✗Model wrong — prediction Genk, result Draw
M. Nzita
86'
(og)
13'
(ast. A. Colassin)
E. Camara
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Genk a 58% win probability (draw 25%, Charleroi 16%). The final result was Genk 1–1 Charleroi. In 3 previous meetings, Genk have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Charleroi.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
9
7
Shots on target
5
2.76
Actual xG
1.50
4
Saves
6
61%
Possession
39%
10
Corners
1
20
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
13'
ast. A. Colassin ·
E. Camara⚽
36'
Cheick Keita
Y. Medina
/ J. Kayembe
63'
A. Bibout
/ R. Mirisola
63'
N. Adedeji-Sternberg
/ A. Yokoyama
63'
63'
A. Scheidler
/
A. Colassin
63'
J. Romsaas
/
P. Pflucke
66'
Y. Khalifi
/
A. Boukamir
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura
72'
81'
F. Szymczak
/
A. Bernier
81'
M. Boukamir
/
L. Blum
J. Ito
/ J. Erabi
83'
I. Bangoura
/ J. Steuckers
83'
⚽M. Nzita
(og)
86'
Pre-match prediction
58.34%
Genk
25.08%
X ←
16.58%
Charleroi
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
25.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.68
2.76
+1.08
0.68
1.50
+0.82
Genk dominated by xG (2.76 vs 1.50).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
28
G
19
Yaimar Medina
63'
D
Yaimar Medina
63'
D
6
Matte Smets
D
Matte Smets
D
3
Mujaid Sadick
D
77
Z. El Ouahdi
D
Z. El Ouahdi
D
21
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura
83'
M
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura
83'
M
8
Bryan Heynen
M
Bryan Heynen
M
32
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
63'
M
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
63'
M
38
D. Heymans
M
D. Heymans
M
10
J. Ito
83'
M
J. Ito
83'
M
23
A. Bibout
63'
F
A. Bibout
63'
F
Bench
44
Josue Ndenge Kongolo
D
Josue Ndenge Kongolo
D
7
J. Steuckers
14'
F
J. Steuckers
14'
F
29
Robin Mirisola
27'
F
Robin Mirisola
27'
F
14
Yira Collins Sor
F
Yira Collins Sor
F
30
G
24
Mardochee Nzita
1 ⚽
D
Mardochee Nzita
1 ⚽
D
95
Cheick Keita
D
Cheick Keita
D
4
A. Ousou
D
A. Ousou
D
27
L. Blum
81'
D
L. Blum
81'
D
56
Amine Boukamir
66'
M
Amine Boukamir
66'
M
5
E. Camara
1 ⚽
M
E. Camara
1 ⚽
M
17
A. Bernier
81'
M
A. Bernier
81'
M
14
P. Pflücke
63'
M
P. Pflücke
63'
M
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
M
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
M
25
Antoine Colassin
1 👟
63'
F
Antoine Colassin
1 👟
63'
F
Bench
21
Aurélien Scheidler
27'
F
Aurélien Scheidler
27'
F
8
J. Romsaas
27'
M
J. Romsaas
27'
M
55
M. Delavallee
40
Yassine Khalifi
24'
M
Yassine Khalifi
24'
M
Best on the pitch
G · Charleroi
8.50
· 41 pass
E. Camara
M · Charleroi
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
Z. El Ouahdi
D · Genk
7.30
2 shots
· 52 pass
Ibrahima Sory Bangoura
M · Genk
7.30
· 30 pass
Noah Adedeji-Sternberg
M · Genk
7.30
3 shots
· 29 pass
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
M · Charleroi
7.20
2 shots
· 17 pass
Genk — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| Yaimar Medina | D | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| Matte Smets | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 93 | 84% | 1 | — | — |
| Mujaid Sadick | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 55% | 4 | — | — |
| Z. El Ouahdi | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 52 | 45% | 1 | — | — |
| Ibrahima Sory Bangoura | M | 83 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Bryan Heynen | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 56 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| Noah Adedeji-Sternberg | M | 63 | 7.30 | — | — | 3 | 29 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Heymans | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 5 | 34 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ito | M | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 29 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Bibout | F | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| J. Steuckers | F | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Robin Mirisola | F | 27 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
Charleroi — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 41 | 24% | — | — | — | |
| Mardochee Nzita | D | 90 | 6.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 36 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Cheick Keita | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Ousou | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 25% | — | — | — |
| L. Blum | D | 81 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Amine Boukamir | M | 66 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Camara | M | 90 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Bernier | M | 81 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| P. Pflücke | M | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Van Den Kerkhof | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 17 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Antoine Colassin | F | 63 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Aurélien Scheidler | F | 27 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| J. Romsaas | M | 27 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Yassine Khalifi | M | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Genk vs Charleroi?
The final score was Genk 1–1 Charleroi.
What did the model predict before Genk vs Charleroi?
The model assigned 58% probability to a Genk win, 25% to a draw, and 16% to an Charleroi win.