Skip to main content
← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 7 October 24, 2026 15:30 Mewa Arena, Mainz
FSV Mainz 05
#7 · 10 pts
2 – 3
Final score
Werder Bremen
#6 · 12 pts
Anthony Caci (ast. Sheraldo Becker) 33'
Lee Jae-Sung (ast. Anthony Caci) 63'
(pen.) 7' Niclas Füllkrug
(pen.) 25' Niclas Füllkrug
61' (ast. Marco Grüll) Ludovit Reis
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FSV Mainz 05 a 48% win probability (draw 26%, Werder Bremen 25%). The final result was FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen. In 2 previous meetings, FSV Mainz 05 have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Werder Bremen.

Match statistics
18
Total shots
17
8
Shots on target
8
1.73
Actual xG
2.58
6
Saves
6
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
7
17
Tackles
16
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
7'
(pen.) Niclas Füllkrug⚽
25'
(pen.) Niclas Füllkrug⚽
⚽Anthony Caci · ast. Sheraldo Becker
33'
38'
Ludovit Reis
45'
Mick Schmetgens / Olivier Deman ↕
59'
Oskar Wójcik / Mitchell Weiser ↕
61'
ast. Marco Grüll · Ludovit Reis⚽
⚽Lee Jae-Sung · ast. Anthony Caci
63'
Phillipp Mwene
69'
72'
Eren Dinkci / Iván San José Cantalejo ↕
↕ Lee Jae-Sung / Ransford Königsdörffer
75'
↕ Anthony Caci / Silvan Widmer
75'
81'
Cédric Itten / Niclas Füllkrug ↕
↕ Sheraldo Becker / Benedict Hollerbach
85'
↕ Danny da Costa / Paul Nebel
85'
Benedict Hollerbach
88'
89'
Marco Grüll
↕ Kaishu Sano / Eric Martel
90'+1
Alexander Schwolow
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
48.3%
FSV
26.54%
X
25.16%
Werder ←
we assigned to the actual result (Werder Bremen) 25.16% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FSV
2.75
1.73
-1.02
Werder
1.21
2.58
+1.37
Werder Bremen dominated by xG (2.58 vs 1.73). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3-5-2
1 A. Schwolow A. Schwolow G 6.78
48 K. Potulski K. Potulski D 6.87
4 S. Posch S. Posch D 6.46
21 D. da Costa D. da Costa 85' D 6.74
2 P. Mwene P. Mwene M 5.43
10 N. Amiri N. Amiri M 6.23
6 K. Sano K. Sano 89' M 6.81
7 Lee Jae-Sung Lee Jae-Sung 1 ⚽ 75' M 7.40
19 A. Caci A. Caci 1 ⚽ 1 👟 75' M 8.59
9 P. Tietz P. Tietz F 6.35
23 S. Becker S. Becker 1 👟 85' F 7.43
Bench
17 B. Hollerbach B. Hollerbach 5' F 6.17
5 E. Martel E. Martel 1' M 0.00
3 F. Gruber F. Gruber D 0.00
15 L. Maloney L. Maloney M 0.00
40 M. Kinzig M. Kinzig G 0.00
8 P. Nebel P. Nebel 5' M 5.88
11 R. Königsdörffer R. Königsdörffer 15' F 6.36
47 R. Nakuzola R. Nakuzola D 0.00
30 S. Widmer S. Widmer 15' D 5.95
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 4-2-3-1
1 K. Hein K. Hein G 7.56
2 O. Deman O. Deman 45' D 5.79
32 M. Friedl M. Friedl D 6.50
5 A. Pieper A. Pieper D 6.80
13 Arthur Arthur D 7.13
44 Y. Regeer Y. Regeer M 6.56
15 L. Reis L. Reis 1 ⚽ M 8.17
17 M. Grüll M. Grüll 1 👟 M 6.61
20 Chuky San José Chuky San José 72' M 6.35
8 M. Weiser M. Weiser 59' M 6.91
10 N. Füllkrug N. Füllkrug 2 ⚽ 81' F 7.30
Bench
30 A. Schlager A. Schlager G 0.00
26 C. Itten C. Itten 9' F 6.70
23 Dariusz Stalmach Dariusz Stalmach M 0.00
18 E. Dinkçi E. Dinkçi 18' F 6.69
19 K. Quetant K. Quetant F 0.00
33 Mick Schmetgens Mick Schmetgens 45' D 6.48
3 O. Wójcik O. Wójcik 31' D 6.24
38 P. Erevbenagie P. Erevbenagie F 0.00
14 S. Lynen S. Lynen M 0.00
Best on the pitch
A. Caci
A. Caci
M · FSV
8.59
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots · 50 pass
L. Reis
L. Reis
M · Werder
8.17
1 ⚽
2 shots · 59 pass
K. Hein
K. Hein
G · Werder
7.56
· 31 pass
S. Becker
S. Becker
F · FSV
7.43
1 👟
2 shots · 31 pass
Lee Jae-Sung
Lee Jae-Sung
M · FSV
7.40
1 ⚽
3 shots · 36 pass
N. Füllkrug
N. Füllkrug
F · Werder
7.30
2 ⚽
4 shots · 39 pass
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Schwolow G 90 6.78 — — 0 14 11% 0 1 —
K. Potulski D 90 6.87 — — 2 71 67% 0 — —
S. Posch D 90 6.46 — — 0 98 88% 0 — —
D. da Costa D 85 6.74 — — 1 60 52% 5 — —
P. Mwene M 90 5.43 — — 2 40 32% 2 1 —
N. Amiri M 90 6.23 — — 2 65 53% 0 — —
K. Sano M 89 6.81 — — 0 59 56% 0 — —
Lee Jae-Sung M 75 7.40 1 — 3 36 30% 5 — —
A. Caci M 75 8.59 1 1 1 50 42% 2 — —
P. Tietz F 90 6.35 — — 5 8 3% 0 — —
S. Becker F 85 7.43 — 1 2 31 26% 1 — —
B. Hollerbach F 5 6.17 — — 0 4 4% 0 1 —
E. Martel M 1 0.00 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
P. Nebel M 5 5.88 — — 0 6 5% 1 — —
R. Königsdörffer F 15 6.36 — — 0 5 5% 0 — —
S. Widmer D 15 5.95 — — 0 11 11% 1 — —
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
K. Hein G 90 7.56 — — 0 31 22% 0 — —
O. Deman D 45 5.79 — — 0 34 28% 1 — —
M. Friedl D 90 6.50 — — 1 70 63% 1 — —
A. Pieper D 90 6.80 — — 0 63 58% 1 — —
Arthur D 90 7.13 — — 1 45 40% 1 — —
Y. Regeer M 90 6.56 — — 0 59 56% 3 — —
L. Reis M 90 8.17 1 — 2 59 56% 2 1 —
M. Grüll M 90 6.61 — 1 1 37 30% 1 1 —
Chuky San José M 72 6.35 — — 2 19 13% 0 — —
M. Weiser M 59 6.91 — — 2 24 21% 0 — —
N. Füllkrug F 81 7.30 2 — 4 39 30% 1 — —
C. Itten F 9 6.70 — — 1 6 3% 0 — —
E. Dinkçi F 18 6.69 — — 2 7 4% 1 — —
Mick Schmetgens D 45 6.48 — — 0 13 9% 4 — —
O. Wójcik D 31 6.24 — — 1 4 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
The final score was FSV Mainz 05 2–3 Werder Bremen.
What did the model predict before FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
The model assigned 48% probability to a FSV Mainz 05 win, 26% to a draw, and 25% to an Werder Bremen win.