Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série A — October 18, 2026

← Brasileirão Série A

Brasileirão Série A · Regular Season - 31 October 18, 2026 21:00 Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

Gremio

#15 · 37 pts

2 – 4

Final score

Cruzeiro

#3 · 57 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Cruzeiro

Carlos Vinícius 17' (pen.)

Cristian Pavón 41'

23' (ast. Matheus Pereira) Kaio Jorge

48' Kaio Jorge

61' (ast. William) Kaio Jorge

80' (ast. Gerson) João Marcelo

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cruzeiro a 50% win probability (draw 18%, Gremio 31%). The final result was Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro. In 2 previous meetings, Gremio have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Cruzeiro.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.07

Actual xG

1.54

Saves

40%

Possession

60%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

⚽Carlos Vinícius (pen.)

17'

23'

ast. Matheus Pereira · Kaio Jorge⚽

↕ Danilo Barbosa da Silva / Erick Noriega

36'

⚽Cristian Pavón

41'

48'

Kaio Jorge⚽

61'

ast. William · Kaio Jorge⚽

↕ Filip Krovinović / Martin Braithwaite

66'

Matheus Henrique / Zé Lucas ↕

67'

João Marcelo

71'

Matheus Pereira

Walter Kannemann

73'

Walter Kannemann

73'

Erick Noriega

74'

76'

Keny arroyo

79'

Wesley Gassova Ribeiro Teixeira / Keny arroyo ↕

80'

ast. Gerson · João Marcelo⚽

90'+2

Fabrício Bruno / João Marcelo ↕

90'+2

Bruno Rodrigues / Gerson ↕

90'+2

Luciano Rodríguez / Kaio Jorge ↕

↕ Francis Amuzu / José Enamorado

90'

↕ Cristian Pavón / Tetê

90'

Pre-match prediction

31.08%

Gremio

18.86%

50.06%

Cruzeiro ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Cruzeiro) 50.06% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Gremio

1.94

2.07

+0.13

Cruzeiro

2.61

1.54

-1.07

Gremio dominated by xG (2.07 vs 1.54). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	33	73
2	Palmeiras	33	70
3	Cruzeiro	33	57
4	Fluminense	33	54
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	54
6	Bahia	33	53
7	Atletico-MG	33	50
8	Santos	33	47
9	RB Bragantino	33	44
10	Sao Paulo	33	43
11	Botafogo	33	39
12	Coritiba	32	39
13	Vasco DA Gama	32	38
14	Vitoria	32	38
15	Gremio	33	37
16	Mirassol	32	37
17	Internacional	33	35
18	Corinthians	32	33
19	Remo	33	29
20	Chapecoense-sc	32	21

