Germany - Serbia
⚡ Pre-match analysis
88.64%
Win
Germany
5.93%
Draw
5.43%
Win
Serbia
4.5
0.94
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Germany
88.64%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
4–0
(8.1%)
1X2 Result
1
89%
X
6%
2
5%
Double Chance
1X
95%
X2
11%
12
94%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
84%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Germany a 88% win probability, against 5% for a draw and 5% for Serbia. Expected goals are 4.5 for Germany and 0.9 for Serbia (total 5.4), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 4–0 at 8.1% probability.
Season Stats
5W
3D
2L
2W
4D
2L
Averages per game
2.4
Goals
0.8
1.2
Conceded
0.9
6.2
Shots OT
2.6
5.4
Corners
3.0
61%
Poss.
36%
Percentages
90%
O 1.5
75%
70%
O 2.5
13%
60%
BTTS
25%
30%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
3W
1D
2L
· at home
0W
2D
2L
· away
2.8
gls/g
0.5
1.2
Conceded
1.8
50%
Win %
0%
67%
Win or Draw
50%
83%
O 1.5
100%
67%
O 2.5
25%
50%
O 3.5
0%
33%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
17%
Failed to Score
50%
last 6
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Germany
Serbia →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 1 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 6.6% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — |
| 4 | 7.4% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — |
| 5 | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Germany
Attack
64
Defence
75
Form
66
Serbia
Attack
27
Defence
41
Form
14
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Unavailable
Germany
Injured
Injured
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Germany
|
0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Netherlands
|
0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Serbia
|
0 | 0 |
| 4 |
Greece
|
0 | 0 |
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 2
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #1 |
| → Germany | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Serbia | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Germany vs Serbia?
The model gives Germany a 88% win probability, 5% for a draw, and 5% for an Serbia win.
How many goals are expected in Germany vs Serbia?
Expected goals: Germany 4.5, Serbia 0.9 (total 5.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Germany vs Serbia?
4–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.1%.