Eredivisie
· Regular Season - 30
April 11, 2026 21:00
✓Model correct — prediction Ajax
16'
(ast. J. Mokio)
M. Godts
17'
(ast. W. Weghorst)
S. Berghuis
47'
(ast. O. Gloukh)
S. Berghuis
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Ajax a 59% win probability (draw 22%, Heracles 17%). The final result was Heracles 0–3 Ajax. In 1 previous meetings, Heracles have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Ajax.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
13
3
Shots on target
6
1.25
Actual xG
1.92
3
Saves
3
40%
Possession
60%
7
Corners
5
24
Tackles
28
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
16'
ast. J. Mokio ·
M. Godts⚽
17'
ast. W. Weghorst ·
S. Berghuis⚽
T. Bruns
/ S. Cestic
46'
47'
ast. O. Gloukh ·
S. Berghuis⚽
N. Unuvar
/ L. Kulenovic
54'
J. Wieckhoff
/ D. van der Kust
55'
T. van Gilst
/ E. Ahlstrand
55'
I. Mesik
/ W. Ould Chikh
65'
66'
T. Tomiyasu
/
K. Itakura
Walid Ould-Chikh
74'
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
76'
78'
79'
Takehiro Tomiyasu
84'
O. Edvardsen
/
S. Berghuis
84'
S. Steur
/
O. Gloukh
87'
A. Bouwman
/
M. Godts
Pre-match prediction
17.98%
Heracles
22.46%
X
59.56%
Ajax ←
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Ajax)
59.56%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.60
1.25
+0.65
1.79
1.92
+0.13
Ajax dominated by xG (1.92 vs 1.25).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Remko Pasveer
G
Remko Pasveer
G
24
I. Mesík
65'
D
I. Mesík
65'
D
18
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
D
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
D
4
D
3
Jannes Wieckhoff
55'
D
Jannes Wieckhoff
55'
D
32
Sem Scheperman
M
Sem Scheperman
M
10
Thomas Bruns
45'
M
Thomas Bruns
45'
M
9
N. Unuvar
54'
M
8
Mario Engels
M
Mario Engels
M
17
Tristan van Gilst
55'
M
Tristan van Gilst
55'
M
25
Lequincio Zeefuik
F
Lequincio Zeefuik
F
Bench
5
Djevencio van der Kust
35'
D
Djevencio van der Kust
35'
D
6
Sava Arangel Čestić
45'
D
Sava Arangel Čestić
45'
D
73
Walid Ould-Chikh
25'
M
Walid Ould-Chikh
25'
M
26
G
2
D
15
D
37
D
3
Anton Gaaei
D
Anton Gaaei
D
24
1 👟
M
4
K. Itakura
66'
M
K. Itakura
66'
M
10
Oscar Gloukh
1 👟
84'
M
Oscar Gloukh
1 👟
84'
M
11
M. Godts
1 ⚽
87'
F
M. Godts
1 ⚽
87'
F
25
W. Weghorst
1 👟
F
W. Weghorst
1 👟
F
23
Steven Berghuis
2 ⚽
84'
F
Steven Berghuis
2 ⚽
84'
F
Bench
19
Don-Angelo Konadu
F
Don-Angelo Konadu
F
9
Kasper Dolberg
F
Kasper Dolberg
F
53
M. van der Lans
D
17
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
13'
F
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
13'
F
5
O. Wijndal
D
O. Wijndal
D
52
Paul Reverson
G
Paul Reverson
G
48
Sean Steur
13'
M
Sean Steur
13'
M
32
T. Tomiyasu
13'
D
T. Tomiyasu
13'
D
Best on the pitch
Steven Berghuis
F · Ajax
9.60
2 ⚽
5 shots
· 40 pass
D · Ajax
7.90
· 52 pass
M. Godts
F · Ajax
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 37 pass
Oscar Gloukh
M · Ajax
7.50
1 👟
1 shots
· 51 pass
D · Ajax
7.50
· 53 pass
G · Ajax
7.30
· 33 pass
Heracles — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remko Pasveer | G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 34 | 22% | — | — | — |
| I. Mesík | D | 65 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 3 | — | — |
| Alec Van Hoorenbeeck | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 35% | 2 | — | — | |
| Jannes Wieckhoff | D | 55 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| Sem Scheperman | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Thomas Bruns | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 17% | 4 | — | — |
| N. Unuvar | M | 54 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| Mario Engels | M | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Tristan van Gilst | M | 55 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Lequincio Zeefuik | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Djevencio van der Kust | D | 35 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 3 | — | — |
| Sava Arangel Čestić | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 25 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Walid Ould-Chikh | M | 25 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
Ajax — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 53 | 49% | 4 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 48% | 3 | — | — | |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 69 | 64% | 2 | — | — | |
| Anton Gaaei | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 4 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 3 | 35 | 28% | 7 | — | — | |
| K. Itakura | M | 66 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 38 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| Oscar Gloukh | M | 84 | 7.50 | — | 1 | 1 | 51 | 48% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Godts | F | 87 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 37 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Weghorst | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 36 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| Steven Berghuis | F | 84 | 9.60 | 2 | — | 5 | 40 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Oliver Valaker Edvardsen | F | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Steur | M | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| T. Tomiyasu | D | 13 | 4.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 8% | 1 | — | 1 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Heracles vs Ajax?
The final score was Heracles 0–3 Ajax.
What did the model predict before Heracles vs Ajax?
The model assigned 17% probability to a Heracles win, 22% to a draw, and 59% to an Ajax win.