Gela - CastrumFavara
Serie D - Girone I
September 13, 2026 17:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.28%
Win
Gela
32.18%
Draw
35.55%
Win
CastrumFavara
1.01
2.53
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(12.16%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
32%
2
36%
Double Chance
1X
65%
X2
68%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives CastrumFavara a 35% win probability, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Gela. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gela and 2.5 for CastrumFavara (total 3.5), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.16% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Gela have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for CastrumFavara.
Season Stats
3W
4D
8L
7W
3D
5L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
1.7
1.7
Conceded
1.3
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
87%
47%
O 2.5
67%
60%
BTTS
67%
13%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Serie D - Girone I. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
5W
3D
2L
· at home
3W
0D
7L
· away
1.5
gls/g
1.2
0.9
Conceded
1.9
50%
Win %
30%
80%
Win or Draw
30%
80%
O 1.5
90%
40%
O 2.5
70%
20%
O 3.5
30%
60%
BTTS
50%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
20%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Gela
CastrumFavara →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| 2 | 1.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 5 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — |
Playing profile
Gela
Attack
12
Defence
34
Form
19
CastrumFavara
Attack
30
Defence
43
Form
35
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Vibonese
|
2 | 4 |
| 2 |
Reggina
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Digiesse PraiaTortora
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
CastrumFavara
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Igea Virtus
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
Nissa
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sambiase
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Ragusa
|
1 | 1 |
| 9 |
Modica
|
1 | 1 |
| 10 |
AC Palermo
|
1 | 0 |
| 11 |
Calcio Avola
|
1 | 0 |
| 12 |
Vigor Lamezia
|
1 | 0 |
| 13 |
Milazzo
|
1 | 0 |
| 14 |
Licata
|
1 | 0 |
| 15 |
Enna
|
1 | 0 |
| 16 |
Gela
|
1 | 0 |
| 17 |
Siracusa
|
2 | 0 |
| 18 |
Trapani 1905
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Gela vs CastrumFavara?
The model gives Gela a 32% win probability, 32% for a draw, and 35% for an CastrumFavara win.
How many goals are expected in Gela vs CastrumFavara?
Expected goals: Gela 1.0, CastrumFavara 2.5 (total 3.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Gela vs CastrumFavara?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.16%.