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← Brasileirão Série A
Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 33 October 30, 2026 01:30 Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Gremio
#18 · 37 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Atletico Paranaense
#5 · 54 pts
Marlon 39'
Fabian Balbuena 52'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Gremio a 44% win probability (draw 22%, Atletico Paranaense 33%). The final result was Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense. In 1 previous meetings, Gremio have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Atletico Paranaense.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
5
Shots on target
4
1.31
Actual xG
1.08
4
Saves
3
31%
Possession
69%
6
Corners
8
8
Tackles
14
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
23'
J. Portilla
J. Enamorado
29'
37'
Leo Derik
⚽Marlon
39'
46'
G. Benavidez / Leo Derik ↕
46'
B. Zapelli / J. Portilla ↕
⚽Fabian Balbuena
52'
62'
K. A. Calderon Vargas / Leozinho ↕
Carlos Vinicius
66'
↕ Carlos Vinicius / M. Braithwaite
67'
↕ J. Enamorado / Tete
67'
↕ Fabian Balbuena / Dodi
68'
E. Noriega
69'
↕ F. Amuzu / Caio Paulista
79'
80'
J. Rivaldo / Joao Cruz ↕
↕ M. Villasanti / Wagner Leonardo
87'
88'
B. Zapelli
89'
Dudu Kogitzki / S. Mendoza ↕
Weverton
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
44.76%
Gremio ←
22.01%
X
33.23%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Gremio) 44.76% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Gremio
1.88
1.31
-0.57
Atletico
1.59
1.08
-0.51
xG dominance was balanced (1.31 – 1.08). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 34 76
2 Palmeiras Palmeiras 34 73
3 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 34 60
4 Fluminense Fluminense 34 57
5 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 34 54
6 Bahia Bahia 34 53
7 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG 34 50
8 RB Bragantino RB Bragantino 34 47
9 Santos Santos 34 47
10 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 34 44
11 Botafogo Botafogo 34 42
12 Coritiba Coritiba 34 42
13 Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 33 41
14 Mirassol Mirassol 34 40
15 Vitoria Vitoria 34 38
16 Internacional Internacional 34 38
17 Corinthians Corinthians 34 37
18 Gremio Gremio 34 37
19 Remo Remo 34 29
20 Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 33 21
Lineups
Gremio Gremio 3-4-3
1 Weverton Weverton 84' G 8.20
82 Wallace Wallace 84' D 6.90
2 F. Balbuena F. Balbuena 1 ⚽ 68' D 7.90
6 Gustavo Martins Gustavo Martins 84' D 6.90
23 Marlon Marlon 1 ⚽ 84' M 7.90
20 M. Villasanti M. Villasanti 84' M 6.90
8 E. Noriega E. Noriega 84' M 7.00
18 João Pedro João Pedro 84' M 6.60
9 F. Amuzu F. Amuzu 79' F 6.30
95 Carlos Vinícius Carlos Vinícius 67' F 6.60
99 J. Enamorado J. Enamorado 67' F 6.70
Bench
50 Bernardo Zortea Bernardo Zortea M
48 B. G. Joao Pedro B. G. Joao Pedro M
38 Caio Paulista Caio Paulista 5' D
17 Dodi Dodi 16' M 6.60
10 F. Krovinović F. Krovinović M
12 Gabriel Grando Gabriel Grando G
14 Marcos Rocha Marcos Rocha D
30 Matheus Nascimento Matheus Nascimento F
22 M. Braithwaite M. Braithwaite 17' F 6.20
54 Pedro Gabriel Pedro Gabriel D
11 Tetê Tetê 17' F 6.50
3 Wagner Leonardo Wagner Leonardo D
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
1 Mycael Mycael 84' G 6.70
37 L. Esquivel L. Esquivel 84' D 7.50
33 F. Aguirre F. Aguirre 84' D 6.60
4 Arthur Dias Arthur Dias 84' D 6.90
6 Leo Derik Leo Derik 45' M 6.50
14 Luiz Gustavo Luiz Gustavo 84' M 7.90
27 J. Portilla J. Portilla 45' M 6.50
7 S. Mendoza S. Mendoza 84' M 6.70
8 João Cruz João Cruz 80' F 6.30
21 Leozinho Leozinho 62' F 7.50
9 K. Viveros K. Viveros 84' F 6.50
Bench
55 Bruno Baldini Bruno Baldini D
10 B. Zapelli B. Zapelli 39' M 7.00
47 Chiqueti Chiqueti M
25 Dantas Dantas D
53 Dudu Kogitzki Dudu Kogitzki M
5 Felipinho Felipinho D
29 G. Benavidez G. Benavidez 39' D 6.30
2 Gilberto Junior Gilberto Junior D
19 J. Rivaldo J. Rivaldo 4' F
18 K. A. Calderon Vargas K. A. Calderon Vargas 22' F 6.70
70 Renan Peixoto Renan Peixoto F
23 Santos Santos G
Best on the pitch
Weverton
Weverton
G · Gremio
8.20
· 30 pass
F. Balbuena
F. Balbuena
D · Gremio
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 18 pass
Marlon
Marlon
M · Gremio
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 23 pass
Luiz Gustavo
Luiz Gustavo
M · Atletico
7.90
· 83 pass
Leozinho
Leozinho
F · Atletico
7.50
· 27 pass
L. Esquivel
L. Esquivel
D · Atletico
7.50
· 56 pass
Gremio Gremio — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Weverton G 84 8.20 — — — 30 13% 1 — —
Wallace D 84 6.90 — — 1 27 24% 1 — —
F. Balbuena D 68 7.90 1 — 1 18 15% — — —
Gustavo Martins D 84 6.90 — — — 15 11% — — —
Marlon M 84 7.90 1 — 2 23 17% — — —
M. Villasanti M 84 6.90 — — — 31 24% 2 — —
E. Noriega M 84 7.00 — — 1 19 17% 1 1 —
João Pedro M 84 6.60 — — — 18 12% 1 — —
F. Amuzu F 79 6.30 — — 1 9 6% — — —
Carlos Vinícius F 67 6.60 — — 3 11 8% 2 1 —
J. Enamorado F 67 6.70 — — 2 12 11% — 1 —
Caio Paulista D 5 — — — — — — — — —
Dodi M 16 6.60 — — — 2 2% — — —
M. Braithwaite F 17 6.20 — — — 1 1% — — —
Tetê F 17 6.50 — — — 4 2% — — —
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Mycael G 84 6.70 — — — 11 8% — — —
L. Esquivel D 84 7.50 — — — 56 53% 4 — —
F. Aguirre D 84 6.60 — — 1 37 33% 2 — —
Arthur Dias D 84 6.90 — — — 46 41% 2 — —
Leo Derik M 45 6.50 — — — 23 19% 1 1 —
Luiz Gustavo M 84 7.90 — — — 83 79% 1 — —
J. Portilla M 45 6.50 — — 1 43 41% — 1 —
S. Mendoza M 84 6.70 — — 1 35 29% — — —
João Cruz F 80 6.30 — — 2 36 33% — — —
Leozinho F 62 7.50 — — — 27 25% 1 — —
K. Viveros F 84 6.50 — — 2 12 8% — — —
B. Zapelli M 39 7.00 — — — 38 35% 1 — —
G. Benavidez D 39 6.30 — — 1 32 27% 1 — —
J. Rivaldo F 4 — — — — 1 1% 1 — —
K. A. Calderon Vargas F 22 6.70 — — — 15 15% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
The final score was Gremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense.
What did the model predict before Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
The model assigned 44% probability to a Gremio win, 22% to a draw, and 33% to an Atletico Paranaense win.