Germany 1–1 Paraguay — pre-match prediction — World Cup — June 29, 2026

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World Cup · Round of 32 June 29, 2026 22:30 Gillette Stadium, Boston

Germany

#1 · 6 pts

1 – 1

Final score

pens 3–4

Paraguay

#3 · 4 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction Germany, result Draw

K. Havertz (ast. F. Wirtz) 54'

J. Kimmich 120'+2 (pen.)

J. Musiala 120'+3 (pen.)

N. Amiri 120'+5 (pen.)

42' (ast. M. Galarza) J. Enciso

(pen.) 120'+1 Mauricio

(pen.) 120'+2 G. Gomez

(pen.) 120'+3 M. Galarza

(pen.) 120'+6 J. Canale

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Germany a 77% win probability (draw 14%, Paraguay 8%). The final result was Germany 1–1 Paraguay.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.49

Actual xG

0.42

Saves

75%

Possession

25%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

42'

ast. M. Galarza · J. Enciso⚽

↕ F. Nmecha / L. Goretzka

46'

⚽K. Havertz · ast. F. Wirtz

54'

55'

G. Caballero / G. Avalos ↕

57'

Mauricio / J. Enciso ↕

↕ D. Undav / J. Musiala

63'

65'

A. Cubas

↕ A. Pavlovic / W. Anton

79'

↕ L. Sane / N. Woltemade

88'

91'

G. Velazquez / M. Almiron ↕

99'

B. Ojeda / J. Caceres ↕

99'

A. Sanabria / D. Bobadilla ↕

102'

J. Nagelsmann

105'+1

105'

G. Alfaro

K. Havertz

106'

↕ F. Wirtz / N. Amiri

110'

↕ A. Rudiger / M. Thiaw

110'

J. Musiala

115'

117'

M. Galarza

⚽K. Havertz (missed pen.)

120'+1

(pen.) Mauricio⚽

120'+2

(pen.) G. Gomez⚽

⚽J. Kimmich (pen.)

120'+2

Fabian Balbuena / J. Alonso ↕

⚽J. Musiala (pen.)

120'+3

(pen.) M. Galarza⚽

⚽N. Woltemade (missed pen.)

120'+4

(missed pen.) A. Sanabria⚽

⚽N. Amiri (pen.)

120'+5

(missed pen.) Fabian Balbuena⚽

⚽J. Tah (missed pen.)

120'+6

(pen.) J. Canale⚽

Pre-match prediction

77.43%

Germany

14.39%

X ←

8.18%

Paraguay

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 14.39% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Germany

3.12

1.49

-1.63

Paraguay

0.77

0.42

-0.35

Germany dominated by xG (1.49 vs 0.42). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

