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AFC Champions League · League Phase - 3 October 28, 2026 11:00 Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
Gamba Osaka
#3 · 7 pts
1 – 1
Final score
Buriram United
#12 · 2 pts
Takashi Usami 66'
39' (ast. Nathan Pelae) Eduardo Mancha
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Gamba Osaka a 40% win probability (draw 29%, Buriram United 30%). The final result was Gamba Osaka 1–1 Buriram United.

Match statistics
24
Total shots
9
7
Shots on target
2
3.84
Actual xG
0.68
1
Saves
6
68%
Possession
32%
11
Corners
2
15
Tackles
14
Match Events
39'
ast. Nathan Pelae · Eduardo Mancha⚽
45'+4
Paulinho / Nathan Pelae ↕
49'
↕ Ryotaro Meshino / Takashi Usami
57'
↕ Yusei Toshida / Issam Jebali
57'
↕ Juanpe Jiménez / Rin Mito
57'
⚽Takashi Usami
66'
71'
Phitiwat Sookjitthammakul / Goran Čaušić ↕
↕ Eli Adams / Ryoya Yamashita
73'
82'
Theerathon Bunmathan / Toni Moya ↕
82'
Sebas Moyano / Darlan Pereira Mendes ↕
87'
Pre-match prediction
40.09%
Gamba
29.27%
X ←
30.64%
Buriram
we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 29.27% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Gamba
1.12
3.84
+2.72
Buriram
1.00
0.68
-0.32
Gamba Osaka dominated by xG (3.84 vs 0.68). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Kashima Kashima 3 9
2 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 3 9
3 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 3 7
4 Johor Darul Takzim FC Johor Darul Takzim FC 3 7
5 Beijing Guoan Beijing Guoan 3 7
6 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 3 6
7 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 3 4
8 SHANGHAI SIPG SHANGHAI SIPG 3 4
9 Daejeon Citizen Daejeon Citizen 3 4
10 Jeonbuk Motors Jeonbuk Motors 3 4
11 Công An Nhân Dân Công An Nhân Dân 3 3
12 Buriram United Buriram United 3 2
13 Ratchaburi Ratchaburi 3 1
14 Pohang Steelers Pohang Steelers 3 0
15 Port FC Port FC 3 0
16 Newcastle Jets Newcastle Jets 3 0
Lineups
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 4-2-3-1
22 J. Ichimori J. Ichimori G 6.48
21 R. Hatsuse R. Hatsuse D 8.00
67 S. Sasaki S. Sasaki D 6.79
4 S. Nakatani S. Nakatani D 6.92
28 S. Fujiwara S. Fujiwara D 6.96
78 Juanpe Juanpe 57' M 7.20
13 S. Abe S. Abe M 7.02
97 Welton Felipe Welton Felipe M 6.52
8 R. Meshino R. Meshino 57' M 5.99
20 E. Adams E. Adams 73' M 6.57
41 Y. Toshida Y. Toshida 57' F 6.12
Bench
19 Ginjiro Ikegaya Ginjiro Ikegaya D 0.00
11 I. Jebali I. Jebali 33' F 6.43
39 K. Sumi K. Sumi M 0.00
1 M. Higashiguchi M. Higashiguchi G 0.00
27 R. Mito R. Mito 33' M 6.74
17 R. Yamashita R. Yamashita 17' F 6.40
2 S. Fukuoka S. Fukuoka D 0.00
10 S. Kurata S. Kurata M 0.00
47 S. Nakano S. Nakano D 0.00
15 T. Kishimoto T. Kishimoto D 0.00
16 T. Suzuki T. Suzuki M 0.00
7 T. Usami T. Usami 1 ⚽ 33' F 8.19
Buriram United Buriram United 5-4-1
13 N. Etheridge N. Etheridge G 7.15
31 Caju Caju D 6.66
40 Eduardo Mancha Eduardo Mancha 1 ⚽ D 6.94
6 C. Good C. Good D 6.28
5 Nathan Nathan 1 👟 44' D 7.04
19 K. Schindler K. Schindler D 6.18
37 Darlan Darlan 82' M 6.41
20 Toni Moya Toni Moya 82' M 6.63
16 K. Dougall K. Dougall M 6.39
23 G. Čaušić G. Čaušić 71' M 6.01
7 Bissoli Bissoli F 6.14
Bench
99 A. Tudorie A. Tudorie F 0.00
34 C. Bootprom C. Bootprom G 0.00
17 Lucas Ahijado Lucas Ahijado D 0.00
27 P. Sookjitthammakul P. Sookjitthammakul 19' M 6.21
10 Sebas Moyano Sebas Moyano 8' F 6.50
2 S. Haiprakhon S. Haiprakhon D 0.00
30 S. Schimmer S. Schimmer F 0.00
55 T. Bunmathan T. Bunmathan 8' D 6.29
Best on the pitch
T. Usami
T. Usami
F · Gamba
8.19
1 ⚽
1 shots · 43 pass
R. Hatsuse
R. Hatsuse
D · Gamba
8.00
· 86 pass
Juanpe
Juanpe
M · Gamba
7.20
3 shots · 75 pass
N. Etheridge
N. Etheridge
G · Buriram
7.15
· 26 pass
Nathan
Nathan
D · Buriram
7.04
1 👟
1 shots · 16 pass
S. Abe
S. Abe
M · Gamba
7.02
1 shots · 100 pass
Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Ichimori G 90 6.48 — — 0 19 19% 0 — —
R. Hatsuse D 90 8.00 — — 0 86 81% 0 — —
S. Sasaki D 90 6.79 — — 1 83 80% 1 — —
S. Nakatani D 90 6.92 — — 1 84 77% 0 — —
S. Fujiwara D 90 6.96 — — 2 68 59% 2 — —
Juanpe M 57 7.20 — — 3 75 64% 3 — —
S. Abe M 90 7.02 — — 1 100 93% 9 — —
Welton Felipe M 90 6.52 — — 4 32 26% 0 — —
R. Meshino M 57 5.99 — — 2 28 23% 0 — —
E. Adams M 73 6.57 — — 1 20 16% 0 — —
Y. Toshida F 57 6.12 — — 5 4 2% 0 — —
I. Jebali F 33 6.43 — — 1 10 4% 0 — —
R. Mito M 33 6.74 — — 2 17 16% 0 — —
R. Yamashita F 17 6.40 — — 0 21 16% 0 — —
T. Usami F 33 8.19 1 — 1 43 38% 0 — —
Buriram United Buriram United — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Etheridge G 90 7.15 — — 0 26 11% 0 — —
Caju D 90 6.66 — — 2 25 18% 2 — —
Eduardo Mancha D 90 6.94 1 — 1 22 15% 2 — —
C. Good D 90 6.28 — — 0 18 16% 0 — —
Nathan D 44 7.04 — 1 1 16 15% 2 — —
K. Schindler D 90 6.18 — — 0 23 16% 2 — —
Darlan M 82 6.41 — — 1 32 21% 1 — —
Toni Moya M 82 6.63 — — 1 47 38% 3 — —
K. Dougall M 90 6.39 — — 0 27 20% 0 — —
G. Čaušić M 71 6.01 — — 0 36 31% 1 — —
Bissoli F 90 6.14 — — 3 22 19% 1 — —
P. Sookjitthammakul M 19 6.21 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
Sebas Moyano F 8 6.50 — — 0 0 0% 0 — —
T. Bunmathan D 8 6.29 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United?
The final score was Gamba Osaka 1–1 Buriram United.
What did the model predict before Gamba Osaka vs Buriram United?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Gamba Osaka win, 29% to a draw, and 30% to an Buriram United win.