Skip to main content
← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Gabon - Lesotho

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 11, 2026 18:00
Gabon
#2 · 3 pts
vs
Lesotho
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
51.92%
Win
Gabon
29.58%
Draw
18.5%
Win
Lesotho
1.29
Expected xG
0.44

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (18.1%)
1X2 Result
1 52%
X 30%
2 19%
Double Chance
1X 82%
X2 48%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 80%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 57%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Gabon a 51% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 18% for Lesotho. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gabon and 0.4 for Lesotho (total 1.7), with a 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 18.1% probability.

Season Stats

Gabon
1W 0D 1L
Lesotho
1W 1D 2L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.8
1.0
Conceded
1.2
4.0
Shots OT
2.5
2.5
Corners
5.0
48%
Poss.
35%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
75%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
Gabon
1W 0D 0L · at home
Lesotho
0W 1D 1L · away
2.0
gls/g
0.5
0.0
Conceded
1.0
100%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
50%
100%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Gabon Lesotho →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 17.7% 7.8% 1.7% 0.3% — —
1 22.8% 10.1% 2.2% 0.3% — —
2 14.7% 6.5% 1.4% 0.2% — —
3 6.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% — —
4 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% — — —
5 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Gabon Gabon
W Niger 2–0
L Morocco 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Lesotho Lesotho
L Morocco 0–2
L Niger 2–1
W Seychelles 2–1
D Seychelles 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Gabon Gabon
Attack
34
Defence
62
Form
34
Lesotho Lesotho
Attack
18
Defence
53
Form
5
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Morocco Morocco 2 6
2 Gabon Gabon 2 3
3 Niger Niger 2 3
4 Lesotho Lesotho 2 0

What's at stake · Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Gabon Lesotho
Current #2 #4
→ Gabon #2 #4
→ Draw #2 #4
→ Lesotho #2 #4

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Gabon vs Lesotho?
The model gives Gabon a 51% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 18% for an Lesotho win.
How many goals are expected in Gabon vs Lesotho?
Expected goals: Gabon 1.3, Lesotho 0.4 (total 1.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 80%.
What is the most likely score in Gabon vs Lesotho?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 18.1%.