(pen.)
42'
A. Vega
74'
(ast. Helinho)
J. Gallardo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Guadalajara Chivas a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Toluca 32%). The final result was Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca. In 2 previous meetings, Guadalajara Chivas have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Toluca.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
14
4
Shots on target
10
0.96
Actual xG
1.93
8
Saves
3
40%
Possession
60%
9
Corners
2
15
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
19'
F. Romero
42'
(pen.)
A. Vega⚽
K. Castaneda
/ B. Gutierrez
46'
A. Sepulveda
50'
R. Alvarado
54'
R. Ledezma
/ A. Gonzalez
56'
59'
Helinho
/
E. Gutierrez
61'
J. Gallardo
O. Govea
/ J. Carrillo
68'
70'
V. Guzman
/
A. Vega
74'
ast. Helinho ·
J. Gallardo⚽
D. Campillo Del Campo
/ R. Marin
86'
D. Aguirre
/ M. Gomez
86'
87'
Bruno Mendez
/
N. Castro
87'
F. Arce
/
J. Angulo
J. Carrillo
90'+6
Pre-match prediction
34.71%
Guadalajara
32.37%
X
32.92%
Toluca ←
we assigned to the actual result (Toluca)
32.92%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.83
0.96
-0.87
1.01
1.93
+0.92
Toluca dominated by xG (1.93 vs 0.96).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Raúl Rangel
G
Raúl Rangel
G
3
Diego Campillo
85'
D
Diego Campillo
85'
D
7
Luis Romo
D
Luis Romo
D
23
Daniel Aguirre
86'
D
Daniel Aguirre
86'
D
28
Fernando González
M
Fernando González
M
5
Bryan González
M
Bryan González
M
19
Kevin Castañeda
45'
M
Kevin Castañeda
45'
M
6
Omar Govea
68'
M
Omar Govea
68'
M
37
Richard Ledezma
56'
M
Richard Ledezma
56'
M
9
Á. Sepúlveda
50'
F
Á. Sepúlveda
50'
F
25
R. Alvarado
F
R. Alvarado
F
Bench
34
Armando González
34'
F
Armando González
34'
F
11
Brian Gutiérrez
45'
M
Brian Gutiérrez
45'
M
33
J. Carrillo
22'
M
J. Carrillo
22'
M
18
Jonathan Perez
M
Jonathan Perez
M
2
José Castillo
D
José Castillo
D
16
Luis Gabriel Rey
D
Luis Gabriel Rey
D
24
Miguel Gómez
12'
D
Miguel Gómez
12'
D
4
Miguel Tapias
D
Miguel Tapias
D
13
Óscar Whalley
G
Óscar Whalley
G
17
R. Marín
13'
F
R. Marín
13'
F
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
20
J. Gallardo
1 ⚽
D
J. Gallardo
1 ⚽
D
25
Everardo López
D
Everardo López
D
6
Federico Pereira
D
Federico Pereira
D
19
Santiago Simón
D
Santiago Simón
D
35
Érick Gutiérrez
59'
M
Érick Gutiérrez
59'
M
5
F. Romero
M
F. Romero
M
9
Alexis Vega
1 ⚽
70'
M
Alexis Vega
1 ⚽
70'
M
8
Nicolás Castro
87'
M
Nicolás Castro
87'
M
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
87'
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
87'
M
29
Jorge Díaz
F
Jorge Díaz
F
Bench
3
Antonio Briseño
D
Antonio Briseño
D
17
Brian García
D
Brian García
D
4
Bruno Méndez
11'
D
Bruno Méndez
11'
D
2
Diego Barbosa
D
Diego Barbosa
D
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
11'
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
11'
M
11
Helinho
1 👟
31'
F
Helinho
1 👟
31'
F
1
Hugo Gonzalez
G
Hugo Gonzalez
G
13
Luan
D
Luan
D
7
Víctor Guzmán
20'
M
Víctor Guzmán
20'
M
Best on the pitch
Federico Pereira
D · Toluca
8.70
1 shots
· 70 pass
Raúl Rangel
G · Guadalajara
8.50
· 29 pass
Helinho
F · Toluca
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 19 pass
Santiago Simón
D · Toluca
7.50
· 45 pass
Luis García
G · Toluca
7.50
· 42 pass
R. Alvarado
F · Guadalajara
7.20
2 shots
· 34 pass
Guadalajara Chivas — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Rangel | G | 90 | 8.50 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Diego Campillo | D | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 39 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Luis Romo | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 48 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| Daniel Aguirre | D | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 23% | 3 | — | — |
| Fernando González | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Bryan González | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Castañeda | M | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Omar Govea | M | 68 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 30 | 27% | 1 | — | — |
| Richard Ledezma | M | 56 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Á. Sepúlveda | F | 50 | 5.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 6% | — | — | 1 |
| R. Alvarado | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 25% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Armando González | F | 34 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Brian Gutiérrez | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Carrillo | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Gómez | D | 12 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Marín | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 42 | 35% | — | — | — |
| J. Gallardo | D | 90 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 51 | 40% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Everardo López | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 61 | 54% | 3 | — | — |
| Federico Pereira | D | 90 | 8.70 | — | — | 1 | 70 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 45 | 41% | 4 | — | — |
| Érick Gutiérrez | M | 59 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Romero | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 57 | 53% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alexis Vega | M | 70 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 37 | 34% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 87 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 62 | 56% | 1 | — | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M | 87 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Díaz | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 19 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Bruno Méndez | D | 11 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Fernando Arce Juárez | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Helinho | F | 31 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 19 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Víctor Guzmán | M | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 13% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
The final score was Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca.
What did the model predict before Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Guadalajara Chivas win, 32% to a draw, and 32% to an Toluca win.