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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 9 October 18, 2026 16:45 Euroborg, Groningen
Groningen
#8 · 15 pts
2 – 5
Final score
Ajax
#2 · 21 pts
Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson 49'
Thom Van Bergen 83'
27' Julian Brandt
37' Aaron Bouwman
60' (ast. Owen Wijndal) Julian Brandt
69' Jorthy Mokio
75' (ast. Davy Klaassen) Jorthy Mokio
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ajax a 42% win probability (draw 27%, Groningen 30%). The final result was Groningen 2–5 Ajax. In 3 previous meetings, Groningen have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Ajax.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
15
5
Shots on target
11
2.29
Actual xG
3.04
4
Saves
3
57%
Possession
43%
7
Corners
4
19
Tackles
14
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
10'
(missed pen.) Davy Klaassen⚽
16'
27'
Julian Brandt⚽
37'
Aaron Bouwman⚽
Thom Van Bergen
40'
45'+2
Dies Janse
⚽Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
49'
56'
60'
ast. Owen Wijndal · Julian Brandt⚽
↕ Jacob Ondrejka / Mark Csinger
67'
69'
Jorthy Mokio⚽
74'
Abdellah Ouazane / Julian Brandt ↕
74'
Tolu Arokodare / Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida ↕
75'
ast. Davy Klaassen · Jorthy Mokio⚽
82'
Rayane Bounida / Oscar Gloukh ↕
82'
Yves Bissouma / Davy Klaassen ↕
↕ Marco Rente / Wouter Prins
83'
⚽Thom Van Bergen
83'
↕ David van der Werff / Ryan Metu
83'
↕ Tika de Jonge / Nils Eggens
83'
↕ Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson / Tygo Land
83'
⚽Thom Van Bergen (missed pen.)
90'+1
90'
Lucas Oliveira·Rosa
Pre-match prediction
30.37%
Groningen
27.26%
X
42.36%
Ajax ←
we assigned to the actual result (Ajax) 42.36% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Groningen
1.26
2.29
+1.03
Ajax
1.75
3.04
+1.29
Ajax dominated by xG (3.04 vs 2.29). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Feyenoord Feyenoord 10 24
2 Ajax Ajax 10 21
3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 10 20
4 Twente Twente 10 20
5 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 10 20
6 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 10 18
7 Heerenveen Heerenveen 10 15
8 Groningen Groningen 10 15
9 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles 10 14
10 Cambuur Cambuur 10 12
11 Utrecht Utrecht 10 12
12 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 10 11
13 Excelsior Excelsior 10 11
14 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 10 9
15 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 10 8
16 Telstar Telstar 10 6
17 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 10 6
18 Willem II Willem II 10 2
Lineups
Groningen Groningen 4-2-3-1
1 E. Vaessen E. Vaessen G 6.40
33 H. Hateboer H. Hateboer D 6.33
5 M. Rente M. Rente 83' D 5.93
3 T. Blokzijl T. Blokzijl D 6.07
14 J. Schreuders J. Schreuders D 5.93
24 P. Clement P. Clement M 6.42
8 T. de Jonge T. de Jonge 83' M 6.49
11 J. Ondrejka J. Ondrejka 67' M 5.96
26 T. van Bergen T. van Bergen 1 ⚽ M 6.71
17 D. van der Werff D. van der Werff 83' M 6.15
9 B. Willumsson B. Willumsson 1 ⚽ 83' F 7.45
Bench
16 A. Nordin A. Nordin M 0.00
44 Besnik Mashuku Besnik Mashuku M 0.00