Lineups

Germany 4-4-2

M. Neuer G 6.90

N. Brown D 7.00

A. Rüdiger D 7.30

J. Tah D 7.30

J. Kimmich 1 ⚽ D 7.30

F. Wirtz 1 👟 M 8.30

A. Pavlović 79' M 6.50

F. Nmecha 45' M 6.50

L. Sané 88' M 6.30

D. Undav 63' F 6.30

K. Havertz 1 ⚽ F 7.50

Bench

A. Nübel G

Assan Ouédraogo M

A. Stiller M

D. Raum D

J. Leweling F

J. Musiala 1 ⚽ 57' M 6.60

Leon Goretzka 75' M 6.50

M. Beier F

M. Thiaw 10' D 6.70

N. Amiri 1 ⚽ 10' M 6.70

N. Woltemade 32' F 6.90

O. Baumann G

P. Groß M

W. Anton 41' D 6.60

Paraguay 4-4-2

O. Gill G 8.20

J. Alonso D 6.30

J. Canale 1 ⚽ D 7.50

G. Gómez 1 ⚽ D 6.50

J. Cáceres D 6.90

M. Galarza 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 6.90

A. Cubas M 6.60

Damián Bobadilla M 7.00

M. Almirón M 7.20

J. Enciso 1 ⚽ 57' F 7.60

G. Ávalos 55' F 6.70

Bench

A. Arce F

Alejandro Romero M

A. Maidana D

A. Sanabria 21' F 6.90

Braian Ojeda 21' M 6.30

F. Balbuena 1' D

Gastón Olveira G

G. Caballero 65' F 6.60

Gustavo Velázquez 30' D 6.60

I. Pitta F

Maurício 1 ⚽ 63' M 7.20

O. Alderete D

Roberto Fernández G

R. Sosa F

Best on the pitch

F. Wirtz

M · Germany

8.30

1 👟

1 shots · 80 pass

O. Gill

G · Paraguay

8.20

· 45 pass

J. Enciso

F · Paraguay

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 5 pass

K. Havertz

F · Germany

7.50

1 ⚽

3 shots · 36 pass

J. Canale

D · Paraguay

7.50

1 ⚽

· 10 pass

A. Rüdiger

D · Germany

7.30

· 123 pass

Germany — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Neuer	G	120	6.90	—	—	—	27	27%	—	—	—
N. Brown	D	120	7.00	—	—	—	49	43%	5	—	—
A. Rüdiger	D	110	7.30	—	—	—	123	114%	—	—	—
J. Tah	D	120	7.30	—	—	1	117	114%	—	—	—
J. Kimmich	D	120	7.30	1	—	3	141	129%	1	—	—
F. Wirtz	M	110	8.30	—	1	1	80	62%	2	—	—
A. Pavlović	M	79	6.50	—	—	—	74	68%	—	—	—
F. Nmecha	M	45	6.50	—	—	—	14	9%	1	—	—
L. Sané	M	88	6.30	—	—	—	54	48%	1	—	—
D. Undav	F	63	6.30	—	—	1	5	3%	—	—	—
K. Havertz	F	120	7.50	1	—	3	36	31%	—	1	—
J. Musiala	M	57	6.60	1	—	—	25	24%	1	1	—
Leon Goretzka	M	75	6.50	—	—	1	16	11%	1	—	—
M. Thiaw	D	10	6.70	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
N. Amiri	M	10	6.70	1	—	1	5	5%	1	—	—
N. Woltemade	F	32	6.90	—	—	1	2	2%	1	—	—
W. Anton	D	41	6.60	—	—	1	24	22%	—	—	—

Paraguay — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
O. Gill	G	120	8.20	—	—	—	45	12%	—	—	—
J. Alonso	D	119	6.30	—	—	1	25	17%	4	—	—
J. Canale	D	120	7.50	1	—	—	10	5%	5	—	—
G. Gómez	D	120	6.50	1	—	1	15	11%	1	—	—
J. Cáceres	D	99	6.90	—	—	—	23	17%	2	—	—
M. Galarza	M	120	6.90	1	1	—	24	13%	4	1	—
A. Cubas	M	120	6.60	—	—	—	20	15%	5	1	—
Damián Bobadilla	M	99	7.00	—	—	—	17	13%	5	—	—
M. Almirón	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	22	16%	2	—	—
J. Enciso	F	57	7.60	1	—	2	5	5%	—	—	—
G. Ávalos	F	55	6.70	—	—	—	12	6%	—	—	—
A. Sanabria	F	21	6.90	—	—	—	3	2%	2	—	—
Braian Ojeda	M	21	6.30	—	—	—	8	7%	—	—	—
F. Balbuena	D	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
G. Caballero	F	65	6.60	—	—	1	9	7%	1	—	—
Gustavo Velázquez	D	30	6.60	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Maurício	M	63	7.20	1	—	—	16	13%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Germany vs Paraguay?

The final score was Germany 1–1 Paraguay.

What did the model predict before Germany vs Paraguay?

The model assigned 77% probability to a Germany win, 14% to a draw, and 8% to an Paraguay win.