Copa Sudamericana
· Round of 32
July 31, 2026 00:00
16'
(ast. Robson Matheus)
Dairon Asprilla
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Gremio a 45% win probability (draw 22%, Bolívar 31%). The final result was Gremio 0–1 Bolívar. In 1 previous meetings, Gremio have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bolívar.
Match statistics
25
Total shots
13
10
Shots on target
6
1.53
Actual xG
1.21
5
Saves
10
66%
Possession
34%
11
Corners
1
16
Tackles
22
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
2
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
16'
ast. Robson Matheus ·
Dairon Asprilla⚽
Dodi
/ Mathias Villasanti
46'
Juan Nardoni
/ Matheus Nascimento
46'
Pedro Gabriel
/ Marlon
46'
Tetê
/ Gabriel Mec
58'
Francis Amuzu
/ José Enamorado
58'
Gabriel Mec
63'
Cristian Pavón
64'
65'
Carlos Melgar
79'
Erwin Saavedra
/
Robson Matheus
90'+2
Leonel Justiniano
Erick Noriega
90'+2
Walter Kannemann
90'+3
Marlon
90'+8
90'
Ervin Vaca
/
Patricio Rodríguez
90'
Luis Paz
/
Carlos Melgar
90'
Leonardo Zabala
/
Dairon Asprilla
Pre-match prediction
45.6%
Gremio
22.42%
X
31.98%
Bolívar ←
we assigned to the actual result (Bolívar)
31.98%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.24
1.53
-0.71
2.06
1.21
-0.85
Gremio dominated by xG (1.53 vs 1.21).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
Gabriel Grando
G
Gabriel Grando
G
54
Pedro Gabriel
45'
D
Pedro Gabriel
45'
D
4
W. Kannemann
D
W. Kannemann
D
6
Gustavo Martins
D
Gustavo Martins
D
7
C. Pavón
D
C. Pavón
D
19
Erick Noriega
M
Erick Noriega
M
9
Francis Amuzu
58'
M
Francis Amuzu
58'
M
17
Dodi
45'
M
Dodi
45'
M
5
J. Nardoni
45'
M
J. Nardoni
45'
M
21
Tetê
58'
M
Tetê
58'
M
22
Martin Braithwaite
F
Martin Braithwaite
F
Bench
2
Fabián Balbuena
D
Fabián Balbuena
D
37
Gabriel Mec
44'
F
Gabriel Mec
44'
F
99
José Enamorado
44'
F
José Enamorado
44'
F
43
Luis Eduardo
D
Luis Eduardo
D
14
Marcos Rocha
D
Marcos Rocha
D
23
Marlon
53'
D
Marlon
53'
D
30
Matheus Nascimento
57'
F
Matheus Nascimento
57'
F
20
Mathias Villasanti
57'
M
Mathias Villasanti
57'
M
65
Riquelme Freitas
M
Riquelme Freitas
M
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
1
Weverton
G
Weverton
G
50
Zortéa
M
Zortéa
M
1
C. Lampe
G
C. Lampe
G
4
Jose Sagredo
D
Jose Sagredo
D
3
X. Arreaga
D
X. Arreaga
D
5
S. Echeverría
D
S. Echeverría
D
2
Jose Sagredo
D
Jose Sagredo
D
80
C. Melgar
M
C. Melgar
M
23
L. Justiniano
M
L. Justiniano
M
17
P. Rodríguez
M
P. Rodríguez
M
14
R. Matheus
1 👟
79'
M
R. Matheus
1 👟
79'
M
77
D. Romero
M
D. Romero
M
27
D. Asprilla
1 ⚽
F
D. Asprilla
1 ⚽
F
Bench
10
B. Arce
M
B. Arce
M
13
D. Méndez
G
D. Méndez
G
35
E. Rivero
D
E. Rivero
D
26
E. Saavedra
23'
M
E. Saavedra
23'
M
6
E. Vaca
7'
M
E. Vaca
7'
M
33
F. Mena
D
F. Mena
D
19
J. García
M
J. García
M
7
J. Velásquez
F
J. Velásquez
F
18
L. Chávez
M
L. Chávez
M
8
L. Paz
7'
D
L. Paz
7'
D
16
L. Zabala
7'
D
L. Zabala
7'
D
9
M. Cauteruccio
F
M. Cauteruccio
F
Best on the pitch
C. Lampe
G · Bolívar
9.90
· 34 pass
Jose Sagredo
D · Bolívar
7.90
· 19 pass
D. Asprilla
F · Bolívar
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 11 pass
Gustavo Martins
D · Gremio
7.50
2 shots
· 79 pass
X. Arreaga
D · Bolívar
7.50
· 31 pass
Tetê
M · Gremio
7.50
3 shots
· 37 pass
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Grando | G | 102 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 19 | 17% | — | — | — |
| W. Kannemann | D | 102 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 67% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 102 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 79 | 77% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Pavón | D | 102 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 72 | 57% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 86 | 76% | 5 | — | 1 |
| Francis Amuzu | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 45 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Tetê | M | 58 | 7.50 | — | — | 3 | 37 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 102 | 6.20 | — | — | 7 | 18 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 44 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 1 | 1 | — |
| José Enamorado | F | 44 | 6.50 | — | — | 3 | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 53 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 3 | — | 1 |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | 57 | 7.00 | — | — | 4 | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Mathias Villasanti | M | 57 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | — | — | — |
Bolívar — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lampe | G | 102 | 9.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 102 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| X. Arreaga | D | 102 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Echeverría | D | 102 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Jose Sagredo | D | 102 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Melgar | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 34% | 3 | 1 | — |
| L. Justiniano | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 23% | 2 | — | 1 |
| P. Rodríguez | M | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 27 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| R. Matheus | M | 79 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 28 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Romero | M | 102 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Asprilla | F | 95 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 11 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Saavedra | M | 23 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| E. Vaca | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| L. Paz | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| L. Zabala | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Gremio vs Bolívar?
The final score was Gremio 0–1 Bolívar.
What did the model predict before Gremio vs Bolívar?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Gremio win, 22% to a draw, and 31% to an Bolívar win.