Gnistan 4–2 Mariehamn — pre-match prediction — Veikkausliiga — July 11, 2026

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Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 15 July 11, 2026 16:00 Mustapekka Areena, Helsinki

Gnistan

#4 · 36 pts

4 – 2

Final score

Mariehamn

#1 · 16 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Gnistan

S. Ylatupa 6'

A. Akinyemi (ast. J. Latonen) 51'

A. Akinyemi 71'

D. Perez 90'+4

53' (ast. A. Larsson) A. Stroud

79' (ast. J. Svedberg) W. Nunez

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Gnistan a 86% win probability (draw 6%, Mariehamn 7%). The final result was Gnistan 4–2 Mariehamn. In 3 previous meetings, Gnistan have won 3 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Mariehamn.

Match statistics

Match Events

⚽S. Ylatupa

⚽R. Eremenko (missed pen.)

23'

26'

A. Soiniemi / S. Ngulube ↕

↕ R. Eremenko / J. Latonen

46'

J. Svedberg / V. Widlund ↕

⚽A. Akinyemi · ast. J. Latonen

51'

53'

ast. A. Larsson · A. Stroud⚽

65'

W. Nunez / A. Larsson ↕

↕ S. Ylatupa / A. Atarah

71'

⚽A. Akinyemi

71'

↕ A. Akinyemi / D. Perez

77'

↕ G. Europaeus / S. Eremenko

77'

79'

ast. J. Svedberg · W. Nunez⚽

↕ O. Hannula / J. Selenge

80'

81'

L. Andersson / A. Stroud ↕

81'

A. Bergvik / J. Heyden ↕

⚽D. Perez

90'+4

Pre-match prediction

86.07%

Gnistan ←

6.24%

7.68%

Mariehamn

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Gnistan) 86.07% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Gnistan

4.50

—

Mariehamn

0.44

—

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Lahti	27	39
1	Mariehamn	10	16
1	KuPS	22	43
1	Inter Turku	29	55
2	FF Jaro	11	16
2	HJK Helsinki	29	52
2	Inter Turku	22	42
2	Ilves	27	38
3	Ilves	5	13
3	Turku PS	27	32
3	HJK Helsinki	22	37
3	KuPS	29	52
4	SJK	27	27
4	AC Oulu	29	43
4	AC Oulu	5	9
4	Gnistan	22	36
5	FF Jaro	27	21
5	SJK	5	8
5	Gnistan	29	42
5	AC Oulu	22	34
6	Lahti	5	7
6	VPS	22	33
6	VPS	29	39
6	Mariehamn	27	19
7	Lahti	22	32
7	Kooteepee	7	7
8	Turku PS	22	31
8	Turku PS	7	7
9	VPS	5	6
9	Ilves	22	25
10	PK-35	1	1
10	SJK	22	19
11	Haka	5	1
11	FF Jaro	22	15
12	Mariehamn	22	14

Lineups

Gnistan 3-4-3

Alexandro Craninx G

Marcelo Costa D

A. Obileye D

Rachide Gnanou D

E. Arko-Mensah D

G. Europaeus M

Adam Jouhi M

O. Hannula M

R. Eremenko M

A. Akinyemi 2 ⚽ F

S. Ylätupa 1 ⚽ M

Bench

A. Atarah M

B. Dahlström D

D. Pérez 1 ⚽ F

Jeff Selenge M

J. Latonen 1 👟 F

J. Ojala D

O. Lyberopoulos G

Sergei Eremenko M

Mariehamn 4-1-4-1

Matias Riikonen G

Samson Ngulube D

N. Nurmi D

Y. Amankwah D

T. Koivisto D

J. van der Heyden M

J. Nissinen D

V. Widlund D

E. Patut M

A. Stroud 1 ⚽ M

A. Larsson 1 👟 F

Bench

A. Huttunen M

Arvid Bergvik M

A. Soiniemi D

J. Svedberg 1 👟 M

K. Lund G

L. Andersson F

M. Hyvönen M

W. Nuñez 1 ⚽ F

Gnistan — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Alexandro Craninx	G	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Marcelo Costa	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
A. Obileye	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Rachide Gnanou	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Arko-Mensah	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
G. Europaeus	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Adam Jouhi	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
O. Hannula	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
R. Eremenko	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
A. Akinyemi	F	—	—	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
S. Ylätupa	M	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Mariehamn — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Matias Riikonen	G	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Samson Ngulube	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
N. Nurmi	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Y. Amankwah	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
T. Koivisto	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
J. van der Heyden	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
J. Nissinen	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
V. Widlund	D	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Patut	M	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
A. Stroud	M	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
A. Larsson	F	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Mariehamn?

The final score was Gnistan 4–2 Mariehamn.

What did the model predict before Gnistan vs Mariehamn?

The model assigned 86% probability to a Gnistan win, 6% to a draw, and 7% to an Mariehamn win.