Guimaraes 5–0 Tondela — pre-match prediction — Primeira Liga — April 03, 2026

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Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28 April 03, 2026 19:00 Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães

Guimaraes

#9 · 42 pts

5 – 0

Final score

Tondela

#17 · 28 pts

O. Camara (ast. G. Nogueira) 5'

M. Nogueira (ast. O. Camara) 18'

Samu 51' (pen.)

Gustavo 55'

J. I. Mendes 65' (pen.)

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Guimaraes a 48% win probability (draw 28%, Tondela 22%). The final result was Guimaraes 5–0 Tondela. In 1 previous meetings, Guimaraes have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Tondela.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.55

Actual xG

0.06

Saves

52%

Possession

48%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽O. Camara · ast. G. Nogueira

⚽M. Nogueira · ast. O. Camara

18'

47'

Brayan Medina

49'

⚽Samu (pen.)

51'

⚽Gustavo

55'

56'

R. Conceicao / E. Maviram ↕

56'

M. Aiko / Pedro Maranhao ↕

56'

M. Ouattara / A. van der Heide ↕

63'

⚽J. I. Mendes (pen.)

65'

↕ Samu / D. Sousa

67'

↕ M. Nogueira / N. Saviolo

67'

68'

H. Felix / Rony Lopes ↕

↕ Gustavo / T. Arcanjo

75'

↕ T. Strata / Maga

75'

80'

H. Tavares / J. Hodge ↕

↕ J. I. Mendes / O. Lebedenko

81'

Diogo Sousa

87'

Pre-match prediction

48.92%

Guimaraes ←

28.25%

22.84%

Tondela

we assigned to the actual result (Guimaraes) 48.92% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Guimaraes

1.31

2.55

+1.24

Tondela

0.90

0.06

-0.84

Guimaraes dominated by xG (2.55 vs 0.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	88
2	Sporting CP	34	82
3	Benfica	34	80
4	SC Braga	34	59
5	Famalicao	34	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	50
7	Moreirense	34	43
8	Arouca	34	42
9	Guimaraes	34	42
10	Estoril	34	39
11	Alverca	34	39
12	Rio Ave	34	36
13	Santa Clara	34	36
14	Nacional	34	34
15	Estrela	34	30
16	Casa Pia	34	30
17	Tondela	34	28
18	AVS	34	21

Lineups

Guimaraes 4-2-3-1

Charles G 6.60

João Mendes 1 ⚽ 81' D 7.30

Thiago Balieiro D 6.90

D 7.30

Tony Strata 75' D 6.90

Gonçalo Nogueira 1 👟 M 7.60

M 7.20

Oumar Camara 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 8.60

Samu 1 ⚽ 67' M 7.90

Miguel Nogueira 1 ⚽ 67' M 7.90

Gustavo Silva 1 ⚽ 75' F 7.70

Bench

Diogo Sousa 28' M 6.30

Miguel Maga 20' D 6.60

Noah Saviolo 28' F 6.50

Tondela 4-2-3-1

G 5.60

E. Maviram 56' D 5.30

B. Medina D 4.30

Christian Marques D 6.00

Bebeto D 5.90

Joe Hodge 80' M 5.60

M 6.30

Maranhão 56' M 6.00

Rony Lopes 68' M 6.20

Arjen Van Der Heide 56' M 6.50

F 6.20

Bench

Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka F

Hélder Tavares 15' M 6.70

Hugo Félix 27' M 6.30

João Silva D

L. Canizares G

Makan Aïko 39' F 6.60

M. Ouattara

Rodrigo Conceição 39' D 6.30

Tiago Manso D

Best on the pitch

Oumar Camara

M · Guimaraes

8.60

1 ⚽ 1 👟

1 shots · 21 pass

Samu

M · Guimaraes

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 24 pass

Miguel Nogueira

M · Guimaraes

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 23 pass

Gustavo Silva

F · Guimaraes

7.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 8 pass

Gonçalo Nogueira

M · Guimaraes

7.60

1 👟

1 shots · 34 pass

João Mendes

D · Guimaraes

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 25 pass

Guimaraes — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Charles	G	95	6.60	—	—	—	32	14%	—	—	—
João Mendes	D	81	7.30	1	—	1	25	22%	—	—	—
Thiago Balieiro	D	95	6.90	—	—	1	52	49%	1	—	—
	D	95	7.30	—	—	—	48	42%	2	—	—
Tony Strata	D	75	6.90	—	—	—	29	26%	2	—	—
Gonçalo Nogueira	M	95	7.60	—	1	1	34	33%	4	—	—
	M	95	7.20	—	—	—	52	50%	1	—	—
Oumar Camara	M	95	8.60	1	1	1	21	17%	1	—	—
Samu	M	67	7.90	1	—	1	24	21%	3	—	—
Miguel Nogueira	M	67	7.90	1	—	1	23	15%	3	—	—
Gustavo Silva	F	75	7.70	1	—	2	8	4%	—	—	—
Diogo Sousa	M	28	6.30	—	—	1	15	11%	2	1	—
Miguel Maga	D	20	6.60	—	—	—	6	4%	—	—	—
Noah Saviolo	F	28	6.50	—	—	1	3	3%	—	—	—

Tondela — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	95	5.60	—	—	—	26	18%	—	—	—
E. Maviram	D	56	5.30	—	—	1	28	18%	—	—	—
B. Medina	D	95	4.30	—	—	—	46	41%	1	1	—
Christian Marques	D	95	6.00	—	—	—	56	54%	2	—	—
Bebeto	D	95	5.90	—	—	—	37	33%	2	—	—
Joe Hodge	M	80	5.60	—	—	1	35	28%	1	—	—
	M	95	6.30	—	—	—	52	40%	2	—	—
Maranhão	M	56	6.00	—	—	—	10	7%	—	—	—
Rony Lopes	M	68	6.20	—	—	—	27	21%	2	—	—
Arjen Van Der Heide	M	56	6.50	—	—	1	11	9%	—	—	—
	F	95	6.20	—	—	—	10	6%	—	—	—
Hélder Tavares	M	15	6.70	—	—	—	5	4%	—	—	—
Hugo Félix	M	27	6.30	—	—	—	13	10%	—	—	—
Makan Aïko	F	39	6.60	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
Rodrigo Conceição	D	39	6.30	—	—	—	7	6%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Guimaraes vs Tondela?

The final score was Guimaraes 5–0 Tondela.

What did the model predict before Guimaraes vs Tondela?

The model assigned 48% probability to a Guimaraes win, 28% to a draw, and 22% to an Tondela win.