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← UEFA Nations League

Germany - Serbia

#1 · 0 pts
vs
#2 · 4 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
88.64%
Win
Germany
5.93%
Draw
5.43%
Win
Serbia
4.5
Expected xG
0.94
Most likely outcome
Germany
88.64%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 4–0 (8.1%)
1X2 Result
1 89%
X 6%
2 5%
Double Chance
1X 95%
X2 11%
12 94%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Germany a 88% win probability, against 5% for a draw and 5% for Serbia. Expected goals are 4.5 for Germany and 0.9 for Serbia (total 5.4), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–0 at 8.1% probability.

Season Stats

Germany
5W 3D 2L
Serbia
2W 4D 2L
Averages per game
2.4
Goals
0.8
1.2
Conceded
0.9
6.2
Shots OT
2.6
5.4
Corners
3.0
61%
Poss.
36%
Percentages
90%
O 1.5
75%
70%
O 2.5
13%
60%
BTTS
25%
30%
Clean Sht
50%
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
Germany
3W 1D 2L · at home
Serbia
0W 2D 2L · away
2.8
gls/g
0.5
1.2
Conceded
1.8
50%
Win %
0%
67%
Win or Draw
50%
83%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
25%
50%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
17%
Failed to Score
50%
last 6
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Germany Serbia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
1 1.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 4.4% 4.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
3 6.6% 6.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%
4 7.4% 7.0% 3.3% 1.0% 0.2%
5 6.7% 6.3% 3.0% 0.9% 0.2%

Recent form

L France 0–2
L Portugal 1–2
D Italy 3–3
W Italy 1–2
D Hungary 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 18%
W Austria 2–0
D Austria 1–1
D Denmark 0–0
D Switzerland 1–1
L Spain 3–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Germany Germany
Attack
64
Defence
75
Form
66
Serbia Serbia
Attack
27
Defence
41
Form
14
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Unavailable

Germany
N. Brown
N. Brown
Injured
N. Schlotterbeck
N. Schlotterbeck
Injured

UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2

# Team G Pts
1 Germany Germany 0 0
2 Netherlands Netherlands 0 0
3 Serbia Serbia 0 0
4 Greece Greece 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2

Top 2 advance to the next round

Germany Serbia
Current #1 #1
Germany #1 #3
Draw #1 #2
Serbia #2 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Germany vs Serbia?
The model gives Germany a 88% win probability, 5% for a draw, and 5% for an Serbia win.
How many goals are expected in Germany vs Serbia?
Expected goals: Germany 4.5, Serbia 0.9 (total 5.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Germany vs Serbia?
4–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.1%.