(pen.)
42'
A. Vega
74'
(ast. Helinho)
J. Gallardo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Guadalajara Chivas a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Toluca 32%). The final result was Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca. In 2 previous meetings, Guadalajara Chivas have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
14
4
Shots on target
10
0.96
Actual xG
1.93
8
Saves
3
40%
Possession
60%
9
Corners
2
15
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
19'
F. Romero
42'
(pen.)
A. Vega⚽
K. Castaneda
/ B. Gutierrez
46'
A. Sepulveda
50'
R. Alvarado
54'
R. Ledezma
/ A. Gonzalez
56'
59'
Helinho
/
E. Gutierrez
61'
J. Gallardo
O. Govea
/ J. Carrillo
68'
70'
V. Guzman
/
A. Vega
74'
ast. Helinho ·
J. Gallardo⚽
D. Campillo Del Campo
/ R. Marin
86'
D. Aguirre
/ M. Gomez
86'
87'
Bruno Mendez
/
N. Castro
87'
F. Arce
/
J. Angulo
J. Carrillo
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
34.71%
Guadalajara
32.37%
X
32.92%
Toluca ←
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
32.92%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.83
0.96
-0.87
1.01
1.93
+0.92
Toluca dominated by xG (1.93 vs 0.96).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
J. Rangel
G
J. Rangel
G
3
D. Campillo
85'
D
D. Campillo
85'
D
7
L. Romo
D
L. Romo
D
23
D. Aguirre
86'
D
D. Aguirre
86'
D
28
R. González
M
R. González
M
5
Bryan González
M
Bryan González
M
19
K. Castañeda
45'
M
K. Castañeda
45'
M
6
O. Govea
68'
M
O. Govea
68'
M
37
R. Ledezma
56'
M
R. Ledezma
56'
M
9
Á. Sepúlveda
50'
F
Á. Sepúlveda
50'
F
25
R. Alvarado
F
R. Alvarado
F
Bench
34
A. González
34'
F
A. González
34'
F
11
B. Gutiérrez
45'
M
B. Gutiérrez
45'
M
33
J. Carrillo
22'
M
J. Carrillo
22'
M
2
José Castillo
D
José Castillo
D
18
J. Pérez
M
J. Pérez
M
16
Luis Gabriel Rey
D
Luis Gabriel Rey
D
24
Miguel Gómez
12'
D
Miguel Gómez
12'
D
4
Miguel Tapias
D
Miguel Tapias
D
13
Óscar Whalley
G
Óscar Whalley
G
17
R. Marín
13'
F
R. Marín
13'
F
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
20
J. Gallardo
1 ⚽
D
J. Gallardo
1 ⚽
D
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
6
F. Pereira
D
F. Pereira
D
19
Santiago Simón
D
Santiago Simón
D
35
Érick Gutiérrez
59'
M
Érick Gutiérrez
59'
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
9
A. Vega
1 ⚽
70'
M
A. Vega
1 ⚽
70'
M
8
N. Castro
87'
M
N. Castro
87'
M
10
J. Angulo
87'
M
J. Angulo
87'
M
29
J. Díaz
F
J. Díaz
F
Bench
3
A. Briseño
D
A. Briseño
D
17
B. García
D
B. García
D
4
B. Méndez
11'
D
B. Méndez
11'
D
2
D. Barbosa
D
D. Barbosa
D
24
F. Arce
11'
M
F. Arce
11'
M
11
Helinho
1 👟
31'
F
Helinho
1 👟
31'
F
1
H. González
G
H. González
G
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
7
V. Guzmán
20'
M
V. Guzmán
20'
M
Best on the pitch
F. Pereira
D · Toluca
8.70
1 shots
· 70 pass
J. Rangel
G · Guadalajara
8.50
· 29 pass
Helinho
F · Toluca
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 19 pass
Santiago Simón
D · Toluca
7.50
· 45 pass
Luis García
G · Toluca
7.50
· 42 pass
R. Alvarado
F · Guadalajara
7.20
2 shots
· 34 pass
Guadalajara Chivas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Rangel | G | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| D. Campillo | D | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Romo | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Aguirre | D | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | 3 | — | — |
| R. González | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Bryan González | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Castañeda | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| O. Govea | M | 68 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Ledezma | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Á. Sepúlveda | F | 50 | 5.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 6% | — | — | 1 |
| R. Alvarado | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 25% | 4 | 1 | — |
| A. González | F | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| B. Gutiérrez | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Carrillo | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Gómez | D | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Marín | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 51 | 40% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. López | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 61 | 54% | 3 | — | — |
| F. Pereira | D | 90 | 8.70 | — | — | 1 | 70 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 4 | — | — |
| Érick Gutiérrez | M | 59 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 53% | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Vega | M | 70 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 37 | 34% | — | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 62 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 19 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| B. Méndez | D | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| F. Arce | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Helinho | F | 31 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
| V. Guzmán | M | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
The final score was Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Guadalajara Chivas win, 32% to a draw, and 32% to an Toluca win.