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← Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.

Guinea - Eritrea

Africa Cup of Nations - Qual. November 11, 2026 18:00
Guinea
#2 · 3 pts
vs
Eritrea
#3 · 1 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.38%
Win
Guinea
33.22%
Draw
30.4%
Win
Eritrea
0.93
Expected xG
0.72

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.33%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 33%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 64%
12 67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5 55%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Guinea a 36% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Eritrea. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guinea and 0.7 for Eritrea (total 1.6), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.33% probability.

Season Stats

Guinea
1W 0D 1L
Eritrea
2W 1D 1L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.2
1.0
Conceded
1.8
2.5
Shots OT
5.0
4.5
Corners
3.0
48%
Poss.
34%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ Based on the last 4 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Guinea
1W 0D 0L · at home
Eritrea
1W 1D 0L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.5
0.0
Conceded
1.0
100%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
0%
O 1.5
100%
0%
O 2.5
50%
0%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
100%
100%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Guinea Eritrea →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 19.2% 13.8% 5.0% 1.2% 0.2% —
1 17.9% 12.9% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 8.3% 6.0% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% —
3 2.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% — —
4 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% — — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Guinea Guinea
W Kenya 1–0
L South Africa 2–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 37%
Eritrea Eritrea
L South Africa 0–5
D Kenya 1–1
W Eswatini 1–2
W Eswatini 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 23%

Playing profile

Guinea Guinea
Attack
26
Defence
68
Form
35
Eritrea Eritrea
Attack
37
Defence
44
Form
39
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Group D

# Team G Pts
1 South Africa South Africa 2 6
2 Guinea Guinea 2 3
3 Eritrea Eritrea 2 1
4 Kenya Kenya 2 1

What's at stake · Group D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Guinea Eritrea
Current #2 #3
→ Guinea #2 #4
→ Draw #2 #3
→ Eritrea #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Guinea vs Eritrea?
The model gives Guinea a 36% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 30% for an Eritrea win.
How many goals are expected in Guinea vs Eritrea?
Expected goals: Guinea 0.9, Eritrea 0.7 (total 1.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Guinea vs Eritrea?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.33%.