Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 20
July 26, 2026 23:30
Diego Caito
(ast. J. Cabral)
89'
(pen.)
65'
Hulk
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fluminense a 41% win probability (draw 27%, Gremio 31%). The final result was Gremio 1–1 Fluminense. In 1 previous meetings, Gremio have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fluminense.
Match statistics
4
Total shots
2
2
Shots on target
1
0.49
Actual xG
0.10
1
Saves
2
44%
Possession
56%
2
Corners
1
7
Tackles
3
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
12'
Hercules
13'
Guga
21'
Rene
/
Guilherme Arana
65'
(pen.)
Hulk⚽
69'
Thiago Silva
C. Pavon
/ Diego Caito
69'
E. Noriega
/ M. Braithwaite
69'
75'
G. Cano
/
Hulk
75'
Nonato
/
L. Acosta
Carlos Vinicius
76'
F. Amuzu
/ J. Cabral
78'
Tete
/ J. Enamorado
78'
79'
A. Canobbio
Marlon
/ Pedro Gabriel
80'
87'
Y. Soteldo
/
K. Serna
87'
Ignacio
/
Hercules
⚽Diego Caito
· ast. J. Cabral
89'
J. Nardoni
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
31.57%
Gremio
27.16%
X ←
41.26%
Fluminense
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
27.16%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.95
0.49
-0.46
1.29
0.10
-1.19
Gremio dominated by xG (0.49 vs 0.10).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
Gabriel Grando
49'
G
Gabriel Grando
49'
G
23
Marlon
49'
D
Marlon
49'
D
4
Walter Kannemann
49'
D
Walter Kannemann
49'
D
6
Gustavo Martins
49'
D
Gustavo Martins
49'
D
7
C. Pavón
49'
D
C. Pavón
49'
D
19
E. Noriega
49'
M
E. Noriega
49'
M
9
F. Amuzu
49'
M
F. Amuzu
49'
M
5
J. Nardoni
49'
M
J. Nardoni
49'
M
20
M. Villasanti
49'
M
M. Villasanti
49'
M
21
Tete
49'
M
Tete
49'
M
95
Carlos Vinícius
49'
F
Carlos Vinícius
49'
F
Bench
27
Diego Caito
1 ⚽
D
Diego Caito
1 ⚽
D
17
Dodi
M
Dodi
M
37
Gabriel Mec
F
Gabriel Mec
F
77
J. Cabral
1 👟
F
J. Cabral
1 👟
F
99
J. Enamorado
F
J. Enamorado
F
43
Luis Eduardo
D
Luis Eduardo
D
30
Matheus Nascimento
F
Matheus Nascimento
F
22
M. Braithwaite
F
M. Braithwaite
F
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
Pedro Gabriel
D
65
Riquelme Freitas
M
Riquelme Freitas
M
24
Thiago Beltrame
G
Thiago Beltrame
G
3
Wagner Leonardo
D
Wagner Leonardo
D
1
Fábio
49'
G
Fábio
49'
G
13
Guilherme Arana
21'
D
Guilherme Arana
21'
D
22
Juan Pablo Freytes
49'
D
Juan Pablo Freytes
49'
D
3
Thiago Silva
49'
D
Thiago Silva
49'
D
23
Guga
49'
D
Guga
49'
D
35
Hércules
49'
M
Hércules
49'
M
8
Martinelli
49'
M
Martinelli
49'
M
17
Agustín Canobbio
49'
M
Agustín Canobbio
49'
M
32
Luciano Acosta
49'
M
Luciano Acosta
49'
M
90
Kevin Serna
49'
M
Kevin Serna
49'
M
7
Hulk
1 ⚽
49'
F
Hulk
1 ⚽
49'
F
Bench
10
Ganso
M
Ganso
M
14
Germán Cano
F
Germán Cano
F
4
Ignacio
D
Ignacio
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
Igor Rabello
D
46
Julio Fidelis
D
Julio Fidelis
D
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
16
Nonato
M
Nonato
M
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
6
Renê
28'
D
Renê
28'
D
28
Riquelme Felipe
F
Riquelme Felipe
F
2
Samuel Xavier
D
Samuel Xavier
D
30
Yeferson Soteldo
F
Yeferson Soteldo
F
Best on the pitch
C. Pavón
D · Gremio
7.20
· 27 pass
Marlon
D · Gremio
7.00
· 26 pass
Thiago Silva
D · Fluminense
6.90
· 39 pass
Juan Pablo Freytes
D · Fluminense
6.90
· 42 pass
Fábio
G · Fluminense
6.90
· 10 pass
F. Amuzu
M · Gremio
6.90
· 12 pass
Gremio — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Grando | G | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 49 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | 49 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Pavón | D | 49 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Noriega | M | 49 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Amuzu | M | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 9% | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 49 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Villasanti | M | 49 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 25 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Tete | M | 49 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 49 | 6.50 | — | — | 3 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 21 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Juan Pablo Freytes | D | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | — | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | 49 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 49 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 49 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 35% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Martinelli | M | 49 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 48 | 46% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 49 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 49 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 35 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 49 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Hulk | F | 49 | 6.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 28 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Gremio vs Fluminense?
The final score was Gremio 1–1 Fluminense.
What did the model predict before Gremio vs Fluminense?
The model assigned 31% probability to a Gremio win, 27% to a draw, and 41% to an Fluminense win.