Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 15
May 11, 2026 00:30
68'
(ast. Emerson Royal)
J. Carrascal
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Flamengo a 50% win probability (draw 26%, Gremio 23%). The final result was Gremio 0–1 Flamengo.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
15
3
Shots on target
5
0.26
Actual xG
2.71
4
Saves
2
32%
Possession
68%
0
Corners
6
13
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
Pedro Gabriel
/ Caio Paulista
10'
20'
Jorginho
C. Pavon
44'
45'+4
Evertton Araujo
64'
Luiz Araujo
/
G. Plata
64'
Emerson Royal
/
Ayrton Lucas
L. Perez
/ Tiago
65'
68'
ast. Emerson Royal ·
J. Carrascal⚽
73'
Pedro
F. Amuzu
/ M. Braithwaite
77'
C. Pavon
/ J. Enamorado
77'
87'
N. de la Cruz
/
J. Carrascal
87'
Bruno Henrique
/
Pedro
Pre-match prediction
23.21%
Gremio
26.56%
X
50.23%
Flamengo ←
we assigned to the actual result (Flamengo)
50.23%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.70
0.26
-0.44
1.53
2.71
+1.18
Flamengo dominated by xG (2.71 vs 0.26).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Weverton
G
Weverton
G
44
Viery
D
Viery
D
6
Gustavo Martins
D
Gustavo Martins
D
2
Fabián Balbuena
D
Fabián Balbuena
D
54
Pedro Gabriel
10'
M
Pedro Gabriel
10'
M
19
Erick Noriega
M
Erick Noriega
M
33
Leonel Pérez
65'
M
Leonel Pérez
65'
M
7
Cristian Pavón
77'
M
Cristian Pavón
77'
M
9
F. Amuzu
77'
F
F. Amuzu
77'
F
95
Carlos Vinícius
F
Carlos Vinícius
F
37
Gabriel Mec
F
Gabriel Mec
F
Bench
77
André Henrique
F
André Henrique
F
38
Caio Paulista
86'
D
Caio Paulista
86'
D
17
Dodi
M
Dodi
M
99
José Enamorado
19'
F
José Enamorado
19'
F
14
Marcos Rocha
D
Marcos Rocha
D
22
M. Braithwaite
19'
F
M. Braithwaite
19'
F
21
Tetê
F
Tetê
F
24
Thiago Beltrame
G
Thiago Beltrame
G
39
Tiaguinho
31'
M
Tiaguinho
31'
M
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
10
Willian
M
Willian
M
4
W. Kannemann
D
W. Kannemann
D
1
Agustín Rossi
G
Agustín Rossi
G
6
Ayrton Lucas
65'
D
Ayrton Lucas
65'
D
4
Léo Pereira
D
Léo Pereira
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
Léo Ortiz
D
2
Guillermo Varela
D
Guillermo Varela
D
21
Jorginho
M
Jorginho
M
52
Evertton Araujo
M
Evertton Araujo
M
16
Samuel Lino
M
Samuel Lino
M
15
Jorge Carrascal
1 ⚽
87'
M
Jorge Carrascal
1 ⚽
87'
M
19
Gonzalo Plata
64'
M
Gonzalo Plata
64'
M
9
Pedro
87'
F
Pedro
87'
F
Bench
42
Andrew
G
Andrew
G
27
Bruno Henrique
9'
F
Bruno Henrique
9'
F
13
Danilo
D
Danilo
D
49
Dyogo Alves
G
Dyogo Alves
G
22
Emerson Royal
1 👟
31'
D
Emerson Royal
1 👟
31'
D
11
Everton
F
Everton
F
77
Johnny Goes
D
Johnny Goes
D
7
Luiz Araújo
32'
F
Luiz Araújo
32'
F
75
Luiz Felipe
M
Luiz Felipe
M
18
Nicolás de la Cruz
9'
M
Nicolás de la Cruz
9'
M
8
Saúl Ñíguez
M
Saúl Ñíguez
M
44
Vitão
D
Vitão
D
Best on the pitch
Weverton
G · Gremio
8.50
· 22 pass
Bruno Henrique
F · Flamengo
7.70
1 shots
· 1 pass
Léo Pereira
D · Flamengo
7.70
· 86 pass
Jorginho
M · Flamengo
7.50
1 shots
· 125 pass
Léo Ortiz
D · Flamengo
7.50
· 84 pass
Samuel Lino
M · Flamengo
7.30
2 shots
· 45 pass
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weverton | G | 96 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 22 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 51 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | M | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonel Pérez | M | 65 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Cristian Pavón | M | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 16% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Amuzu | F | 77 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 96 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 96 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 86 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 19 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Tiaguinho | M | 31 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 26 | 24% | — | — | — |
Flamengo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agustín Rossi | G | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 96 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 86 | 81% | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 84 | 77% | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 96 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 65 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 96 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 125 | 121% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 96 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 109 | 104% | — | 1 | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 96 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 45 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 87 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | M | 64 | 6.60 | — | — | 3 | 40 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 9 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 31 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | 9 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Gremio vs Flamengo?
The final score was Gremio 0–1 Flamengo.
What did the model predict before Gremio vs Flamengo?
The model assigned 23% probability to a Gremio win, 26% to a draw, and 50% to an Flamengo win.