Gambia - Somalia
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
September 25, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
30.97%
Win
Gambia
31.4%
Draw
37.63%
Win
Somalia
1.15
1.77
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(13.07%)
1X2 Result
1
31%
X
31%
2
38%
Double Chance
1X
62%
X2
69%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Somalia a 37% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 30% for Gambia. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gambia and 1.8 for Somalia (total 2.9), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 13.07% probability.
Score Matrix
↕ Gambia
Somalia →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — |
Playing profile
Gambia
Attack
25
Defence
25
Form
26
Somalia
Attack
0
Defence
100
Form
47
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Gambia vs Somalia?
The model gives Gambia a 30% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 37% for an Somalia win.
How many goals are expected in Gambia vs Somalia?
Expected goals: Gambia 1.2, Somalia 1.8 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Gambia vs Somalia?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.07%.