Lineups

Gremio 4-2-3-1

Weverton G 5.85

Marlon D 6.08

W. Kannemann 73' D 4.19

Gustavo Martins D 5.72

Diego Caito D 5.99

Danilo Barbosa 36' M 5.83

Mathias Villasanti M 6.61

Francis Amuzu 89' M 6.27

Filip Krovinović 66' M 6.11

C. Pavón 1 ⚽ 89' M 7.40

Carlos Vinícius 1 ⚽ F 6.82

Bench

Caio Paulista D 0.00

Dodi M 0.00

Erick Noriega 54' M 6.02

Fabián Balbuena D 0.00

Gabriel Grando G 0.00

João Pedro D 0.00

José Enamorado 1' F 0.00

Marcos Rocha D 0.00

Martin Braithwaite 24' F 6.45

Pedro Gabriel D 0.00

Tetê 1' F 0.00

Wagner Leonardo D 0.00

Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1

Otávio Costa G 6.98

Lucas Villalba D 6.28

Jonathan Jesus D 6.59

João Marcelo 1 ⚽ 89' D 7.48

William Furtado 1 👟 D 6.60

Lucas Romero M 6.69

Zé Lucas 66' M 6.05

Gerson 1 👟 89' M 7.07

Matheus Pereira 1 👟 M 7.66

Keny Arroyo 79' M 6.31

Kaio Jorge 3 ⚽ 89' F 9.26

Bench

Bruno Rodrigues 1' F 0.00

Cássio G 0.00

Fabrício Bruno 1' D 0.00

Fagner D 0.00

Gabriel Rojas D 0.00

Kauã Moraes D 0.00

Lucas Silva M 0.00

Luciano Rodríguez 1' F 0.00

Marquinhos F 0.00

Matheus Henrique 24' M 5.94

Matías Viña D 0.00

Wesley 11' F 6.87

Best on the pitch

Kaio Jorge

F · Cruzeiro

9.26

3 ⚽

3 shots · 32 pass

Matheus Pereira

M · Cruzeiro

7.66

1 👟

1 shots · 65 pass

João Marcelo

D · Cruzeiro

7.48

1 ⚽

1 shots · 63 pass

C. Pavón

M · Gremio

7.40

1 ⚽

4 shots · 25 pass

Gerson

M · Cruzeiro

7.07

1 👟

2 shots · 44 pass

Otávio Costa

G · Cruzeiro

6.98

· 12 pass

Gremio — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Weverton	G	90	5.85	—	—	1	30	18%	0	—	—
Marlon	D	90	6.08	—	—	1	39	28%	2	—	—
W. Kannemann	D	73	4.19	—	—	0	35	28%	1	1	1
Gustavo Martins	D	90	5.72	—	—	2	37	30%	1	—	—
Diego Caito	D	90	5.99	—	—	2	26	20%	2	—	—
Danilo Barbosa	M	36	5.83	—	—	0	10	8%	0	—	—
Mathias Villasanti	M	90	6.61	—	—	1	35	32%	4	—	—
Francis Amuzu	M	89	6.27	—	—	1	25	23%	0	—	—
Filip Krovinović	M	66	6.11	—	—	1	22	19%	3	—	—
C. Pavón	M	89	7.40	1	—	4	25	18%	1	—	—
Carlos Vinícius	F	90	6.82	1	—	4	13	6%	0	—	—
Erick Noriega	M	54	6.02	—	—	0	26	22%	0	1	—
José Enamorado	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
Martin Braithwaite	F	24	6.45	—	—	0	3	2%	1	—	—
Tetê	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	4	4%	0	—	—

Cruzeiro — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Otávio Costa	G	90	6.98	—	—	0	12	8%	0	—	—
Lucas Villalba	D	90	6.28	—	—	1	32	26%	2	—	—
Jonathan Jesus	D	90	6.59	—	—	0	41	36%	0	—	—
João Marcelo	D	89	7.48	1	—	1	63	54%	1	1	—
William Furtado	D	90	6.60	—	1	0	51	43%	2	—	—
Lucas Romero	M	90	6.69	—	—	1	82	72%	0	—	—
Zé Lucas	M	66	6.05	—	—	0	35	29%	1	—	—
Gerson	M	89	7.07	—	1	2	44	39%	0	—	—
Matheus Pereira	M	90	7.66	—	1	1	65	56%	1	1	—
Keny Arroyo	M	79	6.31	—	—	3	19	14%	2	1	—
Kaio Jorge	F	89	9.26	3	—	3	32	25%	0	—	—
Bruno Rodrigues	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	3	3%	0	—	—
Fabrício Bruno	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	1	1%	1	—	—
Luciano Rodríguez	F	1	0.00	—	—	0	4	4%	0	—	—
Matheus Henrique	M	24	5.94	—	—	0	17	17%	0	—	—
Wesley	F	11	6.87	—	—	1	14	12%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

The final score was Gremio 2–4 Cruzeiro.

What did the model predict before Gremio vs Cruzeiro?

The model assigned 31% probability to a Gremio win, 18% to a draw, and 50% to an Cruzeiro win.