Ghana - Somalia
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 11, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
33.48%
Win
Ghana
39.41%
Draw
27.11%
Win
Somalia
0.59
0.4
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(17.15%)
1X2 Result
1
33%
X
39%
2
27%
Double Chance
1X
73%
X2
67%
12
61%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
55%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Ghana a 33% win probability, against 39% for a draw and 27% for Somalia. Expected goals are 0.6 for Ghana and 0.4 for Somalia (total 1.0), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 17.15% probability.
Season Stats
0W
0D
2L
0W
2D
2L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.2
3.0
Conceded
1.0
3.0
Shots OT
0.5
6.5
Corners
1.5
58%
Poss.
33%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
25%
50%
BTTS
25%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
75%
BTTS
0W
0D
1L
· at home
0W
1D
1L
· away
2.0
gls/g
0.5
4.0
Conceded
1.0
0%
Win %
0%
0%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
50%
100%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 2
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Ghana
Somalia →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 37.0% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 1 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 2 | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 3 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Ghana
Attack
20
Defence
57
Form
8
Somalia
Attack
6
Defence
62
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group C
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ivory Coast
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Gambia
|
2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Somalia
|
2 | 0 |
| 4 |
Ghana
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group C
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #3 |
| → Ghana | #3 | #4 |
| → Draw | #4 | #3 |
| → Somalia | #4 | #3 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Ghana vs Somalia?
The model gives Ghana a 33% win probability, 39% for a draw, and 27% for an Somalia win.
How many goals are expected in Ghana vs Somalia?
Expected goals: Ghana 0.6, Somalia 0.4 (total 1.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Ghana vs Somalia?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.15%.