Conference League
· League Stage - 1
October 15, 2026 18:45
✓Model correct — prediction Gent
H. Goore
(ast. T. Araujo)
87'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Gent a 50% win probability (draw 30%, Aarhus 19%). The final result was Gent 1–0 Aarhus.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
3
4
Shots on target
1
2.05
Actual xG
0.23
0
Saves
3
52%
Possession
48%
11
Corners
2
11
Tackles
15
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
21'
F. Emmery
/
M. Anderson
46'
T. Molgaard
/
D. L. Gretarsson
S. Van Der Heyden
/ M. Diallo
46'
58'
J. Bogere
62'
M. Knudsen
/
K. Arnstad
M. Volckaert
/ H. Goore
66'
M. Delorge
73'
76'
M. Solbakken
77'
F. Tingager
/
E. Kahl
77'
J. Jonsson
/
M. Solbakken
M. Delorge
/ L. Lopes
77'
T. De Vlieger
86'
⚽H. Goore
· ast. T. Araujo
87'
Pre-match prediction
50.28%
Gent ←
30.46%
X
19.27%
Aarhus
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Gent)
50.28%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.27
2.05
+0.78
0.72
0.23
-0.49
Gent dominated by xG (2.05 vs 0.23).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
33
Davy Roef
87'
G
Davy Roef
87'
G
44
S. Van der Heyden
45'
D
S. Van der Heyden
45'
D
16
Christian Burgess
87'
D
Christian Burgess
87'
D
3
Maksim Paskotsi
87'
D
Maksim Paskotsi
87'
D
27
Tibe De Vlieger
87'
M
Tibe De Vlieger
87'
M
20
Tiago Araújo
1 👟
87'
M
Tiago Araújo
1 👟
87'
M
17
Mathias Delorge
77'
M
Mathias Delorge
77'
M
57
Matties Volckaert
66'
M
Matties Volckaert
66'
M
7
Michel Ange Balikwisha
87'
M
Michel Ange Balikwisha
87'
M
11
M. Sonko
87'
F
M. Sonko
87'
F
75
Ibrahima Cisse
87'
F
Ibrahima Cisse
87'
F
Bench
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
M
Abdelkahar Kadri
M
39
Abdul Ayinde
D
Abdul Ayinde
D
10
Aimé Omgba
M
Aimé Omgba
M
59
El Hadji Seck
F
El Hadji Seck
F
45
Hyllarion Goore
1 ⚽
21'
F
Hyllarion Goore
1 ⚽
21'
F
30
Kjell Peersman
G
Kjell Peersman
G
14
Kyrell Wilson
F
Kyrell Wilson
F
8
László Bénes
M
László Bénes
M
22
Leonardo Lopes
10'
M
Leonardo Lopes
10'
M
56
Mamadou Diallo
42'
D
Mamadou Diallo
42'
D
18
Matisse Samoise
M
Matisse Samoise
M
28
Mohammed El Âdfaoui
M
Mohammed El Âdfaoui
M
21
M. Hedenstad Christiansen
87'
G
M. Hedenstad Christiansen
87'
G
19
E. Kahl
77'
D
E. Kahl
77'
D
3
D. Grétarsson
45'
D
D. Grétarsson
45'
D
25
C. Rösler
87'
D
C. Rösler
87'
D
23
Mikael Anderson
21'
M
Mikael Anderson
21'
M
10
Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad
62'
M
Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad
62'
M
7
M. Solbakken
77'
M
M. Solbakken
77'
M
18
C. McCowatt
87'
M
C. McCowatt
87'
M
26
J. Andersen
87'
M
J. Andersen
87'
M
28
J. Bogere
87'
F
J. Bogere
87'
F
27
S. Tchamche
87'
F
S. Tchamche
87'
F
Bench
39
Frederik Emmery
66'
F
Frederik Emmery
66'
F
5
F. Tingager
10'
D
F. Tingager
10'
D
13
Janni Serra
F
Janni Serra
F
1
J. Hansen
G
J. Hansen
G
16
J. Jønsson
10'
M
J. Jønsson
10'
M
33
Luka Callø
D
Luka Callø
D
42
Marius van der Raad
G
Marius van der Raad
G
4
M. Knudsen
25'
M
M. Knudsen
25'
M
29
R. Carstensen
D
R. Carstensen
D
8
S. Jørgensen
M
S. Jørgensen
M
31
T. Bech
F
T. Bech
F
14
T. Mølgaard
42'
D
T. Mølgaard
42'
D
Best on the pitch
Tiago Araújo
M · Gent
8.90
1 👟
1 shots
· 55 pass
M. Hedenstad Christiansen
G · Aarhus
8.50
· 41 pass
Mathias Delorge
M · Gent
8.30
1 shots
· 56 pass
Michel Ange Balikwisha
M · Gent
7.70
2 shots
· 36 pass
Tibe De Vlieger
M · Gent
7.50
2 shots
· 53 pass
Christian Burgess
D · Gent
7.30
2 shots
· 58 pass
Gent — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davy Roef | G | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 22 | 19% | — | — | — |
| S. Van der Heyden | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Christian Burgess | D | 87 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 58 | 50% | 1 | — | — |
| Maksim Paskotsi | D | 87 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 79 | 67% | — | — | — |
| Tibe De Vlieger | M | 87 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 53 | 51% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tiago Araújo | M | 87 | 8.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 55 | 48% | — | — | — |
| Mathias Delorge | M | 77 | 8.30 | — | — | 1 | 56 | 53% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matties Volckaert | M | 66 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 19 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Michel Ange Balikwisha | M | 87 | 7.70 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Sonko | F | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 31 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Ibrahima Cisse | F | 87 | 5.90 | — | — | 4 | 7 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Hyllarion Goore | F | 21 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Lopes | M | 10 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Diallo | D | 42 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
Aarhus — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hedenstad Christiansen | G | 87 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 41 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Kahl | D | 77 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 51 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Grétarsson | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 38 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Rösler | D | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 81 | 75% | — | — | — |
| Mikael Anderson | M | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Kristian Fredrik Malt Arnstad | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Solbakken | M | 77 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. McCowatt | M | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Andersen | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bogere | F | 87 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Tchamche | F | 87 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Frederik Emmery | F | 66 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Tingager | D | 10 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Jønsson | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | — | — | — |
| M. Knudsen | M | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Mølgaard | D | 42 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 35% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Gent vs Aarhus?
The final score was Gent 1–0 Aarhus.
What did the model predict before Gent vs Aarhus?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Gent win, 30% to a draw, and 19% to an Aarhus win.