Guinea-Bissau - Madagascar
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
44.02%
Win
Guinea-Bissau
30.75%
Draw
25.23%
Win
Madagascar
1.29
0.57
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(14.66%)
1X2 Result
1
44%
X
31%
2
25%
Double Chance
1X
75%
X2
56%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
55%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Guinea-Bissau a 44% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Madagascar. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guinea-Bissau and 0.6 for Madagascar (total 1.9), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.66% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
0L
0W
1D
1L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
1.0
0.0
Conceded
1.5
4.5
Shots OT
3.0
2.0
Corners
2.5
43%
Poss.
52%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
50%
0%
BTTS
100%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Guinea-Bissau
Madagascar →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 20.1% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 5.6% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Guinea-Bissau
Attack
44
Defence
66
Form
76
Madagascar
Attack
31
Defence
55
Form
10
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group L
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Guinea-Bissau
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Nigeria
|
2 | 3 |
| 3 |
Tanzania
|
2 | 1 |
| 4 |
Madagascar
|
2 | 1 |
What's at stake · Group L
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #4 |
| → Guinea-Bissau | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #3 |
| → Madagascar | #1 | #2 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
The model gives Guinea-Bissau a 44% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 25% for an Madagascar win.
How many goals are expected in Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
Expected goals: Guinea-Bissau 1.3, Madagascar 0.6 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Guinea-Bissau vs Madagascar?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.66%.