 Oliver Burke Oliver Burke 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.70
23 A. Ilić A. Ilić 1 ⚽ 1 👟 F 7.20
Bench
33 Alex Král Alex Král M
13 A. Schäfer A. Schäfer 33' M 6.30
39 D. Köhn D. Köhn 33' D 6.70
18 Josip Juranović Josip Juranović 1 ⚽ 12' D 7.30
14 L. Querfeld L. Querfeld D
34 Stanley Nsoki Stanley Nsoki D
21 Tim Skarke Tim Skarke 1 👟 5' M
48 Tom Wisbereit Tom Wisbereit G
11 Woo-Yeong Jeong Woo-Yeong Jeong 34' M 6.20
Best on the pitch
C. Trimmel
C. Trimmel
D · Union
8.90
· 38 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
8.30
1 ⚽
2 shots · 25 pass
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke
M · Union
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 25 pass
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi
D · Union
7.50
3 shots · 55 pass
Josip Juranović
Josip Juranović
D · Union
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 6 pass
Aljoscha Kemlein
Aljoscha Kemlein
M · Union
7.30
1 👟
1 shots · 60 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Robin Zentner G 93 6.90 — — — 29 24% — — —
D. Kohr D 93 5.90 — — — 58 47% — — —
S. Posch D 93 6.20 — — 2 51 43% — — —
Danny da Costa D 16 6.70 — — — 3 2% — — —
Phillipp Mwene M 93 7.00 — — — 35 32% 1 — —
N. Amiri M 93 7.20 — — — 46 38% — — —
Kaishu Sano M 93 6.90 — — 2 42 35% 1 — —
P. Nebel M 70 6.60 — 1 1 37 32% 3 — —
Anthony Caci M 70 6.90 — — 1 41 36% 1 1 —
S. Becker F 81 8.30 1 — 2 25 20% — — —
Phillip Tietz F 81 6.90 — — — 21 16% — — —
Armindo Sieb F 12 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Jae-sung Lee M 23 6.20 — — — 10 9% — 1 —
Kacper Potulski D 77 5.30 — — 2 41 36% 1 — —
Nelson Weiper F 12 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Nikolas Veratschnig D 23 6.20 — — — 11 10% 2 — —
Union Berlin Union Berlin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Carl Klaus G 93 6.60 — — — 25 16% — — —
Tom Alexander Rothe D 60 6.50 — — 1 23 20% 1 — —
Diogo Leite D 93 6.90 — — — 53 45% 2 — —
Danilho Doekhi D 93 7.50 — — 3 55 49% 1 — —
C. Trimmel D 81 8.90 — — — 38 30% 3 — —
Aljoscha Kemlein M 93 7.30 — 1 1 60 51% 1 — —
R. Khedira M 93 6.20 — — — 33 28% 1 — —
Livan Burcu M 59 6.30 — — 1 19 16% — — —
Ilyas Ansah M 60 7.00 — — 1 13 10% 1 — —
Oliver Burke M 88 7.70 1 — 1 25 19% 2 — —
A. Ilić F 93 7.20 1 1 4 9 5% — — —
A. Schäfer M 33 6.30 — — 1 11 10% — — —
D. Köhn D 33 6.70 — — — 12 11% — 1 —
Josip Juranović D 12 7.30 1 — 1 6 4% — — —
Tim Skarke M 5 — — 1 — 2 2% — — —
Woo-Yeong Jeong M 34 6.20 — — — 14 11% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
The model assigned 72% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 15% to a draw, and 12% to an Union Berlin win.