42 J. Mosselaar J. Mosselaar D 0.00
13 L. Štubljar L. Štubljar G 0.00
4 M. Csinger M. Csinger 23' D 5.57
20 Nils Eggens Nils Eggens 7' F 6.80
19 O. Zawada O. Zawada F 0.00
30 P. Boevink P. Boevink G 0.00
34 R. Metu R. Metu 7' F 6.60
7 T. Hernes T. Hernes M 0.00
18 T. Land T. Land 7' M 5.46
2 Wouter Prins Wouter Prins 7' D 5.61
Ajax Ajax 4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen M. ter Stegen G 6.63
5 O. Wijndal O. Wijndal 1 👟 D 7.02
36 D. Janse D. Janse D 6.94
30 A. Bouwman A. Bouwman 1 ⚽ D 7.31
2 Lucas Rosa Lucas Rosa D 6.53
24 J. Mokio J. Mokio 2 ⚽ M 8.92
4 S. Amrabat S. Amrabat M 6.67
18 D. Klaassen D. Klaassen 1 👟 82' M 7.01
10 O. Gloukh O. Gloukh 82' F 6.07
38 Marcos Leonardo Marcos Leonardo 74' F 6.49
8 J. Brandt J. Brandt 2 ⚽ 74' F 8.74
Bench
68 A. Ouazane A. Ouazane 16' M 6.27
51 C. Setford C. Setford G 0.00
21 Jofre Torrents Jofre Torrents D 0.00
67 Mohamed Abdalla Mohamed Abdalla M 0.00
26 M. Paes M. Paes G 0.00
43 Rayane Bounida Rayane Bounida 8' F 6.77
99 T. Arokodare T. Arokodare 16' F 6.62
6 T. Kehrer T. Kehrer D 0.00
11 V. Tsygankov V. Tsygankov F 0.00
15 Y. Baas Y. Baas D 0.00
28 Y. Bissouma Y. Bissouma 8' M 6.12
Best on the pitch
J. Mokio
J. Mokio
M · Ajax
8.92
2 ⚽
3 shots · 37 pass
J. Brandt
J. Brandt
F · Ajax
8.74
2 ⚽
2 shots · 40 pass
B. Willumsson
B. Willumsson
F · Groningen
7.45
1 ⚽
1 shots · 14 pass
A. Bouwman
A. Bouwman
D · Ajax
7.31
1 ⚽
1 shots · 53 pass
O. Wijndal
O. Wijndal
D · Ajax
7.02
1 👟
· 33 pass
D. Klaassen
D. Klaassen
M · Ajax
7.01
1 👟
2 shots · 26 pass
Groningen Groningen — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Vaessen G 90 6.40 — — 0 33 23% 0 — —
H. Hateboer D 90 6.33 — — 1 60 55% 3 — —
M. Rente D 83 5.93 — — 0 48 44% 1 — —
T. Blokzijl D 90 6.07 — — 0 66 58% 4 — —
J. Schreuders D 90 5.93 — — 1 42 34% 2 — —
P. Clement M 90 6.42 — — 1 40 36% 2 — —
T. de Jonge M 83 6.49 — — 2 36 31% 0 — —
J. Ondrejka M 67 5.96 — — 1 13 10% 0 — —
T. van Bergen M 90 6.71 1 — 4 16 14% 2 1 —
D. van der Werff M 83 6.15 — — 3 26 20% 4 — —
B. Willumsson F 83 7.45 1 — 1 14 10% 0 — —
M. Csinger D 23 5.57 — — 0 21 20% 1 — —
Nils Eggens F 7 6.80 — — 1 4 4% 0 — —
R. Metu F 7 6.60 — — 1 2 2% 0 — —
T. Land M 7 5.46 — — 0 13 11% 0 — —
Wouter Prins D 7 5.61 — — 0 4 4% 0 — —
Ajax Ajax — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. ter Stegen G 90 6.63 — — 0 38 29% 0 — —
O. Wijndal D 90 7.02 — 1 0 33 31% 1 — —
D. Janse D 90 6.94 — — 0 72 69% 2 1 —
A. Bouwman D 90 7.31 1 — 1 53 43% 0 — —
Lucas Rosa D 90 6.53 — — 1 31 27% 4 1 —
J. Mokio M 90 8.92 2 — 3 37 32% 1 — —
S. Amrabat M 90 6.67 — — 0 58 53% 2 — —
D. Klaassen M 82 7.01 — 1 2 26 22% 2 — —
O. Gloukh F 82 6.07 — — 1 33 28% 0 — —
Marcos Leonardo F 74 6.49 — — 2 11 9% 1 — —
J. Brandt F 74 8.74 2 — 2 40 37% 0 — —
A. Ouazane M 16 6.27 — — 1 4 3% 1 — —
Rayane Bounida F 8 6.77 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
T. Arokodare F 16 6.62 — — 2 8 5% 0 — —
Y. Bissouma M 8 6.12 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Groningen vs Ajax?
The final score was Groningen 2–5 Ajax.
What did the model predict before Groningen vs Ajax?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Groningen win, 27% to a draw, and 42% to an Ajax win.